What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of El Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model     

XU Huiand DUAN Wansuo State Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences  Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 《大气科学进展》2008,(4)

With the Zebiak-Cane(ZC)model,the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP).The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model.By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors,we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak El Nino events in the ZC model,the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP.For the relatively strong El Nino events,the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities.Also,our results suggest that the error growth of El Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO.The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth.The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most diffcult.A linear singular vector(LSV)approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO,but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model.This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes.CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty.That is to say,the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error.This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation.It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.  相似文献   

周口店多足类化石     

贾兰坡  刘宪亭 《地质学报》1950,30(Z1)

1932—1937年间在周口店中国猿人产地及其他地点采得八十馀件节足动物化石,多破碎,完整者极少。颜色不一,由乳白而棕黄,兼有呈半透明玻璃状者。经初步观察,应属节足动物门,多足纲,倍脚目,马陆科,计一属两种: 一、山马陆(Julus of.terrestris)此种在第一,三,十五地点及山顶洞均有发现。此与现生的山马陆无甚差异,仅肛板及由二肛板所成之肛门沟稍大。二、裴氏小马陆(Julus peii Chia & Liu(sp.nov.)此种於第一,四,十五地点及山顶洞均有发现。由身体及头部形态,身体环节数目(三十个以上),知其与山马陆同属。但其决非幼小山马陆,因其体节数目多於长成之山马陆。但与现生於日本的一种 Nipponoiulus truncatus 近似,惟後者体节数较少,尾端钝圆。关於马陆属化石,据现在所知最早发现於始新统地层中,直到现在仍有生存,变异极小。以上所述二种若非与其他脊椎动物化石共生於周口店地点,则其年代颇难鉴定,因其有以後爬入岩隙死後石化之可能,不过上述之标本不但有共生脊椎动物为证,且有的已埋藏於固结的砾岩中,其属於更新统时期可无疑义。  相似文献   

Revision of the Chingyen Triassic Fauna from Kueichou     

TE-YOU HSU  K. CHEN Geological Survey of China 《地质学报》1943,(Z2):130-139

正 INTRODUCTION About half a century ago, P. Fuchs collected a rich Triassic fauna from Sitzishan, Tsin-ngai, Kueichou. This was studied by E. Koken~1 who described the following species: Worthenia tuberculifera (I)~a, W. nuda (2), Pleurotomaria  相似文献   

On the Unconformity between the Triassic and Jurassic in Weiyuan, Szechuan     

T.K.HUANA  H.H.YAO Geological Survey of China 《地质学报》1940,(Z1)

To the north of the famous Tseliutsing salt district of central Szechuanthere exists a big dome-anticline, which is clearly shown in Tan and Lee's [1]Atlas for "Geology of Szechuan and Sikang." Since this anticline occupies thegreater part of the district of Weiyuan, it may be conveniently termed the  相似文献   

On the Possible Oil Fields in Szechuan as Indicated by Isocarb Lines     

Y.HCHIN  V.C.IUAN 《地质学报》1940,(Z1)

Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION From the considerations of the scattered oil occurrences and suitablegeological structures, the Red Basin of Szechuan has long been regarded as apromising country for oil prospecting. In the last decade much attention hasbeen paid by geologists and engineers to the search for oil resources in certain  相似文献   

A preliminary report on the recent eruptions of Hibok-Hibok volcano,Camiguin Island,Philippines     

Philippine Geodetic  Geophysical Institute 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1952,12(1):215-225

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An Outline of the Geological Structure of the Western Hills of Peiping     

C.Y.HSIEH 《地质学报》1937,(Z1)

As a pioneer worker in almost every phase of the Chinese geology,the late Dr. V. K. Ting was also a pioneer and enthusiastic worker inthe geology of the Western Hills. It was due to his noble effort andsupervision that the first systematic investigation of 1916 was carried out  相似文献   

Fundamental Concepts in Geology and Their Bearing on Chinese Stratigraphy     

A.W.GRABAU 《地质学报》1937,(Z1)

Students of Geology are today confronted with the necessity of anew attitude, which they have to take towards a number of fundamentalgeological concepts which have arisen within the last decade or two.  相似文献   

Contribution to the Marine Lower Triassic Fauna of Southern China     

TE-YOU HSU 《地质学报》1937,(Z1)

Early in 1936 Dr. T. K. Huang, Messrs. S. F. Sheng, I. Ting andK. S. Tsui during their field work in the Changhsing coal field, NWChekiang, found Scythic pelecypods and ammonoids in the so-calledChinglung limestone of that region. The discovery of Lower Triassic  相似文献   

STRATIGRAPHY OF SOUTHEASTERN HUPEI     

谢家榮 《地质学报》1924,3(2)

The geology, of the southeastern part or Hupei has been studied by Mr. Seijirro Noda of the Japanese Geographical Society in 1912. A geological map in the scale of 1:400,000 was prepared by him, covering the districts Ta Yeh, Yang Sing, O Cheng and Wu Chang. Mr. Noda classified the sedimentary rocks into the following series:  相似文献