Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland     

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Mikołaj Piniewski  Abdelkader Mezghani  Tomasz Okruszko  Iwona Pińskwar  Ignacy Kardel  Øystein Hov  Mateusz Szcześniak  Małgorzata Szwed  Rasmus E. Benestad  Paweł Marcinkowski  Dariusz Graczyk  Andreas Dobler  Eirik J. Førland  Joanna O’Keefe  Adam Choryński  Kajsa M. Parding  Jan Erik Haugen 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(6):1509-1523

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.  相似文献   

Large-scale mass wasting on the north Spitsbergen continental margin, Arctic Ocean   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

N. Z. Cherkis  M. D. Max  P. R. Vogt  K. Crane  A. Midthassel  E. Sundvor 《Geo-Marine Letters》1999,19(1-2):131-142

 Closely spaced, single-beam bathymetric and side-scan sonar investigations on the northern slope of the western Svalbard insular platform have revealed the presence of a Late Quaternary slump complex forming a hanging-wall slump canyon near the head of the Malene Bukta (Malene Bay) bathymetric embayment in the northern continental margin. Repeated slump erosion may be responsible for development of this young feature and the Malene Bukta Embayment. Focusing of the slumping may be due to the trapping of gas at shallow sea-floor depths by gas hydrate, with the consequent formation of subjacent gas-rich, low shear-strength decollement zones. Faults have likely controlled the upward migration of gas into the younger sedimentary prism.  相似文献   

Increased Precipitation in the Norwegian Arctic: True or False?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Eirik J. Førland  Inger Hanssen-Bauer 《Climatic change》2000,46(4):485-509

Results from the WMO Solid Precipitation MeasurementIntercomparison and parallel precipitationmeasurements from Svalbard are used to evaluate andadjust models for estimating true precipitation underArctic conditions. The conclusion is that trueprecipitation in the Arctic may be estimatedreasonably well when the wind speed at gauge height isless than 7 m/s. It is possible to give good estimatesof true annual and seasonal precipitation at Svalbard,as only a small part of the precipitation is fallingat wind speeds above 7 m/s. For rough calculations,the correction factors for liquid precipitation isestimated to be 1.15 and for solid precipitation1.85.The developed correction models are used to estimateamounts and trends of true precipitation for two sitesin the Norwegian Arctic. In Ny-Ålesund the trueannual precipitation is more than 50% higher than themeasured amount. As the aerodynamic effects leading toprecipitation undercatch are dependent onprecipitation type and temperature, the observed andprojected increase in the air temperature in theArctic would also affect the measured precipitation,even if the true precipitation was unchanged. Sincethe mid 1960s the temperature at Svalbard Airport hasincreased by 0.5 °C per decade, resulting in areduced fraction of annual precipitation falling assnow. In the same period, the measured precipitationhas increased by 2.9% per decade and the `true' by1.7% per decade. Estimates are made of the fictitiousprecipitation increase that would result from ageneral temperature increase of 2, 4 and 6 °C. The increase in the measured annual precipitationwould be 6, 10 and 13%, respectively. The expectedfictitious precipitation increase is thus of the samemagnitude as the real precipitation increase whichaccording to recent GCM projections may be expected inNorthern Europe as a result of a doubling of theatmospheric CO₂ content.  相似文献   

Ground-Truthing 11- to 12-kHz side-scan sonar imagery in the Norwegian–Greenland Sea: Part II: Probable diapirs on the Bear Island fan slide valley margins and the Vøring Plateau     

P. R. Vogt  K. Crane  E. Sundvor  B. O. Hjelstuen  J. Gardner  F. Bowles  G. Cherkashev 《Geo-Marine Letters》1999,19(1-2):111-130

SeaMARC II (11- to 12-kHz) side-scan sonar revealed hundreds of small strong-backscatter spots, tens to 500?m in diameter, along the lips of the Bear Island fan slide valley. New bathymetry, deep-tow side-scan, deep-tow profiles, heatflow, and gravity cores were collected for ground-truth. These mounds are probably mud diapirs (or mud-built mounds) typically 10–75?m high, formed by glacial sediment mobilized by Late Pleistocene slide events. The mounds are arranged along NNE trending lines, suggesting control by intrasedimentary faults ca. 0.5–1 km apart. Diapirs examined on the Vøring Plateau exhibit WNW structural control. No heatflow anomaly was found in four stations on or next to diapirs in either area.  相似文献   

Seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of precipitation and snow depth in the region of the Barents and Kara seas     

Yevgeniy I. Aleksandrov  Nikolay N. Bryazgin  Eirik J. Førland  Vladimir F. Radionov  Pavel N. Svyashchennikov 《Polar research》2005,24(1-2):69-85

Observation data of temperature, precipitation and snow depth have been compiled and generalized climatologically for a network of 38 stations in and around the Barents and Kara seas, for the period 1951–1992. The monthly precipitation totals were corrected for measuring errors, and the correction method is described in detail. The corrected precipitation values show that the annual precipitation in the region ranges from more than 500 mm along the coast of the Kola Peninsula to less than 200 mm in parts of the north-eastern Kara Sea. The solid fraction of the annual precipitation ranges from 70% in northern parts to 35% in southern parts. For the period 1951–1992 the analysis indicates decreasing trends in annual values of temperature, precipitation and snow depths in the north-eastern parts of the region.  相似文献   

The margin between Senja and Spitsbergen fracture zones: Implications from plate tectonics     

Annik M. Myhre  Olav Eldholm  Eirik Sundvor 《Tectonophysics》1982,89(1-3)

Analysis of multichannel seismic data from the continental margin off Svalbard between the Senja and Spitsbergen fracture zones suggests that the transition between continental and oceanic crust is located at or close to the Hornsund Fault Zone. In the Late Paleocene/Early Eoeene (57 m.y.) the region between Svalbard and Northeast-Greenland was subjected to regional shear movements associated with a transform system between the young Lofoten-Greenland Basin and the Arctic Ocean. Approximately 50 m.y. ago the spreading axis migrated to the northeast creating a deep basin north of the Greenland-Senja Fracture Zone forming the passive margin between Bear Island and 76.5°N. North of 76.5°N the regional transform was maintained. At the time of the main reorganization of relative plate motion (36 m.y.) the northern margin evolved. A continental fragment was possibly cut off from the Svalbard margin forming a small microcontinent. The microcontinent appears as the submarine ridge which has been associated with the Hovgaard Fracture Zone. It is suggested that the sediments west of the Hornsund Fault Zone are not older than Eocene in the south and mid-Oligocene in the north. The position of the spreading axis has greatly influenced the margin sedimentation.  相似文献   

Isotopic evidence for multiple contributions to felsic magma chambers: Gouldsboro Granite, Coastal Maine   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tod E. Waight  Robert A. Wiebe  Eirik J. Krogstad   《Lithos》2007,93(3-4):234-247

The Gouldsboro Granite forms part of the Coastal Maine Magmatic Province, a region characterized by granitic plutons that are intimately linked temporally and petrogenetically with abundant co-existing mafic magmas. The pluton is complex and preserves a felsic magma chamber underlain by contemporaneous mafic magmas; the transition between the two now preserved as a zone of chilled mafic sheets and pillows in granite. Mafic components have highly variably isotopic compositions as a result of contamination either at depth or following injection into the magma chamber. Intermediate dikes with identical isotopic compositions to more mafic dikes suggest that closed system fractionation may be occurring in deeper level chambers prior to injection to shallower levels. The granitic portion of the pluton has the highest Nd isotopic composition (ε_Nd = + 3.0) of plutons in the region whereas the mafic lithologies have Nd isotopic compositions (ε_Nd = + 3.5) that are the lowest in the region and similar to the granite and suggestive of prolonged interactions and homogenization of the two components. Sr and Nd isotopic data for felsic enclaves are inconsistent with previously suggested models of diffusional exchange between the contemporaneous mafic magmas and the host granite to explain highly variable alkali contents. The felsic enclaves have relatively low Nd isotopic compositions (ε_Nd = + 2 – + 1) indicative of the involvement of a third, lower ε_Nd melt during granite petrogenesis, perhaps represented by pristine granitic dikes contemporaneous with the nearby Pleasant Bay Layered Intrusion. The dikes at Pleasant Bay and the felsic enclaves at Gouldsboro likely represent remnants of the silicic magmas that originally fed and replenished the overlying granitic magma chambers. The large isotopic (and chemical) contrasts between the enclaves and granitic dikes and granitic magmas may be in part a consequence of extended interactions between the granitic magmas and co-existing mafic magmas by mixing, mingling and diffusion. Alternatively, the granitic magmas may represent an additional crustal source. Using granitic rocks such as these with abundant evidence for interactions with mafic magmas complicate their use in constraining crustal sources and tectonic settings. Fine-grained dike rocks may provide more meaningful information, but must be used with caution as these may also have experienced compositional changes during mafic–felsic interactions.  相似文献   

Seawater intrusion and fresh groundwater hydraulics in fjord delta aquifers inferred from ground penetrating radar and resistivity profiles—Sunndalsøra and Esebotn, western Norway     

Oddmund Soldal  Eirik Mauring  Erik Halvorsen  Noralf Rye 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》1994,32(4)

Geophysical surveys have been carried out in two fjord delta aquifers in western Norway. Geophysical methods comprised ground penetrating radar (GPR), shallow reflection seismic and resistivity measurements. The purpose of the investigations was to evaluate hydrogeological properties of the fjord delta aquifers with emphasis on the possibilities of abstracting saline groundwater for use in fish farming. At Sunndalsøra, reflection seismic was helpful in the mapping of the base of the aquifer. Resistivity profiles revealed both the spatial and seasonal variability of seawater intrusion. Penetration depths of ground penetrating radar (GPR-D) revealed the spatial variation of the boundary of the transition zone between saline and fresh groundwater. Maps of GPR-D can be used to indicate direction and magnitude of mean hydraulic gradients and thus to locate optimal sites for both fresh and saline groundwater abstraction.In fjord delta aquifers, both rivers and abandoned river channels constitute important groundwater divides. Optimal locations for saline groundwater abstraction wells are in areas separated from the rivers by abandoned river channels. In areas between the rivers and the abandoned river channels, groundwater abstraction will result in decreasing salinity of the water.  相似文献   

Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change   总被引：40，自引：0，他引：40  

Pavel Ya. Groisman  Thomas R. Karl  David R. Easterling  Richard W. Knight  Paul F. Jamason  Kevin J. Hennessy  Ramasamy Suppiah  Cher M. Page  Joanna Wibig  Krzysztof Fortuniak  Vyacheslav N. Razuvaev  Arthur Douglas  Eirik Førland  Pan-Mao Zhai 《Climatic change》1999,42(1):243-283

A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fifty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.  相似文献   

Seismic refraction and reflection measurements in the southern Barents Sea     

Eirik Sundvor 《Marine Geology》1974,16(5):255-273

Seismic refraction and continuous reflection measurements were made in the southern Barents Sea. On the basis of these investigations and earlier data from the area, the total thickness of sediments and thickness of the semiconsolidated section have been mapped. The main part of the investigated area consists of Mesozoic and Paleozoic sediments, while the areas near the shelf edge show a westward increasing wedge of Cenozoic deposits above the same sediments found to the east. Along the Norwegian coast and in the areas southwest of Bjørnøya a rapid increase of sediments is noted, while a much more gentle westward growth is found in the main part of the Barents shelf. The data suggest the southern flank of Bjørnøyrenna is an area of structural deformation. Structures that can be associated with salt diapirs are recorded in a limited area on Tromsøflaket.  相似文献