Framing the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption from a farming-disaster perspective     

Sólveig Thorvaldsdóttir  Ragnar Sigbjörnsson 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(3):1619-1653

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Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal          下载免费PDF全文

Claudia Carvalho‐Santos  João Pedro Nunes  António T. Monteiro  Lars Hein  João Pradinho Honrado 《水文研究》2016,30(5):720-738

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Short‐ and long‐term evapotranspiration rates at ecological restoration sites along a large river receiving rare flow events          下载免费PDF全文

Margaret Shanafield  Hugo Gutiérrez‐Jurado  Jesús Eliana Rodríguez‐Burgueño  Jorge Ramírez‐Hernández  Christopher J. Jarchow  Pamela L. Nagler 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4328-4337

Many large rivers around the world no longer flow to their deltas, due to ever greater water withdrawals and diversions for human needs. However, the importance of riparian ecosystems is drawing increasing recognition, leading to the allocation of environmental flows to restore river processes. Accurate estimates of riparian plant evapotranspiration (ET) are needed to understand how the riverine system responds to these rare events and achieve the goals of environmental flows. In 2014, historic environmental flows were released into the Lower Colorado River at Morelos Dam (Mexico); this once perennial but now dry reach is the final stretch to the mighty Colorado River Delta. One of the primary goals was to supply native vegetation restoration sites along the reach with water to help seedlings establish and boost groundwater levels to foster the planted saplings. Patterns in ET before, during, and after the flows are useful for evaluating whether this goal was met and understanding the role that ET plays in this now ephemeral river system. Here, diurnal fluctuations in groundwater levels and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to compare estimates of ET specifically at 3 native vegetation restoration sites during 2014 planned flow events, and MODIS data were used to evaluate long‐term (2002–2016) ET responses to restoration efforts at these sites. Overall, ET was generally 0–10 mm d^?1 across sites, and although daily ET values from groundwater data were highly variable, weekly averaged estimates were highly correlated with MODIS‐derived estimates at most sites. The influence of the 2014 flow events was not immediately apparent in the results, although the process of clearing vegetation and planting native vegetation at the restoration sites was clearly visible in the results.  相似文献   

OSL signal resetting in young deposits determined with a pulsed photon‐stimulated luminescence (PPSL) unit     

Esperanza Muñoz‐Salinas  Miguel Castillo  José Luis Arce 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2017,46(2):325-337

Optical Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) is a technique that can be used for dating geological materials deposited within the last half‐million years, including sediments transported by air, water or gravity, as well as rocks heated at high temperatures. Recently, several studies have shown that OSL can also provide information on sediment transport. The pulsed photon‐stimulated luminescence (PPSL) unit (also known as a portable OSL reader) developed by the Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre is an instrument designed to read luminescence signals from bulk (untreated) sediment samples comprising poly‐mineral and poly‐grain fractions. In this contribution, we evaluate the potential of the PPSL unit to assess the degree of OSL signal resetting in 27 young deposits (<2 ka) transported by different geomorphic agents in volcanic, coastal and fluvial depositional settings located in Mexico. Our results are in agreement with previous findings that used the Risø TL/OSL reader, confirming that sediments transported by debrisflows contain the highest inherited luminesce signals. Infrared stimulation (IRSL) values in volcanic ash, lavas, and sand beach and dune deposits exhibit low scatter. However, with blue stimulation (BLSL) these samples reveal a large degree of scattering, attributed to charge transfer in the case of the coastal deposits and to the low sensitivity of quartz in the case of volcanic material. The luminescence signals of fluvial sediments exhibit a highly scattered distribution in both IRSL and BLSL. We conclude that the use of a PPSL unit is a simple approach to assess the degree of OSL signal resetting in deposits sourced from different geological environments. This research contributes to previous studies that have investigated new applications of the PPSL unit to assist in OSL dating of geological materials.  相似文献   

Calc-alkaline rear-arc magmatism in the Fuegian Andes: Implications for the mid-cretaceous tectonomagmatic evolution of southernmost South America     

Mauricio González Guillot  Mónica Escayola  Rogelio Acevedo 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2011,31(1):1-16

The magmatic arc of the Fuegian Andes is composed mostly of Upper Mesozoic to Cenozoic calc-alkaline plutons and subordinated lavas. To the rear arc, however, isolated mid-Cretaceous monzonitic plutons and small calc-alkaline dykes and sills crop out. This calc-alkaline unit (the Ushuaia Peninsula Andesites, UPA) includes hornblende-rich, porphyritic quartz meladiorites, granodiorites, andesites, dacites and lamprophyres. Radiometric dating and cross-cutting relationships indicate that UPA is younger than the monzonitic suite. The geochemistry of UPA is medium to high K, with high LILE (Ba 500–2000 ppm, Sr 800–1400 ppm), HFSE (Th 7–23 ppm, Nb 7–13 ppm, Ta 0.5–1.1 ppm) and LREE (La 16–51 ppm) contents, along with relatively low HREE (Yb 1.7–1.3 ppm) and Y (9–19 ppm). The similar mineralogy and geochemistry of all UPA rocks suggest they evolved from a common parental magma, by low pressure crystal fractionation, without significant crustal assimilation. A pure Rayleigh fractionation model indicates that 60–65% of crystal fractionation of 60% hornblende + 34% plagioclase + 4% clinopyroxene + 1% Fe-Ti oxide, apatite and sphene (a paragenesis similar of UPA mafic rocks) can explain evolution from lamprophyres to dacites. The UPA has higher LILE, HFSE and LREE, and lower HREE and Y than the calc-alkaline plutons and lavas of the volcanic front. The HREE and Y are lower than in the potassic plutons as well. High concentrations of Th, Nb, Ta, Zr, Hf, LREE and Ce/Pb, and low U/Th, Ba/Th ratios in UPA, even in the least differentiated samples, suggest contributions from subducted sediments to the mantle source. On the other hand, relatively low HREE and Y, high LREE/HREE (La/Yb 11–38) ratios and Nb-Ta contents can be interpreted as mantle metasomatism by partial melts of either subducted garnetiferous oceanic sediment or basalt as well. Additionally, high LILE content in UPA, similar to the potassic plutons, suggests also a mantle wedge previously metasomatized by potassic parental magmas in their route to crustal levels. Therefore, UPA represents a unique suite in the Fuegian arc generated in a multiple hybridized source. UPA generation is related to a transition from normal to flat subduction which additionally caused the widening and landward migration of the magmatic arc, as well as crustal deformation. Rear-arc magmatism endured ca. 22 m.y.; afterwards, calc-alkaline magmatism remained at the volcanic front.  相似文献   

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models     

Esther Salazar  Dorit Hammerling  Xia Wang  Bruno Sansó  Andrew O. Finley  Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.  相似文献   

Chemical and isotopic interpretation of major ion compositions from precipitation: a one-year temporal monitoring study in Wrocław,SW Poland     

M. Ciężka  M. Modelska  M. Górka  A. Trojanowska-Olichwer  D. Widory 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2016,73(1):61-80

The chemical compositions (Na⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO₂ ^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, HCO₃ ^?) of wet precipitation and nitrogen isotope compositions δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) were studied from January to December 2010 in Wroc?aw (SW Poland). Results of a principle component analysis show that 82 % of the data variability can be explained by three main factors: 1) F1 (40 %) observed during vegetative season (electrical conductivity, HCO₃ ^?, NO₃ ^?, NO₂ ^?, NH₄ ⁺ and SO₄ ^2?), mainly controlling rainwater mineralization; 2) F2 (26 %) observed during vegetative and heating seasons (K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺), probably representing a combination of two processes: anthropogenic dusts and fertilizers application in agricultural fields, and 3) F3 (16 %) reported mainly during heating season (Na⁺ and Cl^?) probably indicating the influence of marine aerosols. Variations of δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) from ?11.5 to 18.5?‰ identify three main pathways for the formation of NH₄ ⁺: 1) equilibrium fractionation between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 2) kinetic exchange between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 3) NH₄ ⁺ exchange between atmospheric salts particles and precipitation. The coupled chemical/statistical analysis and δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) approach shows that while fossil fuels burning is the main source of NH₄ ⁺ in precipitation during the heating season, during the vegetative season NH₄ ⁺ originates from local sewage irrigation fields in Osobowice or agricultural fertilizers.  相似文献   

Climate change and human impact in a sensitive ecosystem: the Holocene environment of the Northwest Icelandic highland margin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Sigrún D. Eddudóttir  Egill Erlendsson  Leone Tinganelli  Guðrún Gísladóttir 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(4):715-728

Complex interactions of climate and volcanic activity have shaped the environment of Iceland during the Holocene. Palaeoecological records from Iceland offer a unique look at a Holocene environment that was uninhabited by humans and free of mammal herbivores until about AD 870. We present a new reconstruction of Holocene vegetation and landscape dynamics from a small lake, Barðalækjartjörn, located near the highland margin in Northwest Iceland. A multi‐proxy approach was used to reconstruct vegetation based on pollen and plant macrofossil analysis and landscape stability based on lithological proxies. The record covers the period c. 10 300–200 cal. a BP. For the first two millennia aeolian processes probably played a part in vegetation development. This period is characterized by high input of minerogenic material into the lake and a vegetation assemblage in which plants tolerant of aeolian deposition are prominent. Betula pubescens woodland reached a maximum between c. 7400 and 6500 cal. a BP. Betula nana‐dominated dwarf shrub heath replaced woodland after c. 4000 cal. a BP, following the onset of Neoglaciation. Land use following human settlement caused an environmental shift at the highland margin. Betula pubescens probably disappeared from the vicinity of the lake soon thereafter. Large‐scale soil erosion began at c. 1000 cal. a BP in the wake of human activities, such as introduction of grazing livestock and woodcutting. This study offers an important long‐term perspective of the development of the highland ecosystem under both wholly natural and human‐influenced conditions.  相似文献   

Analysis of extreme rainfall in the Ebre Observatory (Spain)     

Núria Pérez-Zanón  M. Carmen Casas-Castillo  Raúl Rodríguez-Solà  Juan Carlos Peña  Anna Rius  J. Germán Solé  Ángel Redaño 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(3-4):935-944

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Partial duration series distributions of the European dry spell lengths for the second half of the twentieth century     

C. Serra  Xavier Lana  A. Burgueño  M. D. Martínez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,123(1-2):63-81

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