Environmental change in grasslands: Assessment using models   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

William J. Parton  Dennis S. Ojima  David S. Schimel 《Climatic change》1994,28(1-2):111-141

Modeling studies and observed data suggest that plant production, species distribution, disturbance regimes, grassland biome boundaries and secondary production (i.e., animal productivity) could be affected by potential changes in climate and by changes in land use practices. There are many studies in which computer models have been used to assess the impact of climate changes on grassland ecosystems. A global assessment of climate change impacts suggest that some grassland ecosystems will have higher plant production (humid temperate grasslands) while the production of extreme continental steppes (e.g., more arid regions of the temperate grasslands of North America and Eurasia) could be reduced substantially. All of the grassland systems studied are projected to lose soil carbon, with the greatest losses in the extreme continental grassland systems. There are large differences in the projected changes in plant production for some regions, while alterations in soil C are relatively similar over a range of climate change projections drawn from various General Circulation Models (GCM's). The potential impact of climatic change on cattle weight gains is unclear. The results of modeling studies also suggest that the direct impact of increased atmospheric CO₂ on photosynthesis and water use in grasslands must be considered since these direct impacts could be as large as those due to climatic changes. In addition to its direct effects on photosynthesis and water use, elevated CO₂ concentrations lower N content and reduce digestibility of the forage.  相似文献   

Evaluation and comparison of spatial interpolators II   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Dennis D. Weber  Evan J. Englund 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(5):589-603

The performance of several variations on ordinary kriging and inverse distance estimators is evaluated. Mean squared errors (MSE) were calculated for estimates made on multiple resamplings from five exhaustive data bases representing two distinctly different types of estimation problem. Ordinary kriging, when performed with variograms estimated from the sample data, was more robust than inverse-distance methods to the type of estimation problem, and to the choice of estimation parameters such as number of neighbors.Notice: Although the research described in this article has been funded in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through Cooperative Agreement CR818526 to the Harry Reid Center for Environmental Studies, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, it has not been subjected to Agency review. Therefore it does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.  相似文献   

Geochemical constraints on magma processes in a peralkaline system: The Paisano volcano,west Texas     

William F. McDonough  Dennis O. Nelson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1984,48(12):2443-2455

Major and trace element data for a sequence of peralkaline silicic lavas and pyroclastic flows, exposed in the caldera wall of the Paisano volcano, west Texas, document systematic fractional crystallization during magmatic evolution and an open system, magma mixing event in the upper parts of the sequence. Stratigraphically lowest flows are comendite and comenditic quartz trachyte lavas and ash flow tufts. Overlying these units is a trachyte with compositional, textural and mineralogical features indicating that it is the product of magma-mixing; similar flows occur in other parts of the volcano at the same stratigraphic level. This composite trachyte is considered to be a mixture of mugearitic or mafic trachytic magma, derived from a similar source region which yielded the earlier caldera wall flows. Trace element concentrations of the post-trachyte comenditic quartz trachyte lavas suggest they were erupted from a chamber whose magma was diluted by an influx of mugearitic or mafic trachytic magma during a magma mixing event.Rayleigh fractionation calculations show that the comendites and comenditic quartz trachytes can be derived from a parental mugearite magma by 88% to 93% fractionation of dominantly plagioclase and alkali feldspar, with lesser amounts of clinopyroxene, magnetite and apatite. Zircon was not a significant fractionating phase. The composition, mineralogy and depth of the source region(s) which generated these magmas cannot be constrained from the present data set.  相似文献   

Forecasting errors: The importance of the decision-making context     

Robin L. Dennis 《Climatic change》1987,11(1-2):81-96

This article demonstrates the importance of context on forecast errors. It de J.scribes the development of an unrealistic transportation planning forecast for Denver, Colorado, noting its influence on air quality planning for Denver. The importance of two contextual features, procedural rationality and conflict of interest, to the introduction of error is discussed. The case described implies that different decision-making contexts define different rules of rationality, and substantive rationality may not fit the rules. The type of context and not necessarily a code of ethics will determine this.  相似文献   

Intra-field variability of scalar flux densities across a transition between a desert and an irrigated potato field     

Dennis D. Baldocchi  K. Shankar Rao 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1995,76(1-2):109-136

This paper reports on measurements of sensible and latent heat and CO₂ fluxes made over an irrigated potato field, growing next to a patch of desert. The study was conducted using two eddy correlation systems. One measurement system was located within the equilibrium boundary layer 800 m downwind from the edge of the potato field. The other measurement system was mobile and was placed at various downwind positions to probe the horizontal transition of vertical scalar fluxes. Latent (LE) and sensible (H) heat fluxes, measured at 4 m above the surface, exhibited marked variations with downwind distance over the field. Only after the fetch to height ratio exceeded 75 to 1 didLE andH become invariant with downwind distance. When latent and sensible heat fluxes were measured upwind of this threshold, significant advection of humidity-deficit occurred, causing a vertical flux divergence ofH andLE.The measured fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture were compared with predictions from a second-order closure two-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer model. There is good agreement between measurements and model predictions. A soil-plant-atmosphere model was used to examine nonlinear feedbacks between humidity-deficits, stomatal conductance and evaporation. Data interpretation with this model revealed that the advection of hot dry air did not enhance surface evaporation rates near the upwind edge of the potato field, because of negative feedbacks among stomatal conductance, humidity-deficits, andLE. This finding is consistent with results from several recent studies.  相似文献   

Some Biases in Sampling Multilevel Piezometers for Volatile Organics     

J. F. Barker  G. C Patrick  L. Lemon  G. M. Travis 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1987,7(2):48-54

Multilevel piezometers are cost-effective monitoring devices for determining the three-dimensional distribution of solutes in ground water. Construction includes flexible tubing (plastic or Teflon®). Their sampling is subject to a number of'potential biases, particularly: (1) losses of volatile organic solutes via volatilization, (2) sorption onto the flexible tubing of the piezometers, (3) leaching of organics from this tubing, and (4) collection of unrepresentative samples due to inadequate piezometer flushing. It is shown that these biases are minimal or are easily controlled in most situations.
Another source of bias has been recognized. Organic solutes present in ground water above the screened level can penetrate the flexible plastic or Teflon tubing and contaminate the sampled water being drawn through this tubing. Laboratory tests and field results indicate this transmission causes low organic contaminant concentrations to be erroneously attributed to ground water which is free of such contaminants. The transmitted organics apparently desorb from the plastic tubing during flushing of even 40 piezometer volumes.
Recognition of this transmission problem provides for a better interpretation of existing organic contaminant distribution data. Caution is advised when considering the use of these monitoring devices in organic solute contaminant studies.  相似文献   

Short polarity intervals within the Matuyama: transitional field records from hydraulic piston cored sediments from the North Atlantic     

Brad M. Clement  Dennis V. Kent 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1987,81(2-3)

Detailed sampling of two short magnetozones within the Matuyama Chronozone recorded at DSDP Site 609 (49.86°N, 335.77°E) confirms that one, the Cobb Mountain Subchronozone (1.12 Ma), is a very short, full normal polarity interval and that the other, the older interval, is a record of a geomagnetic excursion which occurred at approximately 1.55 Ma. The Cobb Mountain Subchron lasted approximately 25,000 years, one third the duration of the Jaramillo Subchron. The normal polarity interval is bounded by two transition zones which document an antisymmetry in the sequence of directions in the reverse to normal and normal to reverse polarity transitions. We interpret the antisymmetry as reflecting a dependence upon the sense of the reversal, without significant changes in the relative contributions of non-dipole terms. The polarity interval recorded at 1.55 Ma lasted only 8,800 years with what may be regarded as full polarity directions observed across only 3 cm of stratigraphic section. This feature is interpreted as an excursion of the geomagnetic field and appears to be correlative with the Gilsa Subchron. Similarities between the transition bounding these two magnetozones suggest that these features occur as the result of the same process or triggering mechanisms in the earth's outer core.  相似文献   

Rhyolites contaminated with metapelite and gabbro,Lipari, Aeolian Islands,Italy: products of lower crustal fusion or of assimilation plus fractional crystallization?     

Daniel S. Barker 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1987,97(4):460-472

Pleistocene lavas from Monte S. Angelo and Chiesa Vecchia volcanoes on Lipari contain two suites of inclusions. A metapelitic suite consists of gneisses and granulites with combinations of cordierite, garnet, corundum, hercynite, andalusite, sillimanite, orthopyroxene, ilmenite, magnetite, biotite, plagioclase, and quartz. A gabbroic suite has cumulus texture and contains plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and magnetite. All megacryst phases in the lavas appear to be derived from rock fragments, with the exception of euhedral strongly zoned calcic plagioclase, and none has grown by homogeneous nucleation from liquid represented by the groundmass, which is peraluminous rhyolite (>70 wt% SiO₂, >6 wt% K₂O). Ground-mass microcrysts were nearly all derived from disaggregated metapelites; overgrowths of alkali feldspar on plagioclase and of orthopyroxene on clinopyroxene, and quartz intergrown with alkali feldspar, are the only phases that grew from the rhyolitic liquid. Euhedral cordierite, hercynite, and plagioclase at the margins of some rock fragments grew by reaction of metapelite with liquid.For grains in contact within metapelite inclusions, geothermometers and geobarometers yield estimates of equilibration conditions in the range of 800±100° C and 5±1 kbar. Compositions of phases in the same thin section, but not in the same inclusion, yield broadly erratic P and T estimates indicating disequilibrium among metapelite inclusions. Pyroxene thermometry in the gabbro suite indicates a crystallization temperature of 1020±50° C and a lack of subsequent thermal equilibration with the rhyolitic liquid.The metapelite suite may partly be restite, but much is xenolithic, derived from a vertical interval of perhaps several kilometers, and may have undergone a much earlier episode of melting. The gabbro fragments are accidental xenoliths incorporated as the magma rose. Contaminants (metapelite and gabbro) account for 50 vol.% of the lavas, and cause them to be classified as high-K andesite according to whole-rock major element analysis.The rhyolitic liquid may have originated by partial fusion of metapelites in the lower crust, or by fractional crystallization of mafic mantle-derived magma combined with assimilation of metapelite; the bulk of the evidence favors assimilation-fractional crystallization. Miocene and younger metapelite-contaminated rhyolites also occur in Tuscany, SE Spain, E Morocco, and NW Tunisia, and are associated in each region with mafic silica-undersaturated lavas, implying crustal underplating around the western Mediterranean before, during, and after formation of the Tyrrhenian basin.  相似文献   

Cyclic Storage: A Preliminary Assessment     

Dennis P. Lettenmaier  Stephen J. Burges 《Ground water》1982,20(3):278-288

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A HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION OF HAZARDOUS WASTE INJECTION IN THE MT. SIMON, OHIO     

Dennis J. Nealon 《Ground water》1982,20(3):348-349

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