Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches     

Christian Onof 《水文研究》2013,27(11):1600-1614

Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Post‐rift uplift of the Dhofar margin (Gulf of Aden)     

François Bache  Sylvie Leroy  Céline Baurion  Jérémy Robinet  Christian Gorini  Francis Lucazeau  Philippe Razin  Elia d'Acremont  Khalfan Al‐Toubi 《地学学报》2011,23(1):11-18

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Quantifying Data Worth Toward Reducing Predictive Uncertainty     

Alyssa M. Dausman  John Doherty  Christian D. Langevin  Michael C. Sukop 《Ground water》2010,48(5):729-740

The present study demonstrates a methodology for optimization of environmental data acquisition. Based on the premise that the worth of data increases in proportion to its ability to reduce the uncertainty of key model predictions, the methodology can be used to compare the worth of different data types, gathered at different locations within study areas of arbitrary complexity. The method is applied to a hypothetical nonlinear, variable density numerical model of salt and heat transport. The relative utilities of temperature and concentration measurements at different locations within the model domain are assessed in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with predictions of movement of the salt water interface in response to a decrease in fresh water recharge. In order to test the sensitivity of the method to nonlinear model behavior, analyses were repeated for multiple realizations of system properties. Rankings of observation worth were similar for all realizations, indicating robust performance of the methodology when employed in conjunction with a highly nonlinear model. The analysis showed that while concentration and temperature measurements can both aid in the prediction of interface movement, concentration measurements, especially when taken in proximity to the interface at locations where the interface is expected to move, are of greater worth than temperature measurements. Nevertheless, it was also demonstrated that pairs of temperature measurements, taken in strategic locations with respect to the interface, can also lead to more precise predictions of interface movement.  相似文献   

Stratigraphic simulations of the shelf of the Gulf of Lions: testing subsidence rates and sea‐level curves during the Pliocene and Quaternary     

Estelle Leroux  Marina Rabineau  Daniel Aslanian  Didier Granjeon  Laurence Droz  Christian Gorini 《地学学报》2014,26(3):230-238

Determining the relative importance of factors interacting to control stratigraphic organization is a key issue in sedimentology. The Pliocene‐Quaternary chronostratigraphy on the Gulf of Lions platform is still poorly constrained, giving rise to different interpretations of the evolution of its subsidence through time. This paper examines the Pliocene‐Quaternary sedimentary filling of the Gulf of Lion's shelf with Dionisos, a numerical stratigraphic model. Our results show that a constant subsidence rate accurately reproduces the observed geometries, whereas a varying subsidence rate reproduces them only if the acceleration of subsidence is limited. At this time‐scale, a third‐order eustatic curve is also reappraised: a higher resolution curve (built using δ¹⁸O measurements) gives a more realistic restitution of our stratigraphic markers. Finally, the constant subsidence rate and sediment fluxes implied in these modellings are discussed relative to climate and local factors of sedimentation.  相似文献   

Switching of a paleo-ice stream in northwest Svalbard     

Sudipta Sarkar  Christian Berndt  Anne Chabert  Douglas G. Masson  Timothy A. Minshull  Graham K. Westbrook 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(13-14):1710-1725

Ice streams are the fast-flowing zones of ice sheets that can discharge a large flux of ice. The glaciated western Svalbard margin consists of several cross-shelf troughs which are the former ice stream drainage pathways during the Pliocene–Pleistocene glaciations. From an integrated analysis of high-resolution multibeam swath-bathymetric data and several high-resolution two-dimensional reflection seismic profiles across the western and northwestern Svalbard margin we infer the ice stream flow directions and the deposition centres of glacial debris that the ice streams deposited on the outer margin. Our results show that the northwestern margin of Svalbard experienced a switching of a major ice stream. Based on correlation with the regional seismic stratigraphy as well as the results from ODP 911 on Yermak Plateau and ODP 986 farther south on the western margin of Spitsbergen, off Van Mijenfjord, we find that first a northwestward flowing ice stream developed during initial northern hemispheric cooling (starting ～2.8–2.6 Ma). A switch in ice stream flow direction to the present-day Kongsfjorden cross-shelf trough took place during a glaciation at ～1.5 Ma or probably later during an intensive major glaciation phase known as the ‘Mid-Pleistocene Revolution’ starting at ～1.0 Ma. The seismic and bathymetric data suggest that the switch was abrupt rather than gradual and we attribute it to the reaching of a tipping point when growth of the Svalbard ice sheet had reached a critical thickness and the ice sheet could overcome a topographic barrier.  相似文献   

“We Don’t Take the Pledge”: Environmentality and environmental skepticism at the epicenter of US wind energy development     

Wendy Jepson  Christian Brannstrom  Nicole Persons 《Geoforum》2012,43(4):851-863

This study analyzes pro-wind, “anti-environmental” discourses prevalent among key stakeholders in Nolan County, Texas, the epicenter of US wind power. We draw upon interviews conducted within a Q-method study to examine environmental views held by key actors in wind-farm development. We frame our analysis within the theoretical field that engages the formation of environmental subjects, defined as the process through which individuals and communities align their environmental practices with state ends. We argue that this is a process that can be incomplete or in tension with other subject positions, which together may lead to unexpected environmental views. We introduce “environmental skepticism,” defined as a rejection of ecological science steeped in deep anthropocentrism and possessive individualism, as a dominant counter-narrative informing certain environmental subjectivities. The remainder of the paper describes Texas wind stakeholders’ views or subject positions on energy and the environment and reveals how environmental skepticism is not overturned even as renewable energy supports the local economy. We analyze wind stakeholders’ environmental subjectivity in terms of emergent subject positions as “reflexive environmental skepticism,” a view that accepts the economic products, processes, and policy innovations advocated by ecological modernization without accepting the core claim that innovations are required to adapt to environmental change.  相似文献   

The hydrochemical identification of groundwater flowing to the Bet She’an-Harod multiaquifer system (Lower Jordan Valley) by rare earth elements,yttrium, stable isotopes (H,O) and Tritium     

Christian Siebert  Eliahu Rosenthal  Peter Möller  Tino Rödiger  Miki Meiler 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

The Bet She’an and Harod Valleys in Israel are regional recipients and mixing zones for groundwater draining from a multiple aquifer system, which includes carbonate and basalt aquifers and deep-seated pressurized brines. The aquifers drain through two types of outlets, distinct and mixed. The latter type is mainly conditioned by the occurrence of fault-blocks related to the Jordan Rift system, which act as connecting media between the aquifers and facilitate interaquifer flow. Conjoint application of rare earth element distribution and water isotopes enables detection of the local areas replenishment by rainfall infiltration and, in connection with the position of wells or springs, the identification of groundwater flow paths. Once stationary equilibria are established changes of REY composition between REY in groundwater and their surface adsorption, are negligible. In areas with little soil coverage and vegetation even recharge over young Tertiary and diagenetic Cretaceous limestones is distinguishable by their REY distribution patterns. Groundwater recharged over Tertiary limestones show higher REY abundance and more significant Ce anomalies than those derived from the Cretaceous limestones. Weathering of alkali olivine basalts leads to REY patterns in groundwater depleted in the middle REE. The improved knowledge of the hydrological systems is thought to be useful for regional hydrogeological modeling and for designing rational water management schemes.  相似文献   

Thermodynamic data provided through the FUNMIG project: Analyses and prospective     

Pascal E. Reiller  Thomas Vercouter  Lara Duro  Christian Ekberg 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

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ANIE: A mathematical algorithm for automated indexing of planar deformation features in quartz grains     

Matthew S. HUBER  Ludovic FERRIÈRE  Anna LOSIAK  Christian KOEBERL 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2011,46(9):1418-1424

Abstract– Planar deformation features (PDFs) in quartz, one of the most commonly used diagnostic indicators of shock metamorphism, are planes of amorphous material that follow crystallographic orientations, and can thus be distinguished from non‐shock‐induced fractures in quartz. The process of indexing data for PDFs from universal‐stage measurements has traditionally been performed using a manual graphical method, a time‐consuming process in which errors can easily be introduced. A mathematical method and computer algorithm, which we call the Automated Numerical Index Executor (ANIE) program for indexing PDFs, was produced, and is presented here. The ANIE program is more accurate and faster than the manual graphical determination of Miller–Bravais indices, as it allows control of the exact error used in the calculation and removal of human error from the process.  相似文献   

Imaging X-ray Polarimeter for Solar Flares (IXPS)     

Michael Hosack  J. Kevin Black  Philip Deines-Jones  Brian R. Dennis  Joanne E. Hill  Keith Jahoda  Albert Y. Shih  Christian E. Urba  A. Gordon Emslie 《Experimental Astronomy》2011,32(2):101-125

We describe the design of a balloon-borne Imaging X-ray Polarimeter for Solar flares (IXPS). This novel instrument, a Time Projection Chamber (TPC) for photoelectric polarimetry, will be capable of measuring polarization at the few percent level in the 20?C50 keV energy range during an M- or X-class flare, and will provide imaging information at the ??10 arcsec level. The primary objective of such observations is to determine the directivity of nonthermal high-energy electrons producing solar hard X-rays, and hence to learn about the particle acceleration and energy release processes in solar flares. Secondary objectives include the separation of the thermal and nonthermal components of the flare X-ray emissions and the separation of photospheric albedo fluxes from direct emissions.  相似文献