Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature     

Martin?IvanovEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Kirsten?Warrach-Sagi  Volker?Wulfmeyer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):219-237

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as “field” or “global” significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.  相似文献   

From Near-Neutral to Strongly Stratified: Adequately Modelling the Clear-Sky Nocturnal Boundary Layer at Cabauw     

P. Baas  B. J. H. van de Wiel  S. J. A. van der Linden  F. C. Bosveld 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,166(2):217-238

The performance of an atmospheric single-column model (SCM) is studied systematically for stably-stratified conditions. To this end, 11 years (2005–2015) of daily SCM simulations were compared to observations from the Cabauw observatory, The Netherlands. Each individual clear-sky night was classified in terms of the ambient geostrophic wind speed with a \(1\hbox { m} \hbox { s}^{-1}\) bin-width. Nights with overcast conditions were filtered out by selecting only those nights with an average net radiation of less than \(-\,30\hbox { W }\hbox {m}^{-2}\). A similar procedure was applied to the observational dataset. A comparison of observed and modelled ensemble-averaged profiles of wind speed and potential temperature and time series of turbulent fluxes showed that the model represents the dynamics of the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) at Cabauw very well for a broad range of mechanical forcing conditions. No obvious difference in model performance was found between near-neutral and strongly-stratified conditions. Furthermore, observed NBL regime transitions are represented in a natural way. The reference model version performs much better than a model version that applies excessive vertical mixing as is done in several (global) operational models. Model sensitivity runs showed that for weak-wind conditions the inversion strength depends much more on details of the land-atmosphere coupling than on the turbulent mixing. The presented results indicate that in principle the physical parametrizations of large-scale atmospheric models are sufficiently equipped for modelling stably-stratified conditions for a wide range of forcing conditions.  相似文献   

Measurements of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> ions and trace gases with the online system MARGA at the research station Melpitz in Germany – A five-year study     

B.?Stieger  G.?Spindler  B.?Fahlbusch  K.?Müller  A.?Grüner  L.?Poulain  L.?Th?ni  E.?Seitler  M.?Wallasch  H.?HerrmannEmail author 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2018,75(1):33-70

An hourly quantification of inorganic water-soluble PM₁₀ ions and corresponding trace gases was performed using the Monitor for AeRosols and Gases in ambient Air (MARGA) at the TROPOS research site in Melpitz, Germany. The data availability amounts to over 80% for the five-year measurement period from 2010 to 2014. Comparisons were performed for the evaluation of the MARGA, resulting in coefficients of determinations (slopes) of 0.91 (0.90) for the measurements against the SO₂ gas monitor, 0.84 (0.88), 0.79 (1.39), 0.85 (1.20) for the ACSM NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2? and NH₄ ⁺ measurements, respectively, and 0.85 (0.65), 0.88 (0.68), 0.91 (0.83), 0.86 (0.82) for the filter measurements of Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2? and NH₄ ⁺, respectively. A HONO comparison with a batch denuder shows large scatter (R² = 0.41). The MARGA HNO₃ is underestimated compared to a batch and coated denuder with shorter inlets (slopes of 0.16 and 0.08, respectively). Less NH₃ was observed in coated denuders for high ambient concentrations. Long-time measurements show clear daily and seasonal variabilities. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis indicates the emission area of particulate ions Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺ and gaseous SO₂ to lie in eastern European countries, predominantly in wintertime. Coarse mode sea salt particles are transported from the North Sea to Melpitz. The particles at Melpitz are nearly neutralised with a mean molar ratio of 0.90 for the five-year study. A slight increase of the neutralization ratio over the last three years indicates a stronger decrease of the anthropogenically emitted NO₃ ^? and SO₄ ^2? compared to NH₄ ⁺.  相似文献   

The Intertidal Burrowing Crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Neohelice</Emphasis> (=<Emphasis Type="Italic">Chasmagnathus</Emphasis>) <Emphasis Type="Italic">granulata</Emphasis> Positively Affects Foraging of Rodents in South Western Atlantic Salt Marshes     

Alejandro?D.?Canepuccia  Maria?S.?Fanjul  Eugenia?Fanjul  Florencia?Botto  Oscar?O.?Iribarne  Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas  Departamento de Biología  Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata  Mar del Plata  Argentina 《Estuaries and Coasts》2008,31(5):920-930

The role of positive and indirect interactions is often crucial in communities with intense abiotic stress such as salt marshes. The burrowing crab, Neohelice (=Chasmagnathus) granulata, is the dominant benthic macroinvertebrate of southwest Atlantic marshes (southern Brazil to Northern Argentinean Patagonia), having strong direct and indirect effects on marsh soil and, in consequence, on marsh vegetation and primary consumers. In this work, we investigate if this crab indirectly modifies habitat use by the granivorous rodents, Akodon azarae and Oligoryzomys flavescens, by increasing nutrient availability and thus enhancing seed production by the marsh plant Spartina densiflora. The study was conducted at the Mar Chiquita Coastal Lagoon, Argentina (37°32′ S). Rodent frequencies in S. densiflora were positively correlated with crab densities throughout the low and middle marsh. Additionally, the highest quality of S. densiflora and inflorescence density was recorded at the highest crab densities. Experimental manipulation of crab densities shows that N. granulata indirectly enhances the performance of S. densiflora (e.g., decreased fiber content and C/N ratios) and increases density of seeds. Moreover, N. granulata also facilitates S. densiflora seed availability to rodents by concentrating them in sediment mound at their burrows entrances. Experimental rodent exclusions showed that rodent species used S. densiflora seeds, a variable positively related to crab burrow density. Thus, our results show that N. granulata drives the granivorous rodent distribution and the intensity of seeds–rodent interaction trough facilitative and indirect interactions in marsh community.  相似文献   

Analysis of coupled Sr/Ca and Sr/Sr variations in enamel using laser-ablation tandem quadrupole-multicollector ICPMS     

Vincent Balter  Philippe Telouk  José Braga  Francis Albarède 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(16):3980-3990

We present in this study results obtained with a laser-ablation coupled with both a quadrupole and a multi-collector ICPMS. The simultaneous in situ Sr/Ca and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr measurements along growth profiles in enamel allows the concomitant diet and migration patterns in mammals to be reconstructed. Aliquots of the powdered international standard NIST “SRM1400 Bone Ash” with certified Sr and Ca contents, was sintered at high pressure and temperature and was adopted as the reference material for external reproducibility and calibration of the results. A total of 145 coupled elemental and isotopic measurements of herbivores enamel from the Kruger National Park, South Africa, gives intra-tooth Sr/Ca and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variations that are well larger than external reproducibility. Sr/Ca profiles systematically decrease from the dentine-enamel junction to the outer enamel whereas ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr profiles exhibit variable patterns. Using a simple geometric model of hypsodont teeth growth, we demonstrate that a continuous recording of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variations can be reconstructed in the tooth length axis. This suggests that the mobility of a mammal can be reconstructed over a period of more than a year with a resolution of a ten of days, by sampling enamel along growth profiles. Our geometric model of hypsodont teeth growth predicts that an optimal distance between two successive profiles is equal to the enamel thickness. However, this model does not apply to the Sr/Ca signal which is likely to be altered during the enamel maturation stage due to differential maturation processes along enamel thickness. Here, the observed constant decreases of the Sr/Ca ratios in the ungulates of Kruger National Park suggests that they did not changed of diet, while some of them were migrating.  相似文献   

Prograde garnet growth along complex <Emphasis Type="Italic">P–T–t</Emphasis> paths: results from numerical experiments on polyphase garnet from the Wölz Complex (Austroalpine basement)     

F. Gaidies  C. de Capitani  R. Abart  R. Schuster 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2008,155(6):673-688

Garnet in metapelites from the Wölz Complex of the Austroalpine crystalline basement east of the Tauern Window characteristically consists of two growth phases, which preserve a comprehensive record of the geothermal history during polymetamorphism. From numerical modelling of garnet formation, detailed information on the pressure–temperature–time (P–T–t) evolution during prograde metamorphism is obtained. In that respect, the combined influences of chemical fractionation associated with garnet growth, modification of the original growth zoning through intragranular diffusion and the nucleation history on the chemical zoning of garnet as P and T change during growth are considered. The concentric chemical zoning observed in garnet and the homogenous rock matrix, which is devoid of chemical segregation, render the simulation of garnet growth through successive equilibrium states reliable. Whereas the first growth phase of garnet was formed at isobaric conditions of ～3.8 kbar at low heating/cooling rates, the second growth phase grew along a Barrovian P–T path marked with a thermal peak of ～625°C at ～10 kbar and a maximum in P of ～10.4 kbar at ～610°C. For the heating rate during the growth of the second phase of garnet, average rates faster than 50°C Ma^?1 are obtained. From geochronological investigations the first growth phase of garnet from the Wölz Complex pertains to the Permian metamorphic event. The second growth phase grew in the course of Eo-Alpine metamorphism during the Cretaceous.  相似文献   

Anaerobic decomposition of tropical soils and plant material: Implication for the CO₂ and CH₄ budget of the Petit Saut Reservoir   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Frdric Gurin  Gwenaël Abril  Alexis de Junet  Marie-Paule Bonnet 《Applied Geochemistry》2008,23(8):2272-2283

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Geochemistry of the Mamil Choique granitoids at Rio Chico, Río Negro, Argentina: Late Paleozoic crustal melting in the North Patagonian Massif     

Mnica G. Lpez de Luchi  María Elena Cerredo 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2008,25(4):526-546

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Metalliferous paragenesis of the San José mine, Oruro, Bolivia     

F. Keutsch  M.K. de Brodtkorb   《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2008,25(4):485-491

The San José silver–tin deposit, Oruro, is located in the Cordillera Oriental, which contains most of the metalliferous mineralizations of Bolivia and is related to a quartz-latite dome of Miocene age. The mineral paragenesis encountered in this study is composed of cassiterite, stannite, miargyrite, pyrargyrite, andorite and Bi-rich andorite, jamesonite, pavonite/benjaminite, boulangerite, owyheeite, ramdohrite and Bi-rich ramdohrite, bismuthinite, besides pyrite, chalcopyrite, Ag-rich tetrahedrite, galena and sphalerite, all of which are analyzed by electron microprobe analysis. With semi-quantitative SEM/EDS and XRD analyses, rhodostannite and kësterite/ferrokësterite were found in association with andorite, and chalcostibite was determined by XRD, in association with zinkenite, tetrahedrite and pyrite.  相似文献   

International viewpoint and news     

Anne Marie de Grosbois 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(6):1353-1354

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