早稻产量综合动态预报方法研究     

易雪  王建林  宋迎波   《气象与环境科学》2009,32(4):8-12

利用湖南省早稻产量与发育期、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水量和日日照时数等资料及早稻生理气象指标,在丰歉气象影响指数动态预报方法的基础上,引进早稻生育期内对产量有较大影响的关键气象因子,建立了早稻产量综合动态预报方法.结果表明,该方法在早稻产量增减趋势预报和定量预报上,正(准)确率都有所提高.  相似文献   

河南省紫外线辐射分布规律及影响因素研究     

田宏伟  师丽魁  邓伟  陈海波  杜子璇  申占营   《气象与环境科学》2009,32(4):25-28

利用2005年以来的河南省18个地市级气象台站的紫外线辐射监测数据,分析了河南省紫外线辐射的时空分布特征,并定量分析了云量、能见度及相对湿度等因素对紫外线辐射的影响.结果表明:河南省紫外线辐射年平均值总体表现为中部和南部较高;冬季西北地区紫外线辐射较高,夏季在西部、豫东南到豫北西部有两个高值带;季紫外线辐射均值表现为春夏季高、秋冬季低的特点.紫外线辐射强度与总云量、低云量及相对湿度呈显著负相关,而与能见度呈显著正相关.  相似文献   

草温、0cm地温、气温间变化规律分析   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

邓天宏  王国安  焦建丽  余辉   《气象与环境科学》2009,32(4):47-50

利用2008年信阳、郑州、南阳、商丘4个国家基本(准)站草温、0 cm地温和气温资料,分析了不同季节(冬、夏)、不同天气条件下草温、0 cm地温、气温的变化关系,结果表明:冬季无积雪和夏季的晴天,草温变化的振幅最大,位相靠前,0 cm地温居中,气温变幅最小;冬季有积雪时,0 cm地温在0 ℃左右变动,草温和气温表现出一定的变化幅度.从全年月平均值变化来看,0 cm地温>草温>气温;逐月极端最高值,0 cm地温>草温>气温;逐月极端最低值,草温＜0 cm地温＜气温.用草温比用0 cm地温和气温能更好地判定霜的出现.  相似文献   

最高最低气温突升突降概念模型预报工具初探   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘国忠  唐毓勇  班荣贵  卢小丹  邓汝伊  黄飞  杨宇红 《气象研究与应用》2009,30(4):22-24,I0004

通过数理统计和气候分析的方法,得出百色单站24h最高最低气温突升突降的分布特征,进行区间划分和分型.利用概念模型预报方法进行研究,得出最高最低气温突升突降的概念模型预报工具.  相似文献   

桂林市低温冰冻过程特征分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

唐熠 《气象研究与应用》2009,30(2):16-20,110

利用常规资料,欧洲资料分析了桂林冰冻日和冰冻过程的时空分布和长(≥6d)冰冻过程、短(＜6d)冰冻过程在51a平均场和距平场上的特征.  相似文献   

低纬地区平流层准零风层时空分布特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈柏青  刘毅  刘靓珂  沈新勇  张玉李 《气候与环境研究》2018,23(6):657-669

利用ERA-Interim逐日再分析资料,使用EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）等统计方法,分析了中国低纬地区平流层准零风层（Quasi-Zero Wind Layer,QZWL）的时空分布特征,旨在为平流层飞艇寻找合适的运行区域及时段。低纬地区QZWL主要受到热带平流层大气环流季节性变化和平流层准两年振荡（Quasi-BiennialOscillation,QBO）的影响。在二者共同作用下,低纬地区QZWL高概率带可分为南北两支:“北支”出现在10月至次年4月间,QBO东风位相时期,“北支”中心纬度基本维持在20°N附近,西风位相时期,“北支”中心纬度随高度降低南移明显;“南支”仅出现在QBO西风位相期间,5~11月在5°N附近,其余时段与“北支”合并,可以认为是“北支”向南延伸。通过对比海口站和南沙站Weibull概率密度函数与风速资料的拟合结果,表明Weibull分布可以很好拟合不同QBO位相下平流层逐月风速频率分布,根据Weibull分布计算特定的累积概率风速值,可以作为选取适宜平流层飞艇运行的低风速风场的判据。海口站30~50 hPa高度11月至次年4月、南沙站50~70 hPa高度QBO西风位相时期全年均较为适合平流层飞艇运行。  相似文献   

Impacts of Future NOx and CO Emissions on Regional Chemistry and Climate over Eastern China     

WANG Geli  YANG Peicai  LIU Chuanxi  LIU Yi  LU Daren 《大气科学进展》2010,27(4):750-760

A coupled chemical/dynamical model (SOCOL-SOlar Climate Ozone Links) is applied to study the impacts of future enhanced CO and NOx emissions over eastern China on regional chemistry and climate. The result shows that the increase of CO and NOx emissions has significant effects on regional chemistry, including NOx, CO, O₃, and OH concentrations. During winter, the CO concentration is uniformly increased in the northern hemisphere by about 10 ppbv. During summer, the increase of CO has a regional distribution. The change in O₃, concentrations near eastern China has both strong seasonal and spatial variations. During winter, the surface O₃, concentrations decrease by about 2 ppbv, while during summer they increase by about 2 ppbv in eastern China. The changes of CO, NOx, and O₃, induce important impacts on OH concentrations. The changes in chemistry, especially O₃, induce important effects on regional climate. The analysis suggests that during winter, the surface temperature decreases and air pressure increases in central-eastern China. The changes of temperature and pressure produce decreases in vertical velocity. We should mention that the model resolution is coarse, and the calculated concentrations are generally underestimated when they are compared to measured results. However, because this model is a coupled dynamical/chemical model, it can provide some useful insights regarding the climate impacts due to changes in air pollutant emissions.  相似文献   

近36年湖南省干湿的空间分布特征及变化趋势   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张剑明  ;章新平;黎祖贤;张健;肖艳;刘燚;周伟 《热带气象学报》2010,26(2):235-241

利用湖南省80个测站1970—2005年降水和蒸发资料,采用REOF、小波分析和M-K突变分析等方法,对湖南省干湿的空间分布特征和变化趋势进行分析。研究表明:湖南省干湿存在4个干旱区域和3个湿润区域,除湘南、湘西和湘东部分地区外,其余地区有变湿趋势。根据EOF和REOF分析,湖南省干湿空间分布既有全区一致性,也存在南部和北部及湘中与周围地区相反变化的差异,大致可以分为湘南湘西南、湘北、湘中、湘东北4个异常区,且各异常区于1980年代末—1990年代初有一个由干向湿的转变过程。除湘中区外其他各区域1970年代中期以前和1990年代之后处于湿润时期,1980年代处于干旱时期。湘北区和湘中区存在2.6、5.3和11.6年的周期干湿变化;湘南、湘西南区和湘东北区存在2.6、7和16年的干湿变化。  相似文献   

The Effects of Line-Wing Cutoff in LBL Integration on Radiation Calculations          下载免费PDF全文

ZHANG Hu  SHI Guangyu  LIU Yi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2008,22(2):248-255

There are three basic methods in radiative transfer calculations, i.e., line-by-line (LBL) integration, correlated k-distribution method, and band model. The LBL integration is the most accurate of all, in which, there are two quadrature algorithms named in this paper as integration by lines and by sampling "points when calculating atmospheric transmittance in the considered wavenumber region. Because the LBL integration is the most expensive of all, it is necessary and important to save calculation time but increase calculation speed when it is put into use in the daily operation in atmospheric remote sensing and atmospheric sounding. A simplified LBL method is given in this paper on the basis of integration by lines, which increases computational speed greatly with keeping the same accuracy. Then, we discuss the effects of different cutoff schemes on atmospheric absorption coefficient, transmittance, and cooling rate under both of accurate and simplified LBL methods in detail. There are four cutoff schemes described in this paper, i.e., CUTOFFs 1, 2, 3, and 4. It is shown by this numerical study that the way to cut off spectral line-wing has a great effect on the accuracy and speed of radiative calculations. The relative errors of the calculated absorption coefficients for CUTOFF 2 are the largest under different pressures, while for CUTOFF 1, they are less than 2% at most of sampling points and for CUTOFFs 3 or 4, they are ahnost less than 5% in the calculated spectral region, however, the calculation time is reduced greatly. We find in this study that the transmittance in the lower atmosphere is not sensitive to different LBL methods and different cutoff schemes. Whereas for the higher atmosphere, the differences of transmittance results between CUTOFF 2 and each of other three cutoff schemes are the biggest of all no matter for the accurate LBL or for the simplified LBL integrations. By comparison, the best and optimized cutoff scheme is given in this paper finally.  相似文献   

利用正弦分段法模拟气温日变化   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

姜会飞  温德永  李楠  丁谊  肖静 《气象与减灾研究》2010,33(3):61-65

提出了一种运用正弦分段模拟法模拟气温日变化的新方法,并以山东省德州、菏泽、泰安、烟台、潍坊和青岛6个地面气象站2009年春、夏、秋、冬不同时段内一个月的自动观测逐时气温,与运用正弦分段模拟法模拟的逐时气温进行比较分析。结果表明,模拟气温与观测气温之间呈显著相关;该方法可以实现传统观测气温与自动观测气温的衔接以及满足作物模型对气温输入时间步长的精度要求;无论从空间或时间上,模拟气温与观测气温偏差及其变幅基本能满足应用需要。  相似文献