Window technique for climate trend analysis     

Tamás Szentimrey  Tibor Faragó  Sándor Szalai 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):127-134

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program  相似文献   

Period variation of selected cepheids     

József Vinkó 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1991,183(1):17-36

The aim of the present paper is to study the period as well as -velocity changes of 12 cepheid-type variable stars in order to find possible evidence for duplicity. Light-time effect was found in the O-C diagram of RY CMa, the orbital period being about 5200 days. Furthermore, especially spectroscopic observations are needed to confirm the duplicity or render the accurate orbital solution possible.  相似文献   

Cluster analysis of the space-time distribution of sunspot groups during solar cycle no. 20     

Kristóf Petrovay  Bashir K. Abuzeid 《Solar physics》1991,131(2):231-237

Cluster analysis (a Bayesian iteration procedure) was used to study the space-time distribution of sunspot groups in the time interval from 1965 to 1977. (Data were taken from the Greenwich and Debrecen Heliographic Results.) The distribution proved to be significantly non-random for the 8–10 groups cluster^–1 (gr cl^–1) level of clustering. Convincing evidence also favours non-random behaviour for other levels of clustering from the lowest (3–4 gr cl^–1) up to the highest ( 150 gr cl^–1) level. The rotation rate of the non-random pattern is generally slightly lower than the Carrington rate.The 8–10 gr cl^–1 level, crudely corresponding to the sunspot nests investigated earlier, was studied in more detail. The cycle- and latitude-averaged rotational rate of the nests is slightly ( 1%) but significantly lower than the Carrington rate. Their differential rotation is strongly reduced: the cycle-averaged rotational rate varies only by 2–3% within the sunspot belt. A slight but significant bimodality is seen in the differential rotation curve: the intermediate latitudes ( 10°–20°) show a somewhat slower rotation than both the equatorial and the higher latitude regions. This might be explained by a time-dependence of the rotation rate coupled with the butterfly diagram.  相似文献   

Strömgren photometry of a-stars: A test of physical parameter determination     

J. Torra  F. Figueras  C. Jordi  G. Rosselló 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,170(1-2):251-255

By use of known published values forT _eff, logg, andM _v, a check on our procedure for determining the physical parameters of A v-type stars from Strömgren photometry has been performed. External errors for our calculated physical parameters have been obtained.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献   

On the elliptic restricted three-body problem     

Jaume Llibre  Conxita Piñol 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,48(4):319-345

The main goal of this paper is to show that the elliptic restricted three-body problem has ejection-collision orbits when the mass parameter µ is small enough. We make use of the blow up techniques. Moreover, we describe the global flow of the elliptic problem when µ = 0 taking into account the singularities due to collision and to infinity.  相似文献   

Periodic orbits of an electric charge in a magnetic dipole field     

Lidia Jiménez-Lara  Eduardo Piña 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,49(4):327-345

Periodic orbits in the Stormer problem are studied using the symmetry lines of the Poincaré map introduced by De Vogelaere. Many known facts are explained by mean of these lines. The dynamics of four special symmetry lines when the Stormer parameter ₁ changes is presented, and we obtain a clear global view of the structure of the simple periodic orbits and their bifurcations, including the asymmetrical ones. New asymmetrical multiple periodic orbits are obtained.  相似文献   

Exact solution to radiation-filled Brans-Dicke closed space cosmology     

O. Obregón  P. Chauvet 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1978,56(2):335-339

Under the assumption of a power law (k·R ⁿ=C,C=const.) between the gravitational constantk and the radius of curvatureR of the Universe and forP=1/3 the exact solution is sought for the cosmological equations of Brans and Dicke. The solution turns out to be valid for closed space and the parameter of the scalar-tensor theory is necessarily negative. The radius of curvature increases linearly with respect to the age of the Universe while the gravitational constant grows with the square of the radius of curvature. It has been shown (Lessner, 1974) that in this case (KR ²) the spatial component of the field equations is independent of the remaining equations. However, our solution satisfies this independent equation. This solution for the radiation-dominated era corresponds to the solution for the matter-dominated era found by Dehnen and one of the authors (Dehnen and Obregón, 1971). Our solution, as is the solution previously obtained for the matter-dominated era, is in contradiction to Dirac's hypothesis in which the gravitational constant should decrease with time in an expanding Universe.  相似文献   

A Practical Procedure for the Measurement of Fragmentation by Blasting by Image Analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. A. Sanchidrián  P. Segarra  L. M. López 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2006,39(4):359-382

Summary. The operation of a digital image analysis system in a limestone quarry is described. The calibration of the system, required in order to obtain moderately reliable fragmentation values, is done from muckpile sieving data by tuning the image analysis software settings so that the fragmentation curve obtained matches as close as possible the sieving. The sieving data have also been used to extend the fragment size distribution curves measured to sizes below the system’s optical resolution and to process the results in terms of fragmented rock, discounting the material coming from a loose overburden (natural fines) that is cast together with the fragmented rock. Automatic and manual operation modes of the image analysis are compared. The total fragmentation of a blast is obtained from the analysis of twenty photographs; a criterion for the elimination of outlier photographs has been adopted using a robust statistic. The limitations of the measurement system due to sampling, image processing and fines corrections are discussed and the errors estimated whenever possible. An analysis of consistency of the results based on the known amount of natural fines is made. Blasts with large differences in the amount of fines require a differentiated treatment, as the fine sizes tend to be the more underestimated in the image analysis as they become more abundant; this has been accomplished by means of a variable fines adjustment factor. Despite of the unavoidable errors and the large dispersion always associated with large-scale rock blasting data, the system is sensitive to relative changes in fragmentation.  相似文献   

Catastrophic debris flows near Machu Picchu village (Aguas Calientes), Peru   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

V. Vilímek  J. Klimeš  J. Vlcko  R. Carreño 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(7):1041-1052

Slope movements together with intensive river erosion and the following accumulation are the leading processes in the landscape evolution in the area of Machu Picchu village (former Aguas Calientes), which is located close to the Machu Picchu Sanctuary. Debris flows affect not only the bottoms of valleys or canyons, but also debris fans at the termini of the drainage basins, which are heavily inhabited at some places. The most recent event in the Machu Picchu village occurred in April 2004, but several others were documented in a broader area in the last 50 years. The field inspections at Machu Picchu (May and September 2004; June and September 2005) together with oral testimony revealed the nature and behavior of the debris flow. Machu Picchu village can be assessed as a zone with high landslide risk in relation to its urban development. Despite that, the village recorded a rapid growth (threefold population increase) without urban control within the past two decades. Precipitation, which is the main triggering factor of the debris flows, and natural hazard management of the Machu Picchu village are discussed in this paper.  相似文献   

Reconstructing hydrological variability from testate amoebae analysis in Carpathian peatlands     

C. Schnitchen  D. J. Charman  E. Magyari  M. Braun  I. Grigorszky  B. Tóthmérész  M. Molnár  Zs. Szántó 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(1):1-17

Peatlands offer the potential for high resolution records of water balance over Holocene timescales, yet this potential is under-exploited in many areas of the world. Within Europe, peatlands are mostly confined to areas north of 55° N, but several areas of southern and eastern Europe contain small peatlands which may be suitable for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper we test the potential of peatlands in the Carpathian region for deriving quantified estimates of water table changes using testate amoebae analysis. A training set for palaeohydrological reconstruction from testate amoebae assemblages was obtained by collecting surface samples from 13 peatlands, including 9 from Hungary and 4 from Transylvania (Romania). Using a simple measure of mean annual water tables estimated from staining of PVC tape, we found that some peatlands were heavily influenced by runoff and groundwater, and were therefore not suitable as modern analogues of ombrotrophic climatically sensitive sites. The relationship between the testate amoebae assemblages in the modern samples and the environmental variables was explored using CCA. The CCA biplot showed that the most important variables are depth to water table and moisture content, confirming that hydrology is a key control on taxon distribution. pH was a secondary gradient. A transfer function for % moisture and depth to water table was established and applied to fossil assemblages from a sequence from Fenyves-tető, Transylvania, Romania. The reconstructed water table shows a number of variations which have parallels with other palaeoclimatic records from Europe and the North Atlantic prominent phases of higher water tables are associated with the periods 8000–8300 cal BP, 3000–2500 cal BP and after 600 cal BP. We suggest that these were periods of particular intensification of westerly airflow which affected eastern Europe as well as western and central Europe.  相似文献