The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550     

Simon F. B. Tett  Richard Betts  Thomas J. Crowley  Jonathan Gregory  Timothy C. Johns  Andy Jones  Timothy J. Osborn  Elisabeth Öström  David L. Roberts  Margaret J. Woodage 《Climate Dynamics》2007,28(1):3-34

A climate simulation of an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model driven with natural forcings alone (constant “pre-industrial” land-cover and well-mixed greenhouse gases, changing orbital, solar and volcanic forcing) has been carried out from 1492 to 2000. Another simulation driven with natural and anthropogenic forcings (changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, the direct and first indirect effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and land-cover) from 1750 to 2000 has also been carried out. These simulations suggest that since 1550, in the absence of anthropogenic forcings, climate would have warmed by about 0.1 K. Simulated response is not in equilibrium with the external forcings suggesting that both climate sensitivity and the rate at which the ocean takes up heat determine the magnitude of the response to forcings since 1550. In the simulation with natural forcings climate sensitivity is similar to other simulations of HadCM3 driven with CO₂ alone. Climate sensitivity increases when anthropogenic forcings are included. The natural forcing used in our experiment increases decadal–centennial time-scale and large spatial scale climate variability, relative to internal variability, as diagnosed from a control simulation. Mean conditions in the natural simulation are cooler than in our control simulation reflecting the reduction in forcing. However, over certain regions there is significant warming, relative to control, due to an increase in forest cover. Comparing the simulation driven by anthropogenic and natural forcings with the natural-only simulation suggests that anthropogenic forcings have had a significant impact on, particularly tropical, climate since the early nineteenth century. Thus the entire instrumental temperature record may be “contaminated” by anthropogenic influences. Both the hydrological cycle and cryosphere are also affected by anthropogenic forcings. Changes in tree-cover appear to be responsible for some of the local and hydrological changes as well as an increase in northern hemisphere spring snow cover.

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Simon F. B. TettEmail:

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A Plinian treatment of fallout from Hawaiian lava fountains     

Elisabeth A. Parfitt  Lionel Wilson 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1999,88(1-2)

A new model is presented which simulates the dispersal and deposition of material from a Hawaiian eruption column. The model treats the Hawaiian column as a coarse-grained Plinian column and uses a modified version of the Wilson and Walker [Wilson, L., Walker, G.P.L., 1987. Explosive volcanic eruptions: VI. Ejecta dispersal in Plinian eruptions: the control of eruption conditions and atmospheric properties. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 89, 657–679.] Plinian pyroclast dispersal model to simulate the fall out of material during a Hawaiian eruption. The model results are found to be in good agreement with independent estimates of various parameters made for the 1959 Kilauea Iki eruption of Kilauea volcano. The close agreement between the model results and these independent estimates shows that, dynamically, Hawaiian eruptions are indistinguishable from Plinian eruptions. The major differences in the styles and deposits of these two types of eruptions are accounted for by differences in the mass fluxes and gas contents of the erupting magmas and, most fundamentally, by differences in the grainsize distribution of the erupted clasts. Plume heights predicted by the model are greater than those found for previous models of Hawaiian eruptions. This is because previous models did not allow for the progressive fall out of particles from the plume and, more importantly, made no correction for the velocity disequilibrium between gas and clasts when the grainsize distribution is coarse.  相似文献   

Tectonic implications of new single zircon Pb-Pb evaporation data in the Lossogonoi and Longido ruby-districts,Mozambican metamorphic Belt of north-eastern Tanzania     

Elisabeth Le Goff  Yves Deschamps  Catherine Guerrot 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(1):36-45

Three single zircon Pb-Pb evaporation dating studies were performed on felsic orthogneisses and migmatites from the Longido and Lossogonoi ruby districts, Mozambique Belt of north-eastern Tanzania, in order to better constrain the geological setting of gemstone mineralizations. Igneous emplacement ages of protoliths ranging between 2636 and 2448 Ma document for the first time the presence of a Neoarchean to Lower Paleoproterozoic (Siderian) basement reworked in the Late Neoproterozoic Mozambique Belt of north-eastern Tanzania. This ancient crust of unknown dimension is well documented farther south, but also in south-eastern Kenya. A shearing event under high-grade amphibolite facies conditions, postdating the Pan-African metamorphic peak at 640 Ma and following nappes emplacement is demonstrated at ca. 610 Ma from metamorphic zircons of Lossogonoi district. In Lossogonoi district, ruby crystallizes during this last stage of deformation.  相似文献   

Regional‐scale investigation of the spatial distribution and origin of soluble salts in central north Queensland     

Elisabeth N. Bui  Christopher J. Moran 《水文研究》2000,14(2):237-250

A method for regional assessment of the distribution of saline outbreaks is demonstrated for a large area (68 000 km²) in north Queensland, Australia. Soil samples were used in conjunction with a digital elevation model and a map of potentially saline discharge zones to examine the landscape distribution of soluble salts in the region. The hypothesis of atmospheric accession of salt was tested for the topographically defined catchment regions feeding into each potentially saline discharge area. Most catchments showed a salt distribution consistent with this hypothesis, i.e. %TSS was large near the discharge areas and decreased rapidly with distance uphill from the discharge areas. In some catchments, however, local saline outbreaks were apparent at significant distances uphill from discharge areas. The possibility of geological sources of this salt was examined by comparing random point distributions with the location of saline points with distance downhill from geological units (excluding points near discharge zones). The distribution of some saline outbreaks was consistent with the occurrence of Cambro‐Ordovician metasediments, Devonian limestone, Upper Devonian–Lower Carboniferous volcanics, and Triassic sediments. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Amplitude,frequency and drivers of Caspian Sea lake-level variations during the Early Pleistocene and their impact on a protected wave-dominated coastline     

Elisabeth L. Jorissen  Hemmo A. Abels  Frank P. Wesselingh  Sergei Lazarev  Vusala Aghayeva  Wout Krijgsman 《Sedimentology》2020,67(1):649-676

The Caspian Sea, the largest isolated lake in the world, witnessed drastic lake-level variations during the Quaternary. This restricted basin appears very sensitive to lake-level variations, due to important variations in regional evaporation, precipitation and runoff. The amplitude, frequency and drivers of these lake-level changes are still poorly documented and understood. Studying geological records of the Caspian Sea might be the key to better comprehend the complexity of these oscillations. The Hajigabul section documents sediment deposited on the northern margin of the Kura Basin, a former embayment of the Caspian Sea. The 2035 m thick, well-exposed section was previously dated by magneto-biostratigraphic techniques and provides an excellent record of Early Pleistocene environmental, lake-level and climate changes. Within this succession, the 1050 m thick Apsheronian regional stage, between ca 2·1 Ma and 0·85 Ma, represents a particular time interval with 20 regressive sequences documented by sedimentary and palaeontological changes. Sequences are regressing from offshore to coastal, lagoonal or terrestrial settings and are bounded by abrupt flooding events. Sediment reveals a low energy, wave-dominated, reflective beach system. Wave baselines delimiting each facies association appear to be located at shallower bathymetries compared to the open ocean. Water depth estimations of the wave baselines allow reconstruction of a lake-level curve, recording oscillations of ca 40 m amplitude. Cyclostratigraphic analyses display lake-level frequency close to 41 kyr, pointing to allogenic forcing, dominated by obliquity cycles and suggesting a direct or indirect link with high-latitude climates and environments. This study provides a detailed lake-level curve for the Early Pleistocene Caspian Sea and constitutes a first step towards a better comprehension of the magnitude, occurrence and forcing mechanisms of Caspian Sea lake-level changes. Facies models developed in this study regarding sedimentary architectures of palaeocoastlines affected by repeated lake-level fluctuations may form good analogues for other (semi-)isolated basins worldwide.  相似文献   

Macrofaunal density, biomass and composition of estuarine sediments and their relationship to the river plume of the Rhone River (NW Mediterranean)     

Rachel Hermand  Chantal Salen-Picard  Elisabeth Alliot  Claude Degiovanni 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,79(3):367-376

This study investigates species community patterns and sediment relationships of benthic macrofauna off the Rhone river delta. Along a WE transect, changes in diversity, density, biomass and trophic structure were coupled with the mean extension of the river dilution plume. Species number and diversity were at a minimum off the river mouth, below the area of the minimum surface salinity. Density decreased by a factor 2 and biomass by a factor 5 from the fluvial to the marine system. These features are due to high overload of terrestrial organic matter in the river prodelta as evidenced by the carbon isotopic signature of surface sediment and by pigment content. On the basis of a non-metric MDS analysis and of Dufrêne and Legendre method (1997), groups of stations and characteristic species associated were identified. These species, mainly small capitellids, spionids, lumbrinerids and sternaspids, correspond to a successional dynamic in response to changes in sedimentation conditions, mainly in organic matter quality of the surface sediment. The succession observed in space was similar to described in macrotidal estuaries and off other deltaic systems all over the world and to that observed in time following the Rhone river severe flood events. Results suggest that organic matter quality is an important factor with regard to benthic macrofauna successions and recovery mechanisms following disturbances. The differences observed between the Rhone deltaic system and the general model of relations between shelf processes and discharge of large rivers are attributed to a more regular supply of organic material from terrestrial origin on the Rhone continental shelf.  相似文献