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31.
The paper illustrates how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made
sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments. Predicted values in residential use based on a hedonic
analysis of residential property prices is found to have a significant effect on the hazard of development in a survival model
used to explain the likelihood that a farm or forest will be converted to residential use. Policy instruments are imbedded
in both the hedonic model of residential property values and a hazard model of parcel conversion, so as to test how effective
changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change. Some of the statistical and modeling obstacles that
impede progress on this spatially explicit modeling are also discussed. 相似文献
32.
It is already known (Froeschlé, Lega and Gonczi, 1997) that the Fast Lyapunov Indicator (FLI), that is the computation on a relatively short time of the largest Lyapunov indicator, allows to discriminate between ordered and weak chaotic motion. We have found that, under certain conditions, the FLI also discriminates between resonant and non-resonant orbits, not only for two-dimensional symplectic mappings but also for higher dimensional ones. Using this indicator, we present an example of the Arnold web detection for four and six-dimensional symplectic maps. We show that this method allows to detect the global transition of the system from an exponentially stable Nekhoroshevs like regime to the diffusive Chirikovs one. 相似文献
33.
S. S. Arefiev E. A. Rogozhin V. V. Bykova C. Dorbath 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2006,42(1):27-40
The Racha earthquake of 1991 was the strongest of the earthquakes recorded in the Caucasus. It was studied by an international epicentral expedition. Unique data gathered by this expedition included records of aftershocks whose swarm was very intense. A 3-D velocity model is obtained from analysis of these data by the method of local earthquake tomography. The ancient crystalline basement and the sedimentary-volcanic Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover could be identified from cross sections of the P wave field. The eastern and western boundaries of an uplift in the basement of the Dzirulskii Massif are delineated. Linear low velocity heterogeneities correlating with the active Kakheti-Lechkhumi fault zone and two Trans-Caucasian linear fault zones are discovered in the basement. The cloud of aftershock hypocenters is shown to correlate with a reflector coinciding with the cover-basement interface. 相似文献
34.
S. S. Arefiev Zh. Ya. Aptekman V. V. Bykova I. V. Matveev A. G. Mikhin S. G. Molotkov K. G. Pletnev V. V. Pogrebchenko 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2006,42(2):167-177
Results derived from processing of data of field observations in the epicentral zone of the Altai earthquake of 2003 are presented. Accurate location of aftershocks showed that their spatial distribution is in good agreement with the source rupture outcropping on the Earth’s surface. According to aftershock data, the source had a length of 75 km and a maximum width of 20 km and extended in the vertical direction for 17 km; the displacement in the source averaged 2.5 m. Clusters identified in the aftershock cloud define variously dipping planes. The location of hypocenters by regional, national, and global seismic networks is not accurate enough to examine spatial features of the aftershocks. 相似文献
35.
High-pressure liquids in the MgO-SiO2-H2O (MSH) system have been investigated at 11 and 13.5 GPa and between 1000 and 1350 °C. A bulk composition more magnesian than the tie-line forsterite-H2O was employed for the study. Rocking multi-anvil experiments were combined with a diamond trap set-up. After termination of the experiments, the liquid trapped in the diamond layer was analysed by laser ablation ICP-MS using the ‘freezing’ technique. At 11 GPa, liquids coexist with one or two of phase A, clinohumite, chondrodite, and forsterite. A marked discontinuity in the evolution of liquid compositions near 1100 °C is observed at 11 GPa. A step of ∼13 wt% H2O and 13 wt% MgO is interpreted to result from overstepping the fluid-saturated solidus reaction mass balanced to 1.00(18) phase A + 1.07(4) fluid = 0.63(15) chondrodite + 1.44(2) melt. At 13.5 GPa liquids coexist with one or two of hydrous wadsleyite, clinohumite, superhydrous B, phase B, and forsterite. The discontinuity in liquid composition is no longer present, indicating that the second critical endpoint of the solidus has been overstepped. Thus, hydrous melts in the Mg-rich part of the MSH system (molar bulk Mg/Si > 2) are chemically distinct from aqueous fluids at pressure up to 11 GPa. Convergence of fluid and melt compositions along the solidus resulting in a supercritical liquid occurs between 11 and 13.5 GPa, at which pressure the entire MSH system becomes supercritical. 相似文献
36.
Mariusz Majdaski Elena Kozlovskaya Marek Grad SUDETES Working Group 《Tectonophysics》2007,437(1-4):17-36
The SUDETES 2003 wide-angle refraction/reflection experiment covered the area of the south-western Poland and the northern Bohemian Massif. The good quality data that were gathered combined with the data from previous experiments (POLONAISE'97, CELEBRATION 2000) allowed us to prepare a 3D seismic model of the crust and uppermost mantle for this area. We inverted travel times of both refracted and reflected P waves using the JIVE3D package. This allowed us to obtain a model of P-wave velocity distribution as well as the shape of major boundaries in the crust. We also present a detailed uncertainty analysis for both the boundary depths and the velocity field. In doing the uncertainty analysis we found an interesting, strong dependence between uncertainty and inversion scheme (order of used phases). We also compared the model with surface geology and found good correlation between velocity inhomogeneities in the uppermost crust (down to 2 km) and major geological units. The higher velocity lower crust (6.9–7.2 km/s) could result from remelting of the lower crust or magmatic underplating. 相似文献
37.
Using the standard map as a model problem and in the spirit of cluster analysis we have studied the invariance of the distributions of different indicators introduced to detect and measure weak chaos. We show that the problem is less straightforward than expected and that, except for very strong chaotic dynamical systems, all the complexities (islands, sticking phenomena, cantori) of mixed Hamiltonian systems are reflected into the indicators of convergence towards invariant distributions. 相似文献
38.
39.
Mario Bossolasco Guiseppe Cicconi Ignazio Dagnino Antonio Elena Giuseppe Flocchini 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1965,62(1):207-214
Summary The relationship, already found by the authors, between sunspot numbers and the solar constant, as deduced from the highest global irradiance values at noon, is here reexamined and confirmed. Some attempts at explanation and further inferences are presented. 相似文献
40.
Michel Magny Odile Peyron Laura Sadori Elena Ortu Giovanni Zanchetta Boris Vannière Willy Tinner 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(3):290-296
Pollen‐based quantitative estimates of seasonal precipitation from Lake Pergusa and lake‐level data from Lake Preola in Sicily (southern Italy) allow three successive periods to be distinguished within the Holocene: an early Holocene period before ca. 9800 cal a BP with rather dry climate conditions in winter and summer, a mid‐Holocene period between ca. 9800 and 4500 cal a BP with maximum winter and summer wetness, and a late Holocene period after 4500 cal a BP with declining winter and summer wetness. This evolution observed in the south‐central Mediterranean shows strong similarities to that recognized in the eastern Mediterranean. But, it contrasts with that reconstructed in north‐central Italy, where the mid‐Holocene appears to be characterized by a winter (summer) precipitation maximum (minimum), while the late Holocene coincided with a decrease (increase) in winter (summer) precipitation. Maximum precipitation at ca. 10 000–4500 cal a BP may have resulted from (i) increased local convection in response to a Holocene insolation maximum at 10 000 cal a BP and then (ii) the gradual weakening of the Hadley cell activity, which allowed the winter rainy westerlies to reach the Mediterranean area more frequently. After 4500 cal a BP, changes in precipitation seasonality may reflect non‐linear responses to orbitally driven insolation decrease in addition to seasonal and inter‐hemispheric changes of insolation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献