2011年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

司东  李修仓  任福民  徐良炎  袁媛  龚志强 《气象》2012,38(4):480-489

2011年,全球气温偏高,为有观测记录以来的第十个暖年,是近60年来出现拉尼娜事件的年份中全球气温最高的一年。2011年,全球热带气旋活动较常年偏少。4月,一次拉尼娜事件结束,9月又一次拉尼娜事件生成。年初,低温、寒流席卷亚洲大部,暴风雪频繁袭击北美地区。西欧和中国东部出现严重春旱。夏季,非洲东部经历了20世纪80年代以来最严重的干旱,而东南亚、巴基斯坦和中南美洲洪涝灾害严重。全球极端偏暖事件主要出现在欧洲西部和西北部、南亚南部、东亚中西部、北美东南部等地;极端偏冷事件主要出现在东亚、澳大利亚、非洲南部和美国东北部和西部等地。而南美中东部、东南亚及中国东南部、日本、澳大利亚北部、非洲西部等地出现了极端强降水事件。研究发现,2010／2011年拉尼娜事件和台风活动是导致东南亚洪涝出现的重要原因,而巴基斯坦洪涝主要与印度洋正位相偶极型海温分布有关。  相似文献   

S波段多普勒天气雷达非降水气象回波识别   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

李丰  刘黎平  王红艳  江源 《应用气象学报》2012,23(2):147-158

在气象条件为晴空或有云但无降水的情况下,在雷达站附近经常可观测到大面积的非降水气象回波,这些回波对定量估测降水和雷达资料同化效果产生重要影响。为了有效识别这些非降水回波,该文发展了基于模糊逻辑识别和回波分块的非降水气象回波识别算法 (NPMDA)。该文首先利用地面和卫星资料为标准,提出了非降水回波的确定标准,并利用北京SA雷达,对非降水气象回波特性进行了统计分析,得到了隶属函数。在非降水回波识别时首先采用SCIT算法将回波组合成片,然后对整个PPI进行初步的判断。对不能初步判断为降水的PPI,采用模糊逻辑的方法计算成片回波的属性值,依据成片回波的属性值得到片内回波逐点识别时的阈值,从而实现了回波的动态阈值识别。结果表明:对大部分非降水气象回波识别效果较好,对较强降水回波误判较少,弱降水回波有时会出现一定的误判。与NCAR使用的ICADA方法相比,NPMDA方法能明显提高非降水回波的识别率,减少降水回波的误判率。  相似文献   

长治高温气候特征及分析预报     

王正旺  杨艳平  程玉斌  刘颖  宋凯  江渊  薛博 《山西气象》2012,(2):12-15,34

通过对长治市1977年-2004年6月-8月出现≥35℃的高温天气的地理分布特征、时间和强度等统计研究,给出了高温天气的气候背景。从500hPa高空形势分析,归纳出造成高温天气的四种主要环流形势（两槽一脊型、纬向环流型、大陆暖高型、副高控制型）;分析了风、云、降水等气象要素与高温天气的内在联系。通过850hPa高温预报指标站的选取及数值预报产品的统计分析,给出了高温天气的综合性预报模型。  相似文献   

网站在气象服务中应发挥的作用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张晓梅  陈雷  袁梅 《内蒙古气象》2012,(5):62-63

文章就内蒙古气象局现有的气象网站的运行现状进行了分析,同时根据气象网站本身具有的特点阐述了网站如何在气象服务中更好地发挥作用,并对气象网站服务工作的发展前景做了详尽的分析。  相似文献   

MICROPHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN TYPHOON MORAKOT (2009)   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

陈宝君  王元  明杰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(2):162-171

Microphysical characteristics of the raindrop size distribution(RSD)in Typhoon Morakot(2009) have been studied through the PARSIVEL disdrometer measurements at one site in Fujian province,China during the passage of the storm from 7 to 10 August 2009.The time evolution of the RSD reveals different segments of the storm.Significant difference was observed in the microphysical characteristics between the outer rainband and the eyewall;the eyewall precipitation had a broader size distribution(a smaller slope) than the outer rainband and eye region.The outer rainband and the eye region produced stratiform rains while the eyewall precipitation was convective or mixed stratiform-convective.The RSD was typically characterized by a single peak distribution and well represented by the gamma distribution.The relations between the shape(μ)and slope(Λ)of the gamma distribution and between the reflectivity(Z)and rainfall rate(R)have been investigated.Based on the NW-Dm relationships,we suggest that the stratiform rain for the outer rainband and the eye region was formed by the melting of graupel or rimed ice particles,which likely originated from the eyewall clouds.  相似文献   

VALIDATION OF NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED BY A HYBRID WRF/CALMET MODELING SYSTEM OVER A COASTAL ISLAND WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

路屹雄  汤剑平  王元  宋丽莉 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(3):284-296

The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(California Meteorological Model,CALMET) with 100-m horizontal spacing was driven with outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to obtain near-surface winds for the 1-year period from 12 September 2003 to 11 September 2004.Results were compared with wind observations at four sites.Traditional statistical scores,including correlation coefficients,standard deviations(SDs) and mean absolute errors(MAEs),indicate that the wind estimates from the WRF/CALMET modeling system are produced reasonably well.The correlation coefficients are relatively large,ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for the zonal wind component and from 0.75 to 0.85 for the meridional wind component.MAEs for wind speed range from 1.5 to 2.0 m s-1 at 10 meters above ground level(AGL) and from 2.0 to 2.5 m s-1 at 60 m AGL.MAEs for wind direction range from 30 to 40 degrees at both levels.A spectral decomposition of the time series of wind speed shows positive impacts of CALMET in improving the mesoscale winds.Moreover,combining the CALMET model with WRF significantly improves the spatial variability of the simulated wind fields.It can be concluded that the WRF/CALMET modeling system is capable of providing a detailed near-surface wind field,but the physics in the diagnostic CALMET model needs to be further improved.  相似文献   

光合有效辐射和紫外辐射测量标准的性能验证     

杨云  权继梅  丁蕾 《气象科技》2012,40(5):707-712

2010年中国气象局建立了气象行业光合有效辐射和紫外辐射测量标准.标准建成后,标准器的各项技术性能指标必须经过实际测试来验证.通过对光谱辐射计的波长精密度、准确度、杂散光、重复性、稳定性、探头余弦响应等参数的测试验证,以及对整个标准的测量误差来源及不确定度的分析和评定,得以验证紫外辐射测量标准DTMc300双单色仪光谱辐射计满足世界气象组织(WMO)相关规定的技术指标要求.  相似文献   

监控视频中目标车辆速度被动式测量方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

靳慧云  李苑  谢贤能  胡斌 《测绘通报》2012,(8):47-50

对事先没有安置测速装置,事后仅通过监控视频进行处理的目标车辆速度被动式测量的方法进行相关研究。阐述被动式目标车辆速度测量的概念、基本原理;视频画面中点、线、面之间的关系;被动式目标车辆速度测量时方向与标定点的选择;不同监控点之间目标车辆的平均速度测量和同一监控点中目标车辆速度测量的方法等。  相似文献   

Two-step method for the determination of the differential code biases of COMPASS satellites   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5  

Zishen Li  Yunbin Yuan  Hui Li  Jikun Ou  Xingliang Huo 《Journal of Geodesy》2012,86(11):1059-1076

The differential code bias (DCB) in satellites of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) should be precisely corrected when designing certain applications, such as ionospheric remote sensing, precise point positioning, and time transfer. In the case of COMPASS system, the data used for estimating DCB are currently only available from a very limited number of global monitoring stations. However, the current GPS/GLONASS satellite DCB estimation methods generally require a large amount of geographically well-distributed data for modeling the global ionospheric vertical total electron content (TEC) and are not particularly suitable for current COMPASS use. Moreover, some satellites with unstable DCB (i.e., relatively large scatter) may affect other satellite DCB estimates through the zero-mean reference that is currently imposed on all satellites. In order to overcome the inadequacy of data sources and to reduce the impact of unstable DCB, a new approach, designated IGGDCB, is developed for COMPASS satellite DCB determination. IGG stands for the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, which is located in Wuhan, China. In IGGDCB, the ionospheric vertical TEC of each individual station is independently modeled by a generalized triangular series function, and the satellite DCB reference is selected using an iterative DCB elimination process. By comparing GPS satellite DCB estimates calculated by the IGGDCB approach based on only a handful (e.g., seven) of tracking stations against that calculated by the currently existing methods based on hundreds of tracking stations, we are able to demonstrate that the accuracies of the IGGDCB-based DCB estimates perform at the level of about 0.13 and 0.10?ns during periods of high (2001) and low (2009) solar activity, respectively. The iterative method for DCB reference selection is verified by statistical tests that take into account the day-to-day scatter and the duration that the satellites have spent in orbit. The results show that the impact of satellites with unstable DCB can be considerably reduced using the IGGDCB method. It is also confirmed that IGGDCB is not only specifically valid for COMPASS but also for all other GNSS.  相似文献   

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis     

Dongliang Yuan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,96(1-2):3-15

This study is motivated by an interest in obtaining a new automated classification scheme of daily circulation types suitable for use throughout Europe. The classification scheme is performed on 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies (NCEP Reanalysis data, 2.5°×2.5°). Nine grid points represent the study area. Five anticyclonic types (Anw, Ane, A, Asw and Ase) and seven cyclonic types (C, Cnnw, Cwnw, Cwsw, Cssw, Cse, Cne) are defined. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The classification scheme is applied to three different case studies in the Mediterranean Basin: Greece, Cyprus and central Italy. The precipitation percentage of the cyclonic type and the mean seasonal correlation coefficients for all circulation types are the two criteria used to evaluate the performance of the classification scheme. The ability of the HadAM3P general circulation model to reproduce the mean pattern and frequency of circulation types at the 500 hPa level in comparison to the NCEP dataset for the period 1960–1990 is also evaluated. The percentage of rainfall that corresponds to the cyclonic circulation types is greater than 85% for the three study regions. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients for the three classifications are very encouraging, for nearly all days of the study period. Compared to observations, the GCM is able to capture the mean patterns but not able to replicate exactly the observed variability of the circulation types over the three study regions.  相似文献