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71.
Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Donald Scavia John C. Field Donald F. Boesch Robert W. Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R. Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A. Harwell Robert W. Howarth Curt Mason Denise J. Reed Thomas C. Royer Asbury H. Sallenger James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. 相似文献
72.
Joseph J. Luczkovich Garcy P. Ward Jeffrey C. Johnson Robert R. Christian Daniel Baird Hilary Neckles William M. Rizzo 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(6):1143-1163
We established trophic guilds of macroinvertebrate and fish taxa using correspondence analysis and a hierarchical clustering strategy for a seagrass food web in winter in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. To create the diet matrix, we characterized the trophic linkages of macroinvertebrate and fish taxa present inHalodule wrightii seagrass habitat areas within the St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge (Florida) using binary data, combining dietary links obtained from relevant literature for macroinvertebrates with stomach analysis of common fishes collected during January and February of 1994. Heirarchical average-linkage cluster analysis of the 73 taxa of fishes and macroinvertebrates in the diet matrix yielded 14 clusters with diet similarity ≥ 0.60. We then used correspondence analysis with three factors to jointly plot the coordinates of the consumers (identified by cluster membership) and of the 33 food sources. Correspondence analysis served as a visualization tool for assigning each taxon to one of eight trophic guilds: herbivores, detritivores, suspension feeders, omnivores, molluscivores, meiobenthos consumers, macrobenthos consumers and piscivores. These trophic groups, corss-classified with major taxonomic groups, were further used to develop consumer compartments in a network analysis model of carbon flow in this seagrass ecosystem. The method presented here should greatly improve the development of future network models of food webs by providing an objective procedure for aggregating trophic groups. 相似文献
73.
Roberto J. Llansó Lisa C. Scott Jeffrey L. Hyland Daniel M. Dauer David E. Russell Frederick W. Kutz 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(6):1231-1242
A benthic index of biotic integrity was developed for use in estuaries of the mid-Atlantic region of the United States (Delaware Bay estuary through Albemarle-Pamlico Sound). The index was developed for the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Program (MAIA) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using procedures similar to those applied previously in Chesapeake Bay and southeastern estuaries, and was based on sampling in July through early October. Data from seven federal and state sampling programs were used to categorize sites as degraded or non-degraded based on dissolved oxygen, sediment contaminant, and sediment toxicity criteria. Various metrics of benthic community structure and function that distinguished between degraded and reference (non-degraded) sites were selected for each of five major habitat types defined by classification analysis of assemblages. Each metric was scored according to thresholds established on the distribution of values at reference sites, so that sites with low scoring metrics would be expected to show signs of degradation. For each habitat, metrics that correctly classified at least 50% of the degraded sites in the calibration data set were selected whenever possible to derive the index. The final index integrated the average score of the combination of metrics that performed best according to several criteria. Selected metrics included measures of productivity (abundance), diversity (number of taxa, Shannon-Wiener diversity, percent dominance), species composition and life history (percent abundance of pollution-indicative taxa, percent abundance of pollution-sensitive taxa, percent abundance of Bivalvia, Tanypodinae-Chironomidae abundance ratio), and trophic composition (percent abundance of deep-deposit feeders). The index correctly classified 82% of all sites in an independent data set. Classification efficiencies of sites were higher in the mesohaline and polyhaline habitats (81–92%) than in the oligohaline (71%) and the tidal freshwater (61%). Although application of the index to low salinity habitats should be done with caution, the MAIA index appeared to be quite reliable with a high likelihood of correctly identifying both degraded and non-degraded conditions. The index is expected to be of great utility in regional assessments as a tool for evaluating the integrity of benthic assemblages and tracking their condition over time. 相似文献
74.
Marianne Font Jean-Louis Lagarde Daniel Amorese Jean-Pierre Coutard Jean-Claude Ozouf 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(3):171-178
The degradation of the Jobourg fault-scarp occurred by cryoclastic processes in a periglacial environment during a part of Quaternary time. An attempt of quantification indicates a bulk scarp erosion of about 39 m3 m?2, while the head accumulated at the bottom of the fault scarp only represents 4.6 m3 m?2. To cite this article: M. Font et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 171–178. 相似文献
75.
Seismic reflection methods provide continuous access both to stratigraphy (vertical) and to subsurface morphology (horizontal), for which the scales of interest may differ by orders of magnitude. Seismic surveys of Quaternary successions have generally sought to optimise vertical resolution, through the use of higher source frequency content. Here, I show that low-frequency bandwidth is not necessarily a limiting factor for the seismic resolution of glacigenic morpho-sedimentary features. Observations are presented from a buried network of large mid-Pleistocene (Elsterian) tunnel-valleys in the southern North Sea Basin, across a 100×130 km study area with water depths less than 30 m. Low-frequency 2D and 3D seismic multi-channel data, acquired for deeper hydrocarbon exploration, are compared with previously available high-frequency single- and multi-channel profiles (5–15 km grid spacing). The low-frequency data contribute to a new understanding of the basal morphology and fill stratigraphy of the tunnel-valleys, in part due to higher data densities (≥1 km grid spacing), but also to improved imaging of reflectors at depth. The tunnel-valleys are seen to be overdeepened troughs, shallow (≤0.5 km) relative to their widths (≤6 km). The basal unconformity defines a series of arborescent elements, convergent to the south; erosional overlap by younger elements to the north has resulted in anastomosing patterns in places. The fill is dominated by axially downlapping clinoforms, descending to the north, onlapped and overlain by subhorizontal reflectors. Well data show that sand-dominated glaciofluvial sediments are overlain by glaciolacustrine to marine muds. Better definition of the clinoforms on low- versus high-frequency multi-channel data is suggested to reflect the coarse spatial scale of the backset glaciofluvial strata. The results support a simple interpretation of time-transgressive tunnel-valley formation by coeval glaciofluvial erosion and backfill beneath the outer tens of kilometres of the northward receding Elsterian ice sheet margin. Comparable submarginal interpretations have been proposed for drainage features (tunnel-valleys and eskers) of the last deglaciation of both northern Europe and North America using integrated geomorphologic and stratigraphic methods. Commercial 2D and 3D seismic data are widely available from exploration areas such as the North Sea and are argued to constitute an underexploited resource for Quaternary research. 相似文献
76.
Direct-current (DC) resistivity tomography has been applied to different mountain permafrost regions. Despite problems with the very high resistivities of the frozen material, plausible results were obtained. Inversions with synthetic data revealed that an appropriate choice of regularization constraints was important, and that a joint analysis of several tomograms computed with different constraints was required to judge the reliability of individual features. The theoretical results were verified with three field experiments conducted in the Swiss and the Italian Alps. At the first site, near Zermatt, Switzerland, the location and the approximate lateral and vertical extent of an ice core within a moraine could be delineated. On the Murtel rock glacier, eastern Swiss Alps, a steeply dipping boundary at its frontal part was observed, and extremely high resistivities of several MΩ indicated a high ice content. The base of the rock glacier remained unresolved by the DC resistivity measurements, but it could be constrained with transient EM soundings. On another rock glacier near the Stelvio Pass, eastern Italian Alps, DC resistivity tomography allowed delineation of the rock glacier base, and the only moderately high resistivities within the rock glacier body indicated that the ice content must be lower compared with the Murtel rock glacier. 相似文献
77.
This article presents a numeric comparative study of the inelastic structural response of base isolated buildings. The comparative study includes the following isolation systems: laminated rubber bearings, New Zealand one, pure friction and the frictional pendulum ones. The study is based on obtaining non‐linear response spectra for various design parameters using six earthquake records. Usually the base isolation of a new building seeks to maintain the structure in the linear elastic range. The response of old weak buildings or the response of new ones subjected to extreme earthquakes may not be, necessarily, in the aforementioned ideal elastic range. Consequently, it is important to characterize the response of isolated buildings responding inelastically. A conclusion from this research is that the isolators affect significantly the structural response of weak systems. Rubber isolators seem slightly less sensitive to plastification that may occur in the structure compared to friction isolators. Ductility demands in the structure are affected significantly by friction and neoprene protected systems, in particular sliding ones where larger demands are obtained. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
78.
Daniel G. Gavin W. Wyatt Oswald Eugene R. Wahl John W. Williams 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):356-367
The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog. 相似文献
79.
To reconstruct oceanographic variations in the subtropical South Pacific, 271-year long subseasonal time series of Sr/Ca and δ18O were generated from a coral growing at Rarotonga (21.5°S, 159.5°W). In this case, coral Sr/Ca appears to be an excellent proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) and coral δ18O is a function of both SST and seawater δ18O composition (δ18Osw). Here, we focus on extracting the δ18Osw signal from these proxy records. A method is presented assuming that coral Sr/Ca is solely a function of SST and that coral δ18O is a function of both SST and δ18Osw. This method separates the effects of δ18Osw from SST by breaking the instantaneous changes of coral δ18O into separate contributions by instantaneous SST and δ18Osw changes, respectively. The results show that on average δ18Osw at Rarotonga explains ∼39% of the variance in δ18O and that variations in SST explains the remaining ∼61% of δ18O variance. Reconstructed δ18Osw shows systematic increases in summer months (December-February) consistent with the regional pattern of variations in precipitation and evaporation. The δ18Osw also shows a positive linear correlation with satellite-derived estimated salinity for the period 1980 to 1997 (r = 0.72). This linear correlation between reconstructed δ18Osw and salinity makes it possible to use the reconstructed δ18Osw to estimate the past interannual and decadal salinity changes in this region. Comparisons of coral δ18O and δ18Osw at Rarotonga with the Pacific decadal oscillation index suggest that the decadal and interdecadal salinity and SST variability at Rarotonga appears to be related to basin-scale decadal variability in the Pacific. 相似文献
80.
Mrio Neto Cavalcanti de Araújo Fernando Csar Alves da Silva Emanuel Ferraz Jardim de S Rodney J. Holcombe Paulo Marcos de Vasconcelos 《Journal of Structural Geology》2003,25(12):2089-2107
The polyphase evolution of the Seridó Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D1 crust formation at 2.3–2.1 Ga, D2 thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D3 strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D2 and D3 events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D2 shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600–650 °C) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz c-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from c-prism to positive and negative a-rhombs. During D3, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D3 granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D3 shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from a-prism to a-basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 °C. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Seridó Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths. 相似文献