Debris flows are hazardous phenomena occurring at volcanoes, and monitoring them has proved as challenging as imperative in several cases. The use of seismic instruments to measure and study the physical properties of debris flows has witnessed significant progress in the last years, with the use of improved sensors, innovative methodologies and high-resolution analysis. However, the application of such studies to the practical task of providing early warnings remains limited by the significant amount of infrastructural and technological resources commonly required for their deployment. In Ecuador, debris flows at volcanoes are detected by means of seismic instruments which are usually part of broader monitoring networks, thus requiring calibration to provide quantitative information about the flows and feed early-warning systems. In the present work, a theoretical approach based on the Buckingham Π-theorem is used to determine an expression that linearly correlates the seismic signal produced by a transiting debris flow with its discharge rate, for instruments installed in different substrata and at variable distances from the drainage. The expression is experimentally tested with Acoustic Flow Monitors and Broad-band seismometers installed in the vicinity of drainages at Tungurahua and Cotopaxi volcanoes, where actual debris flows occurred in relation to eruptive activity. The experiments consist in comparing the measured peak amplitude values of the seismic signal envelopes with the estimated peak discharge rates of several events. The results confirm the validity of the theoretical expression with linear correlations observed between the seismic amplitudes and the discharge rates, thus defining calibration expressions that can be generally applied to varied environments and instruments. The seismic instruments calibrated through this methodology can provide instantaneous and reliable predictions of debris flow discharge rates within less than an order of magnitude and only requiring limited data processing and storage. Such level of prediction could help to improve early warning systems based on seismic instruments installed in locations where more developed instrumental arrays are unavailable or unpractical.
We identify mechanisms controlling the distribution of methane convection and large-scale circulation in a simplified, axisymmetric model atmosphere of Titan forced by gray radiation and moist (methane) convection. The large-scale overturning circulation, or Hadley cell, is global in latitudinal extent and provides fundamental control of precipitation and tropospheric winds. The precipitating, large-scale updraft regularly oscillates in latitude with seasons. The distance of greatest poleward excursion of the Hadley cell updraft is set by the mass of the convective layer of the atmosphere; convection efficiently communicates seasonal warming of the surface through the cold and dense lower atmosphere, increasing the heat capacity of the system. The presence of deep, precipitating convection introduces three effects relative to the case with no methane latent heating: (1) convection is narrowed and enhanced in the large-scale updraft of the Hadley cell; (2) the latitudinal amplitude of Hadley cell updraft oscillations is decreased; and (3) a time lag is introduced. These effects are observable in the location and timing of convective methane clouds in Titan’s atmosphere as a function of season. A comparison of simulations over a range of convective regimes with available observations suggest methane thermodynamic-dynamic feedback is important in the Titan climate. 相似文献
The limits of predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in coupled models are investigated based on retrospective forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) made with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system (CFS). The influence of initial uncertainties and model errors associated with coupled ENSO dynamics on forecast error growth are discussed. The total forecast error has maximum values in the equatorial Pacific and its growth is a strong function of season irrespective of lead time. The largest growth of systematic error of SST occurs mainly over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and near the southeastern coast of the Americas associated with ENSO events. After subtracting the systematic error, the root-mean-square error of the retrospective forecast SST anomaly also shows a clear seasonal dependency associated with what is called spring barrier. The predictability with respect to ENSO phase shows that the phase locking of ENSO to the mean annual cycle has an influence on the seasonal dependence of skill, since the growth phase of ENSO events is more predictable than the decay phase. The overall characteristics of predictability in the coupled system are assessed by comparing the forecast error growth and the error growth between two model forecasts whose initial conditions are 1 month apart. For the ensemble mean, there is fast growth of error associated with initial uncertainties, becoming saturated within 2 months. The subsequent error growth follows the slow coupled mode related the model’s incorrect ENSO dynamics. As a result, the Lorenz curve of the ensemble mean NINO3 index does not grow, because the systematic error is identical to the same target month. In contrast, the errors of individual members grow as fast as forecast error due to the large instability of the coupled system. Because the model errors are so systematic, their influence on the forecast skill is investigated by analyzing the erroneous features in a long simulation. For the ENSO forecasts in CFS, a constant phase shift with respect to lead month is clear, using monthly forecast composite data. This feature is related to the typical ENSO behavior produced by the model that, unlike the observations, has a long life cycle with a JJA peak. Therefore, the systematic errors in the long run are reflected in the forecast skill as a major factor limiting predictability after the impact of initial uncertainties fades out. 相似文献
The aim of this study is to investigate the nature of the solutions and the temperature during the bentonite formation by using δ18O and δ2H values and the relationship between chemical and isotopic composition of smectites from Cabo de Gata region. Therefore, 36 bentonite samples had been selected. For analyses the <2 μm fraction were separated. Most of the samples contain smectite above 90 wt%. The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of the analysed smectites is close to the “montmorillonite line”. However, from isotopic composition two types of bentonite can be distinguished. The Sierra de Gata (SG) and Serrata de Nijar (SN) types show δ18O and δ2H values above and below this line, respectively. Temperatures obtained from geothermometer equation are similar to the temperatures values obtained from the equation of Savin and Lee (1988). Estimated formation temperatures of SG type are 25 and 49 °C higher compared to those of the SN type (6 and 25 °C).Correlations between structural cations versus isotopic composition show no statistical significance concerning all samples. However, separating the samples of SG (Sierra de Gata) from SN (Serrata of Nijar) a statistical significance for the individual areas is obtained. In both cases the effect is similar for 18O and for 2H. This could be due to the different composition of the solutions forming these bentonites. 相似文献
A comparative analysis of the existing hydrogeological and management information from 15 coastal aquifers in South America was performed in order to obtain insight into common features of the sub-continent coastal zones. Some knowledge from other areas has been incorporated. There is a very variable degree of knowledge and management practice, ranging from almost no data and no action (the most common case), to sound conceptual models about aquifer behaviour and comprehensive management actions such as relocation of abstractions, pumping brackish groundwater, and aquifer vulnerability mapping. Some common features are: intensive groundwater exploitation; lack of characterization studies to support resource planning and management; lack of monitoring networks; and the need for raising awareness within society and its involvement in resource planning and management action programmes. Quality and quantity problems arising in heavily populated areas associated with coastal aquifers in South America point to unsustainable groundwater development. The sustainable use of those aquifers must rely on adequate evaluation of aquifer characteristics and monitoring. 相似文献
Magnetic and non-magnetic mineral analyses were conducted on a lacustrine sequence from Lago Verde in the tropical coast along the Gulf of Mexico that covers the last 2000 years. The site witnessed the transformation of the environment since the early Olmec societies until forest clearance in the last century. Through these analyses we investigated the processes that affected the magnetic mineralogy in order to construct a model of past environmental changes, and compare this model with the archeological record and inferred climatic changes in the northern hemisphere of tropical America. Volcanic activity has played a major influence on sediment magnetic properties, as a purveyor of Ti-magnetites/Ti-maghemites, and as a factor of instability in the environment. Anoxic reductive conditions are evident in most of Lago Verde's sedimentary record.
Direct observations of magnetic minerals and ratios of geochemical (Fe, Ti), and ferrimagnetic (χf) and paramagnetic (χp) susceptibility (χ) data, are used as parameters for magnetite dissolution (χp/χ, Fe/χf), and precipitation (χf/Ti) of magnetic minerals. Intense volcanic activity and anoxia are recorded before A.D. 20, leading to the formation of framboidal pyrite. Increased erosion, higher evaporation rates, lower lake levels, anoxia and reductive diagenesis in non-sulphidic conditions are inferred for laminated sediments between A.D. 20–850. This deposit matches the period of historical crisis and multiyear droughts that contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization. Dissolution of magnetite, a high organic content and framboidal pyrite point to anoxic, sulphidic conditions and higher lake levels after A.D. 850. Higher lake levels in Lago Verde broadly coincide with the increased precipitation documented during the Medieval Warm Period (A.D. 950–1350) in the northern tropical and subtropical regions of the American continent. For the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1400–1800), the relatively moist conditions inferred are in concordance with the glacial advances recorded in central Mexico. Higher erosion rates reflect destruction of the rainforest over the last 40 years. 相似文献
The Aptian-Albian 'Scisti a Fucoidi' varicoloured pelagic sediments in central Italy, show a 'couplet' alternation of carbonate-rich/carbonate-poor layers, which are interpreted as the sedimentary expression of precession (frequency 19–23 kyr). Carbonate content, chromatic variation, and planktonic foraminiferal abundance were analysed at a 1-cm spacing for a 10-m interval of the Piobbico core, specifically drilled through this formation. Spectral analysis of these parameters shows a prominent signal equated to the c . 100 kyr cycle of orbital eccentricity at a sedimentation rate of 5 mm kyr−1. The coherency of the spectral response of each parameter suggests that a single mechanism controlled the whole sedimentary record. Detailed study of planktonic foraminiferal distribution of the same section at 1-mm scale resolves the Milankovitch frequencies of 41 kyr and 18 to 23 kyr, equated with the obliquity and precessional cycles. But foraminiferal abundance is not in phase with carbonate content, which was largely controlled by calcareous nannofossils, but peaked at intermediate carbonate values. The proposed model for explaining the discrepancy at the precessional level is that foraminifera thrived at intermediate values of the precession index, when the environment was only moderately fertile but stable, while during highs of the precession index, mixing of the water column increased fertility and caused calcareous nannofossil blooms and restriction of planktonic foraminifera to few and tolerant species. The resulting bimodality of foraminiferal abundance per precessional cycle appears to be recorded in the spectrum by peaks at the 11 and 14 kyr levels. Cross correlation of foraminiferal abundances with the calcium carbonate curve over 1–2 Myr intervals produces discrepant results (apparent phase lags) which we attribute to differences in the response to the fundamental eccentricity cycles. 相似文献
