一个三维水动力学模型及其在水环境中的适用性试验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

秦伯强  David K.Stevens 《水科学进展》2001,12(2):143-152

发展了一个三维水动力学模型.该模型在水底磨擦项计算中,采用了流速的平方根法;在湍流扩散系数的估算中,采用了带稳定度函数的参数化方案;对垂直方向上的坐标进行了压缩,引入σ坐标;对时间变量则采用了分离模式技术,即外部模式(快过程)与内部模式(慢过程);而求解外部模式时,采用了显式一隐式格式交错法(ADI),从而使模型不仅计算时间缩短,且可应用于水很深而水平空间尺度很小,又有热力分层的水域中.最后作为该模型的一个实用性试验,选择了美国犹他州East Canyon水库,利用该模型探讨了温跃层对风、人流及出流变化的响应情况.  相似文献   

Holes in the Hα Eruptive Prominence Structure     

Stanislava Šimberová  Marian Karlický  Michal Varady  Gerhard Rank 《Solar physics》2001,201(1):119-131

The eruptive prominence observed on 27 May 1999 in H at Ondejov Observatory is analyzed using image-processing techniques. To understand the physical processes behind the prominence eruption, heated structures inside the cold H prominence material are sought. Two local minima of intensity (holes), the first above and the second below the erupting H prominence, have been found in the processed H images. A comparison of H images with the SOHO/EIT and Yohkoh/SXT images showed: (a) the cold H prominence is visible as a dark feature in the EIT images, (b) the upper local minimum of intensity in the H image corresponds to a hot structure seen in EIT, (c) the lower minimum corresponds to a hot loop observed by SXT. The physical significance of the H intensity minima and their relation to the hot structures observed by EIT and SXT is discussed. The time sequence of observed processes is in favor of the prominence eruption model with the destabilization of the loop spanning the prominence. For comparison with other events the velocities of selected parts of the eruptive prominence are determined.  相似文献   

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction     

James Glimm  Shuling Hou  Hongjoong Kim  Yoon-ha Lee  David H. Sharp  Kenny Ye  Qisu Zou 《Computational Geosciences》2001,5(3):173-197

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.  相似文献   

Surface Soil Effects Study Using Short-period Microtremor Observations in Almería City, Southern Spain     

M. Navarro  T. Enomoto  F. J. Sánchez  I. Matsuda  T. Iwatate  A. M. Posadas  F. Luzón  F. Vidal  K. Seo 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2001,158(12):2481-2497

—?In Almería city large earthquakes occurred and many buildings were completely destroyed in these historical earthquakes. The actual population of Almería city is about 200,000 people. This population is rapidly increasing and new urbanizing areas are growing to the eastern part of the city where they are located in softer soil conditions. Consequently, the evaluation of surface soil conditions is very important from a standpoint of earthquake disaster mitigation. We have obtained a landform classification map developed by analysing aerial photos, large-scale topographic maps and 80 borehole data. Eleven unit areas, which have different soil conditions, were inferred from this research. Also, S-wave velocity prospecting tests were carried out at several sites within the city. The shear-velocity values of the ground vary from 1689?m/s in hard rock to 298?m/s in soft soil. These results are useful for understanding the uppermost soil characteristics and are used for soil classification. Finally, short-period microtremor observations were densely carried out in the research area and NAKAMURA's method (1989) was applied for determining predominant periods. Microtremors were observed at about 173 sites with mainly 400?m interval in rock sites and 200?m interval in relatively soft soil sites. From the result of these microtremor measurements, the predominant period determined at rock site, in the western part of the city and historic area, is very short, about 0.1?s, and very stable. However at soft soil sites, in the center of the city, near Zapillo Beach and in the newly developed urban area, the predominant period is about 1.0?s and even larger in concordance with the geological conditions. Finally, at medium soil sites, in the eastern part of the city, the predominant period is about 0.4?s and it appears very stable in the whole region. The difference of predominant periods between hard rock and soft soil sites is very clear and it has been observed that the distribution of predominant periods depends heavily on the surface soil conditions.  相似文献   

Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Irene Fischer-Bruns  H. von Storch  J. F. González-Rouco  E. Zorita 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(5):461-476

The output of several multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is examined with respect to the variability of global storm activity in winter on time scales of decades and longer. The frequency of maximum wind speed events within a grid box, using the lower limits on the Beaufort wind speed scale of 8 and 10 Bft as thresholds, is taken as the characteristic parameter. Two historical climate runs with time-dependent forcing of the last five centuries, one control simulation, and three climate change experiments are considered. The storm frequency shows no trend until recently. Global maps for the industrially influenced period hardly differ from pre-industrial maps, even though significant temperature anomalies temporarily emerge in the historical runs. Two indicators describing the frequency and the regional shift of storm activity are determined. In historical times they are decoupled from temperature. Variations in solar and volcanic forcing in the historical simulations as well as in greenhouse gas concentrations for the industrially influenced period are not related to variations in storm activity. Also, anomalous temperature regimes like the Late Maunder Minimum are not associated with systematic storm conditions. In the climate change experiments, a poleward shift of storm activity is found in all three storm track regions. Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, storm activity increases, while it decreases over the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the historical runs, and with the exception of the North Pacific storm frequency index, the storm indices parallel the development of temperature, exceeding the 2 σ-range of pre-industrial variations in the early twenty-first century.  相似文献   

The 2001 Mesoscale Convective Systems over Iberia and the Balearic Islands     

R. García-Herrera  D. Barriopedro  E. Hernández  D. Paredes  J. F. Correoso  L. Prieto 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2005,90(3-4):225-243

Summary This paper characterizes Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) during 2001 over Iberia and the Balearic Islands and their meteorological settings. Enhanced infrared Meteosat imagery has been used to detect their occurrence over the Western Mediterranean region between June and December 2001 according to satellite-defined criteria based on the MCS physical characteristics. Twelve MCSs have been identified. The results show that the occurrence of 2001 MCSs is limited to the August–October period, with September being the most active period. They tend to develop during the late afternoon or early night, with preferred eastern Iberian coast locations and eastward migrations. A cloud shield area of 50.000 km² is rarely exceeded. When our results are compared with previous studies, it is possible to assert that though 2001 MCS activity was moderate, the convective season was substantially less prolonged than usual, with shorter MCS life cycles and higher average speeds. The average MCS precipitation rate was 3.3 mm·h⁻¹ but a wide range of values varying from scarce precipitation to intense events of 130 mm·24 h⁻¹ (6 September) were collected. The results suggest that, during 2001, MCS rainfall was the principal source of precipitation in the Mediterranean region during the convective season, but its impact varied according to the location. Synoptic analysis based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis show that several common precursors could be identified over the Western Mediterranean Sea when the 2001 MCSs occurred: a low-level tongue of moist air and precipitable water (PW) exceeding 25 mm through the southern portion of the Western Mediterranean area, low-level zonal warm advection over 2 °C·24 h⁻¹ towards eastern Iberia, a modest 1000–850 hPa equivalent potential temperature (θ_e) difference over 20 °C located close to the eastern Iberian coast, a mid level trough (sometimes a cut-off low) over Northern Africa or Southern Spain and high levels geostrophic vorticity advection exceeding 12·10⁻¹⁰ s⁻² over eastern Iberia and Northern Africa. Finally, the results suggest that synoptic, orographic and a warm-air advection were the most relevant forcing mechanisms during 2001.  相似文献   

Formation and pathways of North Atlantic Deep Water in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic–North Atlantic Oceans     

David A. Bailey  Peter B. Rhines  Sirpa Häkkinen 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(5):497-516

We investigate the formation process and pathways of deep water masses in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The intent is to determine the relative roles of these water masses from the different source regions (Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas, and Subpolar Atlantic) in the meridional overturning circulation. The model exhibits significant decadal variability in the deep western boundary current and the overturning circulation. We use detailed diagnostics to understand the process of water mass formation in the model and the resulting effects on the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Particular emphasis is given to the multiple sources of North Atlantic Deep Water, the dominant deep water masses of the world ocean. The correct balance of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea sources is difficult to achieve in climate models, owing to small-scale sinking and convection processes. The global overturning circulation is described as a function of potential temperature and salinity, which more clearly signifies dynamical processes and clarifies resolution problems inherent to the high latitude oceans. We find that fluxes of deep water masses through various passages in the model are higher than observed estimates. Despite the excessive volume flux, the Nordic Seas overflow waters are diluted by strong mixing and enter the Labrador Sea at a lighter density. Through strong subpolar convection, these waters along with other North Atlantic water masses are converted into the densest waters [similar density to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)] in the North Atlantic. We describe the diminished role of salinity in the Labrador Sea, where a shortage of buoyant surface water (or excess of high salinity water) leads to overly strong convection. The result is that the Atlantic overturning circulation in the model is very sensitive to the surface heat flux in the Labrador Sea and hence is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. As strong subpolar convection is found in other models, we discuss broader implications.  相似文献   

Fluctuations in US Freezing Rain Days   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David Changnon  Russell Bigley 《Climatic change》2005,69(2-3):229-244

Freezing rain occurrences during a 50-year period, 1949/1950–1998/1999, derived from carefully examined records of 161 first-order stations distributed across the United States, were assessed for temporal fluctuations and trends. Classification of station fluctuations based on five 10-year periods revealed five unique distribution types in areas east of the Rockies. One of these five distributions, for stations located in the western Great Plains, experienced its greatest 10-year value at the end of the 50-year period. The other four regional distributions experienced their highest 10-year value in either of the first two 10-year periods. Nationally, the 10-year period when the greatest number of stations experienced their maximum value was 1949/1950–1958/1959, while the period when the greatest number of stations experienced their minimum value fell near the end of the 50-year record (1979/1980–1988/1989). The 50-year linear trends defined one region, the western Great Plains, with increasing values, while three areas of decreasing trend were identified; the Great Lakes, the eastern Ohio River valley, and southern New England. These analyses also indicate the need to examine and consider such time–space changes in the frequency of climate variables at various spatial scales when assessing weather risks and developing climate change scenarios.  相似文献   

A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century: seasonal means and interannual variability     

David P. Rowell 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(7-8):837-849

A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century is described, using a high-resolution state-of-the-art model. A time-slice approach is used, whereby the atmospheric general circulation model, HadAM3P, was integrated for two periods, 1960–1990 and 2070–2100, using the SRES A2 scenario. For the first time an ensemble of such experiments was produced, along with appropriate statistical tests for assessing significance. The focus is on changes to the statistics of seasonal means, and includes analysis of both multi-year means and interannual variance. All four seasons are assessed, and anomalies are mapped for surface air temperature, precipitation and snow mass. Mechanisms are proposed where these are dominated by straightforward local processes. In winter, the largest warming occurs over eastern Europe, up to 7°C, mean snow mass is reduced by at least 80% except over Scandinavia, and precipitation increases over all but the southernmost parts of Europe. In summer, temperatures rise by 6–9°C south of about 50°N, and mean rainfall is substantially reduced over the same area. In spring and autumn, anomalies tend to be weaker, but often display patterns similar to the preceding season, reflecting the inertia of the land surface component of the climate system. Changes in interannual variance are substantial in the solsticial seasons for many regions (note that for precipitation, variance estimates are scaled by the square of the mean). In winter, interannual variability of near-surface air temperature is considerably reduced over much of Europe, and the relative variability of precipitation is reduced north of about 50°N. In summer, the (relative) interannual variance of both variables increases over much of the continent.  相似文献   

Inverted-polarity electrical structures in thunderstorms in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS)     

W. David Rust  Donald R. MacGorman  Eric C. Bruning  Stephanie A. Weiss  Paul R. Krehbiel  Ronald J. Thomas  William Rison  Timothy Hamlin  Jeremiah Harlin 《Atmospheric Research》2005,76(1-4):247

Balloon-borne electric field soundings and lightning mapping data have been analyzed for three of the storms that occurred in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study field program in 2000 to determine if the storms had inverted-polarity electrical structures. The polarities of all or some of the vertically stacked charge regions in such storms are opposite to the polarities observed at comparable heights in normal storms. Analyses compared the charge structures inferred from electric field soundings in the storms with charges inferred from three-dimensional lightning mapping data. Charge structures were inferred from electric field profiles by combining the one-dimensional approximation of Gauss's law with additional information from three-dimensional patterns in the electric field vectors. The three different ways of inferring the charge structure in the storms were found to complement each other and to be consistent overall. Charge deposition by lightning possibly occurred and increased the charge complexity of one of the storms.Many of the cloud flashes in each case were inverted-polarity flashes. Two storms produced ground flash activity comprised predominantly of positive ground flashes. One storm, which was an isolated thunderstorm, produced inverted-polarity cloud flashes, but no flashes to ground. The positive and negative thunderstorm charge regions were found at altitudes where, respectively, negative and positive charge would be found in normal-polarity storms. Thus, we conclude that these storms had anomalous and inverted-polarity electrical structures. Collectively, these three cases (along with the limited cases in the refereed literature) provide additional evidence that thunderstorms can have inverted-polarity electrical structures.  相似文献