基于数据挖掘CART算法的区域夏季降水日数分类与预测模型研究     

史逸民  史达伟  郝玲  张银意  王鹏 《南京气象学院学报》2018,10(6):760-765

夏季降水日数的准确预测,对于保障农业、运输业、电力等行业的有序进行具有重要现实意义.利用连云港市气象局提供的1951—2012年夏季降水数据对连云港地区的降水日数特征进行分析,难以直观地发现夏季降水日数随时间分布的规律.为进一步探索降水日数的发生规律,结合国家气候中心网站提供的多种气候因子数据,基于CART决策树算法构建了连云港地区夏季降水日数是否偏多与是否偏少的分类与预测模型.该模型可以发现在多种气候因子不同条件下,夏季降水日数是否偏多（偏少）的规律,模型的分类与预测都具有良好的效果.利用52 a的数据样本训练模型,模型的训练准确率为90.38%（86.54%）,再用剩余10 a数据样本检验模型,测试准确率为80%（80%）,并且得到规则集,方便气象业务人员使用以及决策服务人员参考.同时,为降水日数的预测提供了数据挖掘的新思路.  相似文献   

较低温度(580～700℃)合成的高Tc(Tl-Ba-Ca-Cu-O)系超导体     

孟大维  王永在  沈今川  吴秀玲  周惟公 《地球科学》1990,(4)

按照名义组分1113和1112以较低的烧结温度(580～700℃)获得了一系列高Tc Tl-Ba-Ca-Cu-O系超导体,其最佳样品的零电阻温度为112K。电子衍射分析表明,样品中含有两相,主相属四方晶系,晶胞参数为a=b=0.547nm.c=2.931nm.α=β=Υ=90°,空间群为I4/mmm次相属正交晶系,晶胞参数为a=0.335nm,b=0.989nm.c=1.654nm,.α=β=Υ=90°,空间群为Pmmm。  相似文献   

龙门山南段青衣江阶地沉积物的化学风化特征及其意义          下载免费PDF全文

姜大伟  张世民  丁锐  李伟  刘汉永  郭萌 《地质科学》2016,(3):763-778

本文通过对龙门山南段青衣江阶地的研究, 尝试以常量元素所体现的风化特征, 来解决阶地对比的问题, 并取得了一定的进展。通过主量元素的分析, 发现CIA指标、 A-CN-K三角模型等, 在区分不同年龄的阶地有很好的效果, 而且沉积物砾石之间的基质颜色也一定程度地反映了新老关系。结合流域内更古老洪积扇的研究, 发现河流阶地在距今200ka内化学风化速度较稳定, 但更老的地貌面风化呈现非线性。另外, 在本文研究的600ka时间尺度内, 阶地风化速度与全球气候变化相关, 体现为冰期风化速度慢, 间冰期风化速度快, 并具一定的滞后效应。  相似文献   

西北太平洋热带云团发展与两类El Nio事件的联系          下载免费PDF全文

耿焕同  黄超  张伟  史达伟 《大气科学学报》2016,39(2):189-197

利用1982—2009年全球热带云团数据集、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和英国Hadley中心海温资料,并引入热带云团生成率(Genesis Productivity,GP)来分析EP(Eastern Pacific)El Nio和CP(Central Pacific)El Nio事件与西北太平洋热带云团发展的相关性。研究表明,1)夏秋两季GP与Nio3指数在东南区(SE)均为显著正相关,在西南区(SW)仅秋季呈显著正相关;GP与EMI(El Nio Modoki Index)指数在夏季SE区域为显著正相关,在秋季南中国海(South China Sea,SCS)区呈负相关。2)在EP El Nio年,夏季SE区域的GP增大与低层涡度、高层散度以及低层相对湿度的相对增大一致。夏季SW区域与秋季SE区域的GP增大与有利的高低空配置相关,La Nia年则与之相反。3)在CP El Nio年,夏季SE区域的GP增大伴随着低层涡度和高层散度的增加,同时与充足的水汽及弱风切变相吻合;而秋季SCS区域的GP下降源于正涡度带、正散度带以及水汽带的东移。  相似文献   

Petroleum accumulation conditions of the Paleogene Shahejie formation in Qingdong Sag of Bohai Bay Basin,Eastern China     

Dawei Lv  Mingzhen Zhang  Huiyong Wang  Guangzeng Song  Ziqun Zhou  Yanru Meng  Penglin Yong  Qing Yang 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(3):228

Qingdong Sag is a potential area for oil and gas exploration in Bohai Bay Basin of Northern China. In order to find a direction for the subsequent exploration of Jiyang Depression, oil and gas accumulation conditions of Qingdong Sag are studied in details by using geochemistry, sequence stratigraphy, sedimentology, and petroleum geology methods, integrated with geological, seismic, and testing data. The results show that the Shahejie Formation in the Qingdong Sag was mainly deposited in deltaic and lacustrine settings. The upper part of member 4 of the Shahejie Formation formed in delta, beach bar, low stand fan, and submarine fan. Three tectonic settings (extensional, strike-slip, and extension and strike-slip compound) were recognized. Accumulation of oil and gas in Qingdong Sag is influenced by structures and reservoir and cap rock conditions. Six oil and gas accumulation systems were found, which are north fault terrace-north subdepression oil and gas accumulation system, west slope belt and gas accumulation system, middle Horst oil and gas accumulation system, south Horst oil and gas accumulation system, drape structural belt of Qingdong 2 well oil and gas accumulation system, and Qingnan area oil and gas accumulation system. Members 3 and 4 of the Shahejie Formation are the main target of hydrocarbon source rocks because the organic matter abundance is up to the standard of good hydrocarbon source rocks. The north of the Qingdong Sag and second slope-break belt should be the key objectives of exploration in the future.  相似文献   

Hydrogen Incorporation in Crystalline Jadeite: Insight from First Principles Calculations     

ZHANG Xiaoling  FAN Xiaoyu  MENG Dawei  WU Xiuling  LIU Weiping 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(3):939-945

Hydrogen incorporation is critical for explaining defect energies, structure parameters and other physical characteristics of minerals and understanding mantle dynamics. This work analyzed the hydrogen complex defects in jadeite by the plane-wave pseudo-potential method based on density functional theory, and optimized the atomic positions and lattice constants in all configurations(different defective systems). Incorporation mechanisms considered for hydrogen(H) in jadeite include:(1) hydrogen incorporating with the O2 site oxygen and coexisting with M2 vacancy;(2) one H atom combined with an Al atom replacing Si in tetrahedron;(3) 4H atoms directly replacing Si in tetrahedron and(4) 3H atoms replacing Al on the M1 site. The four incorporation mechanisms mentioned above form the corresponding V_(Na)-H_i, Al_(Si)-H_i, V_(Si)-4H_i and V_(Al)-3H_i point defects. The molecular dynamics simulation to the ideal, V_(Na)-H_i, Al_(Si)-H_i, V_(Si)-4H_i and V_(Al)-3H_i point defects under the P-T conditions of 900 K, 2 GPa, the V_(Na)-H_i and Al_(Si)-H_i point defects under different pressures at T = 900 K, and Al_(Si)-H_i point defects under different temperatures at P = 3 GPa was performed to examine the preferential mode of hydrogen incorporation in jadeite by means of first-principles calculations. The calculations show that the averaged O–H bond-length in the hydrogen point defects system decreased in the order of Al_(Si)-H_i, V_(Na)-H_i, V_(Si)-4H_i and V_(Al)-3H_i. V_(Na)-H_i complex defects result in a contraction of the jadeite volume and the presence of Al_(Si)-H_i, V_(Si)-4H_i and V_(Al)-3H_i defects could increase the supercell volume, which is the most obvious in the V_(Al)-3H_i defects. The energy of formation of Al_(Si)-H_i and V_(Al)-3H_i complex defects was much lower than that of other defect systems. The V_(Al)-3H_i defects system has the lowest energy and the shortest O–H bond-length, suggesting that this system is the most favorable. The analytical results of vacancy formation energy, O–H bondlength, and the stability of the hydrogen defects in jadeite have suggested that the preferred hydration incorporation mode in jadeite is V_(Al)-3H_i complex defect.  相似文献   

2006-2015年上海嘉定区气温和降水非均匀分布特征分析     

吉辰  闵锦忠  耿焕同  张录军  史达伟 《气象科学》2017,37(1):110-119

利用上海嘉定区2006-2015年9个自动气象观测站的逐小时观测资料,通过对气温和降水日变化差异、年变化特征、空间分布状况的分析,研究了该地区气温和降水时空非均匀性分布特征。研究结果表明：嘉定区气温和降水日变化存在局地差异和季节差异,日最高气温出现时间在四季中最为集中,而日最低气温出现时间则比较分散;年平均气温呈走低趋势,而年降水量从整体上来说却呈增加趋势;上海嘉定区东南角为气温高值区且降水量相对偏大,中部地区为降水量高值区且气温也相对偏高,而北部降水量偏少且气温偏低,表明嘉定区东南部和中部相对暖湿,而北部偏干冷;气温和降水的标准差空间分布差异大,表明上海嘉定区气温和降水的空间非均匀性特征显著。通过嘉定气温和降水的时空演变规律的揭示,有助于更好地认识小尺度局部区域气候特征,也能为准确认识该地区的极端事件、精细化天气预报及区域气象灾害风险评估提供更加科学的气候变化背景。  相似文献   

微齿喜马拉雅低额溞生长及种群增长的研究     

施心路  于丽杰  张大维  史新柏 《海洋与湖沼》1997,28(3):262-270

于1990年6月在哈尔滨市东北林业大学实验林场一水池中采到微齿喜马拉雅低额溞，根据实验结果应用生物统计学方法对它的生长和种群增长进行研究。结果表明，在不同温度条件下性成熟时间与水温的关系为，雌性（10-30°C）：h=8072t^-1.313（r=0.985, P＜0.01）；雄性（5-25°C）：h=1074t^-0.855（r=0.9844，P＜0.01）。在20±1°C条件下，其体长增长模型为：l_t=3.334-2.7345e^-0.1117t。龄期（x）与年龄（t，d）的关系为：雌体：t=0.07169x²＋1.3808x-1.7361；雄体：t=0.8425x²＋2.534x-1.8600。内禀增长率（r_m）为0.4076。种群增长呈“logistic”型，其方程式为：y=3625/[1+e^{(3.848-0.164t)}]。  相似文献   

Assessment of rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling: A case study in the Brue catchment,UK          下载免费PDF全文

Jun Zhang  Dawei Han 《水文研究》2017,31(16):2972-2981

This study explores rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling. A novel assessment scheme integrated with coefficient of variance and Moran's I is introduced to describe effective rainfall spatial variability. Coefficient of variance is widely accepted to identify rainfall variability through rainfall intensity, whereas Moran's I reflects rainfall spatial autocorrelation. This new assessment framework combines these two indicators to assess the spatial variability derived from both rainfall intensity and distribution, which are crucial in determining the time and magnitude of runoff generation. Four model structures embedded in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model are adopted for hydrological modelling in the Brue catchment of England. The models are assigned with 1, 3, 8, and 27 hydrological response units, respectively, and diverse rainfall spatial information for 236 events are extracted from 1995. This study investigates the model performance of different partitioning based on rainfall spatial variability through peak volume (Q_p) and time to peak (T_p), along with the rainfall event process. The results show that models associated with dense spatial partitioning are broadly capable of capturing more spatial information with better performance. It is unnecessary to utilize models with high spatial density for simple rainfall events, though they show distinct advantages on complex events. With additional spatial information, Q_p experiences a notable improvement over T_p. Moreover, seasonal patterns signified by the assessment scheme imply the feasibility of seasonal models.  相似文献   

基于唐宋文人足迹集聚性分析的中心文化城市变迁     

应申  侯景洋  周钰笛  窦小影  王兆鹏  邵大为 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(5):945-953

中国历史文化研究一直是中国文学研究的热点,大量的研究都是基于文学作品本身或文人个体特征进行,缺乏大数据的支持;历史的发展是大量个体共同驱动的结果,文化地理中众多文人的行为潜在影响着古代文化分布和变迁。本文提出基于文人群体运动行为的位置关联和聚合的大数据分析方法,根据唐宋时期文人的移动足迹数据来论证中国历史上的文化中心城市的变迁。文化地理领域中的3次文化中心转移的观点,是基于3次历史事件驱动的定性推理分析,缺乏有效的古代文化方面的数据支撑。本文力图从数据科学、信息科学和GIS分析角度来审视这一结论。从人文领域已经出版的学术研究著作中采集唐宋时期具有代表性作家的11万条足迹数据,利用GIS的位置关联技术形成足迹图,构建了文人迁徙网络图;并采用空间化的PageRank算法计算出唐宋时期各城市的文化吸引力,直观地呈现出了不同时期文人聚集的中心城市,重塑唐宋文化中心变迁。同时,从定量、地理位置变化和时序角度剖析了中国不同时期城市的文化吸引力的分布和变化。为论证中国文化中心的南北变迁,对唐宋时期的城市文化吸引力聚合,以20年间隔来科学计算出南北文化中心的对比和演变,科学表现文化中心的南北随时间的变化,论证了中国文化中心3次南移的后2次,发现中国文化中心南移的时间早在北宋时期就已完成。  相似文献