Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Karen Fisher-Vanden  Ian Sue Wing  Elisa Lanzi  David Popp 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):481-495

This paper offers a critical review of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts in integrated assessment have concentrated on developing baseline trajectories of emissions and mitigation scenario analyses. A key missing component in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is the representation of climate impacts and adaptation responses. In this paper, we identify key biases that are introduced when climate impacts and adaptation responses are omitted from the analysis and review the state of modeling studies that attempt to capture these feedbacks. A common problem in these IAM studies is the lack of connection with empirical studies. We therefore also review the state of the empirical work on climate impacts and identify ways that this connection could be improved.  相似文献   

Terrestrial planet formation surrounding close binary stars     

Elisa V. Quintana  Jack J. Lissauer 《Icarus》2006,185(1):1-20

Most stars reside in binary/multiple star systems; however, previous models of planet formation have studied growth of bodies orbiting an isolated single star. Disk material has been observed around both components of some young close binary star systems. Additionally, it has been shown that if planets form at the right places within such disks, they can remain dynamically stable for very long times. Herein, we numerically simulate the late stages of terrestrial planet growth in circumbinary disks around ‘close’ binary star systems with stellar separations 0.05 AU?aB?0.4 AU and binary eccentricities 0?eB?0.8. In each simulation, the sum of the masses of the two stars is 1 M_⊙, and giant planets are included. The initial disk of planetary embryos is the same as that used for simulating the late stages of terrestrial planet formation within our Solar System by Chambers [Chambers, J.E., 2001. Icarus 152, 205-224], and around each individual component of the α Centauri AB binary star system by Quintana et al. [Quintana, E.V., Lissauer, J.J., Chambers, J.E., Duncan, M.J., 2002. Astrophys. J. 576, 982-996]. Multiple simulations are performed for each binary star system under study, and our results are statistically compared to a set of planet formation simulations in the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system that begin with essentially the same initial disk of protoplanets. The planetary systems formed around binaries with apastron distances QB≡aB(1+eB)?0.2 AU are very similar to those around single stars, whereas those with larger maximum separations tend to be sparcer, with fewer planets, especially interior to 1 AU. We also provide formulae that can be used to scale results of planetary accretion simulations to various systems with different total stellar mass, disk sizes, and planetesimal masses and densities.  相似文献   

Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador     

Elisa Armijos  Alain Laraque  Sonia Barba  Luc Bourrel  Catalina Ceron  Christelle Lagane 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1478-1494

Abstract

Water discharge and suspended and dissolved sediment data from three rivers (Napo, Pastaza and Santiago) in the Ecuadorian Amazon basin and a river in the Pacific basin (Esmeraldas) over a 9-year period, are presented. This data set allows us to present: (a) the chemical weathering rates; (b) the erosion rates, calculated from the suspended sediment from the Andean basin; (c) the spatio-temporal variability of the two regions; and (d) the relationship between this variability and the precipitation, topography, lithology and seismic activity of the area. The dissolved solids load from the Esmeraldas basin was 2 × 10⁶ t year^-1, whereas for the Napo, Pastaza and Santiago basins, it was 4, 2 and 3 × 10⁶ t year^-1, respectively. For stations in the Andean piedmont of Ecuador, the relationship between surface sediment and the total sediment concentration was found to be close to one. This is due to minimal stratification of the suspended sediment in the vertical profile, which is attributed to turbulence and high vertical water speeds. However, during the dry season, when the water speed decreases, sediment stratification appears, but this effect can be neglected in the sediment flux calculations due to low concentration rates. The suspended sediment load in the Pacific basin was 6 × 10⁶ t year^-1, and the total for the three Amazon basins was 47 × 10⁶ t year^-1. The difference between these contributions of the suspended sediment load is likely due to the tectonic uplift and the seismic and volcanic dynamics that occur on the Amazon side.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Armijos, E., Laraque, A., Barba, S., Bourrel, L., Ceron, C., Lagane, C., Magat, P., Moquet, J.-S., Pombosa, R., Sondag, F., Vauchel, P., Vera, A., and Guyot, J.L., 2013. Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1478–1494.  相似文献   

Subsurface thermal conductivity assessment in Calabria (southern Italy): a regional case study     

Eloisa Di Sipio  Antonio Galgaro  Elisa Destro  Giordano Teza  Sergio Chiesa  Aurelio Giaretta  Adele Manzella 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(5):1383-1401

Determining the suitability of a local area at a regional or local scale for the geothermal application of low enthalpy systems requires the knowledge of rock thermal conductivity values to evaluate the possibility of low-enthalpy heat exchange. A digital cartographic tool is also needed to synthesize the thermal properties of the underground. This tool should be easily accessible and upgradeable and thus suitable for territorial planning and environmental control. In order to address these key issues, a methodological approach was developed within the framework of the national VIGOR Project, dedicated to evaluating the geothermal potential in southern Italy. In this paper the region of Calabria was selected as a case study. Around 70 samples that were representative of the main geological formations were collected from all over the area. Thermal property tests were carried out both in dry and wet conditions, using a thermal device in accordance with the modified transient plane source method. The thermal conductivity values were then compared with data from the international literature. In order to consider the influence of the entire stratigraphic sequence on the thermal conductivity parameters, a geostatistical analysis of the available lithostratigraphic data was performed using the MATLAB toolbox Modalstrata, specially developed for this purpose. A comprehensive geothermal subsurface characterization of Calabria was thus obtained.  相似文献   

r.massmov: an open-source landslide model for dynamic early warning systems     

Monia Elisa Molinari  Massimiliano Cannata  Claudia Meisina 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):1153-1179

This paper illustrates the main characteristics of the newly developed landslide model r.massmov, which is based on the shallow water equations, and is capable of simulating the landslide propagation over complex topographies. The model is the result of the reimplementation of the MassMov2D into the free and open-source GRASS GIS with a series of enhancements aiming at allowing its possible integration into innovative early warning monitoring systems and specifically into Web processing services. These improvements, finalized at significantly reducing computational times, include the introduction of a new automatic stopping criterion, fluidization process algorithm, and the parallel computing. Moreover, the results of multi-spatial resolution analysis conducted on a real case study located in the southern Switzerland are presented. In particular, this analysis, composed by a sensitivity analysis and calibration process, allowed to evaluate the model capabilities in simulating the phenomenon at different input data resolution. The results illustrate that the introduced modifications lead to important reductions in the computational time (more than 90 % faster) and that, using the lower dataset resolution capable of guaranteeing reliable results, the model can be run in about 1 s instead of the 3.5 h required by previous model with not optimized dataset resolution. Aside, the results of the research are a series of new GRASS GIS modules for conducting sensitivity analysis and for calibration. The latter integrates the automated calibration program “UCODE” with any GRASS raster module. Finally, the research workflow presented in this paper illustrates a best practice in applying r.massmov in real case applications.  相似文献   

Nitrogen Removal in Vegetated and Unvegetated Drainage Ditches Impacted by Diffuse and Point Sources of Pollution     

Enrica Pierobon  Giuseppe Castaldelli  Sara Mantovani  Fabio Vincenzi  Elisa Anna Fano 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2013,41(1):24-31

Secondary drainage canals have the potential to effectively mitigate excess nitrogen loads from diffuse and point sources. In vegetated (Phragmites australis and Typha latifolia) and in unvegetated canals subjected to diffuse and point pollution, nitrogen removal was evaluated by means of simple in–out mass balance and potential uptake by macrophytes was estimated from biomass data. Results suggest an elevated control of nitrogen in vegetated ditches receiving point source of pollution (average abatement of 50% of the total N load per linear km), whereas removal processes are much less effective in unvegetated ditches. The comparison between net abatement and plant uptake, highlights the presence of other unaccounted for processes responsible for a relevant percentage of total N removal. Overall, results from this study suggest the importance of actions aiming at the appropriate management of emergent vegetation, in order to improve its direct and indirect metabolic functions and maximize nitrogen removal in impacted watersheds.  相似文献   

On integrated sediment transport modelling for flash events in mountain environments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alessio Radice  Elisa Giorgetti  Davide Brambilla  Laura Longoni  Monica Papini 《Acta Geophysica》2012,60(1):191-213

  相似文献   

Changes in Mediterranean high mountain Trichoptera communities after a 20-year period     

Marta Sáinz-Bariáin  Carmen Zamora-Muñoz  Juan J. Soler  Núria Bonada  Carmen Elisa Sáinz-Cantero  Javier Alba-Tercedor 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2016,78(4):669-682

  相似文献   

Thermal behaviour and kinetics of dehydration of gypsum in air from in situ real-time laboratory parallel-beam X-ray powder diffraction     

Paolo Ballirano  Elisa Melis 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2009,36(7):391-402

Thermal behaviour and kinetics of dehydration of gypsum in air have been investigated using in situ real-time laboratory parallel-beam X-ray powder diffraction data evaluated by the Rietveld method. Thermal expansion has been analysed from 298 to 373 K. The high-temperature limits for the cell edges and for the cell volume, calculated using the Einstein equation, are 4.29 × 10⁻⁶, 4.94 × 10⁻⁵, 2.97 × 10⁻⁵, and 8.21 × 10⁻⁵. Thermal expansion of gypsum is strongly anisotropic being larger along the b axis mainly due to the weakening of hydrogen bond. Dehydration of gypsum has been investigated in isothermal conditions within the 348–403 K range with a temperature increase of 5 K. Dehydration proceeds through the CaSO₄·2H₂O → CaSO₄·0.5H₂O → γ-CaSO₄ steps. Experimental data have been fitted with the Avrami equation to calculate the empirical activation energy of the process. No change in transformation mechanism has been observed within the analysed temperature range and the corresponding E _a is 109(12) kJ/mol.  相似文献   

The thermal behaviour of γ-CaSO<Subscript>4</Subscript>     

Paolo Ballirano  Elisa Melis 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2009,36(6):319-327

Thermal behaviour of γ-anhydrite (γ-CaSO₄, soluble anhydrite) has been investigated in situ real-time using laboratory parallel-beam X-ray powder diffraction data. Thermal expansion has been analysed from 303 to 569 K with temperature steps of 4 K. Lattice parameters and volume were fitted with a second-order polynomial to calculate thermal expansion coefficients. Thermal expansion of γ-anhydrite is anisotropic being larger along the c axis. Within the 343–383 K thermal range, γ-anhydrite has been found to partially re-hydrate to bassanite CaSO₄·0.5H₂O. At 455 K the transformation γ-CaSO₄ → β-CaSO₄, insoluble anhydrite, starts reaching completion at 653 K.  相似文献