Linear and non-linear T–S models for the eastern North Atlantic from Argo data: Role of surface salinity observations     

Joaquim Ballabrera-Poy  Baptiste Mourre  Emilio Garcia-Ladona  Antonio Turiel  Jordi Font 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(10):1605-1614

Linear and non-linear empirical models for salinity (S) are estimated from the Argo temperature (T) and salinity (delayed) data. This study focuses on the reconstruction of salinity in the upper 1200 m of the eastern North Atlantic Ocean, a region characterized by the presence of many different water masses. While previous studies have found it necessary to split this region by boxes to fit different polynomial models in each box, a unique model valid for the entire region is fitted here. Argo profiles are randomly distributed on two sets: one for fitting the models and one for testing them. Non-linear regressions are built using neural networks with a single hidden layer and the fitting data set is further divided into two subsets: one for adjusting the coefficients (training data) and one for early stopping of the fitting (validation data). Our results indicate that linear regressions perform better than the climatologic T–S relationship, but that non-linear regressions perform better than the linear ones. Non-linear training using a three-data subsets strategy successfully prevents overfitting even when networks with 90 neurons in the hidden layer are being trained. While the presence of local minima may complicate the generalization of non-linear models to new data, network committees (created by training the same network from different random initial weights) are shown to better reproduce the test data. Several predictors are tested, and the results show that geographical, or surface, information does provide significant information. These results highlight the potential applications of future satellite missions measuring sea-surface salinity to reconstruct, when combined with temperature profiles, vertical salinity profiles.  相似文献   

Solar diameter measurements at São Paulo Observatory     

M. Emilio  N. V. Leister 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,361(3):1005-1011

In this work we describe solar radius measurements made from 1972 with the São Paulo astrolabe. We find values of  959.52 ± 0.03 arcsec  for the visual data and  959.61 ± 0.05 arcsec  for the CCD data using a modified data acquisition system. We compare our results with other astrolabe measurements and with SOHO –MDI. Observations of the solar radius show contradictory results when we try to correlate changes in the diameter with the solar cycle. Our series is not correlated with the solar cycle but it shows a period of  13.4 ± 2.2 yr  . We have also compared our time series with other long-term measurements of solar radius along solar cycle 21 and analysed our measurements as a function of heliographic latitude. We do not find a significant solar oblateness.  相似文献   

Seismic analysis and distribution of a bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) in the Chilean margin offshore of Valdivia (40° S)     

Cristián Rodrigo  Emilio Vera  Antonio González-Fernández 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2009,27(1):1-10

Multi-channel seismic (MCS) reflection data recorded offshore from Valdivia (40° S), in the Chilean margin, were processed to obtain a seismic image to establish structural characteristics and relate them to the presence of the bottom-simulating reflector (BSR). Seismic structure velocity of the BSR was determined using 1-D forward modeling. Recorded seismograms for two representative common mid-point (CMP) gathers were compared with synthetics, using different physical parameters to fit the waveforms. Our results confirm the presence of gas hydrates above the BSR. The BSR spatial continuity appears to be either interrupted or irregular due to the presence of faults. Tectonic movements can change the gas hydrate stability zone and consequently the BSR disappears or becomes weaker. Structural and topographic factors, differences in concentration, vertical distribution characteristics and internal structure of gas hydrates can influence BSR amplitude behavior. Variability in the concentration, volume, and extra supply of free gas coming from faults could be the main factors in the change of BSR amplitudes. The inclusion of the attenuation factor in the modeling supports the existence of free gas below the BSR. It is possible that the free gas below the BSR is distributed in bubbles or “bags”.  相似文献   

Aquifer overexploitation: what does it mean?   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Emilio Custodio 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(2):254-277

Groundwater overexploitation and aquifer overexploitation are terms that are becoming common in water-resources management. Hydrologists, managers and journalists use them when talking about stressed aquifers or some groundwater conflict. Overexploitation may be defined as the situation in which, for some years, average aquifer abstraction rate is greater than, or close to the average recharge rate. But rate and extent of recharge areas are often very uncertain. Besides, they may be modified by human activities and aquifer development. In practice, however, an aquifer is often considered as overexploited when some persistent negative results of aquifer development are felt or perceived, such as a continuous water-level drawdown, progressive water-quality deterioration, increase of abstraction cost, or ecological damage. But negative results do not necessarily imply that abstraction is greater than recharge. They may be simply due to well interferences and the long transient period that follow changes in the aquifer water balance. Groundwater storage is depleted to some extent during the transient period after abstraction is increased. Its duration depends on aquifer size, specific storage and permeability. Which level of "aquifer overexploitation" is advisable or bearable, depends on the detailed and updated consideration of aquifer-development effects and the measures implemented for correction. This should not be the result of applying general rules based on some indirect data. Monitoring, sound aquifer knowledge, and calculation or modelling of behaviour are needed in the framework of a set of objectives and policies. They should be established by a management institution, with the involvement of groundwater stakeholders, and take into account the environmental and social constraints. Aquifer overexploitation, which often is perceived to be associated with something ethically bad, is not necessarily detrimental if it is not permanent. It may be a step towards sustainable development. Actually, the term aquifer overexploitation is mostly a qualifier that intends to point to a concern about the evolution of the aquifer-flow system in some specific, restricted points of view, but without a precise hydrodynamic meaning. Implementing groundwater management and protection measures needs quantitative appraisal of aquifer evolution and effects based on detailed multidisciplinary studies, which have to be supported by reliable data. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

Extreme Climatic Events in Dendroclimatic Reconstructions from Spain     

Emilio Manrique  Angel Fernandez-Cancio 《Climatic change》2000,44(1-2):123-138

The analysis of series of climatic values for almost a millennium, obtained by dendroclimatic methods, makes evident the existence of values that are remarkably greater or smaller than the rest. The criterion to identify this type of values has been the distance to the mean of the climatic series, in units of the standard deviation: out-of-range values are those that differ from the mean in more than four standard deviations. The study of these values gives an original perspective of the climatic past in Spain, including the outstanding oscillations of the Little Ice Age (LIA). The unusual climatic conditions of the last decades are also detected using this method.  相似文献   

Estimating net radiation at surface using artificial neural networks: a new approach     

Antonio Geraldo Ferreira  Emilio Soria-Olivas  Antonio Jos�� Serrano L��pez  Ernesto Lopez-Baeza 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(1-2):263-279

This study describes the results of artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate net radiation (R _n), at surface. Three ANN models were developed based on meteorological data such as wind velocity and direction, surface and air temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. A comparison has been made between the R _n estimates provided by the neural models and two linear models (LM) that need solar incoming shortwave radiation measurements as input parameter. Both ANN and LM results were tested against in situ measured R _n. For the LM ones, the estimations showed a root mean square error (RMSE) between 34.10 and 39.48?W?m^?2 and correlation coefficient (R ²) between 0.96 and 0.97 considering both the developing and the testing phases of calculations. The estimates obtained by the ANN models showed RMSEs between 6.54 and 48.75?W?m^?2 and R ² between 0.92 and 0.98 considering both the training and the testing phases. The ANN estimates are shown to be similar or even better, in some cases, than those given by the LMs. According to the authors?? knowledge, the use of ANNs to estimate R _n has not been discussed earlier, and based on the results obtained, it represents a formidable potential tool for R _n prediction using commonly measured meteorological parameters.  相似文献   

Diffuse and concentrated recharge evaluation using physical and tracer techniques: results from a semiarid carbonate massif aquifer in southeastern Spain   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Francisco J. Alcalá  Yolanda Cantón  Sergio Contreras  Ana Were  Penélope Serrano-Ortiz  Juan Puigdefábregas  Albert Solé-Benet  Emilio Custodio  Francisco Domingo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(3):541-557

In the high-permeability, semiarid carbonate aquifer in the Sierra de Gádor Mountains (southeastern Spain), some local springs draining shallow perched aquifers were of assistance in assessing applicability of the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) for quantifying total yearly recharge (R _T) by rainfall. Two contrasting hydrological years (October through September) were selected to evaluate the influence of climate on recharge: the average rainfall year 2003–2004, and the unusually dry 2004–2005. Results at small catchment scale were calibrated with estimated daily stand-scale R _T obtained by means of a soil water balance (SWB) of rainfall, using the actual evapotranspiration measured by the eddy covariance (EC) technique. R _T ranged from 0.35 to 0.40 of rainfall in the year, with less than a 5% difference between the CMB and SWB methods in 2003–2004. R _T varied from less than 0.05 of rainfall at mid-elevation to 0.20 at high elevation in 2004–2005, with a similar difference between the methods. Diffuse recharge (R _D) by rainfall was quantified from daily soil water content field data to split R _T into R _D and the expected concentrated recharge (R _C) at catchment scale in both hydrological years. R _D was 0.16 of rainfall in 2003–2004 and 0.01 in 2004–2005. Under common 1- to 3-day rainfall events, the hydraulic effect of R _D is delayed from 1 day to 1 week, while R _C is not delayed. This study shows that the CMB method is a suitable tool for yearly values complementing and extending the more widely used SWB in ungauged mountain carbonate aquifers with negligible runoff. The slight difference between R _T rates at small catchment and stand scales enables results to be validated and provides new estimates to parameterize R _T with rainfall depth after checking the weight of diffuse and concentrated mechanisms on R _T during moderate rainfall periods and episodes of marked climatic aridity.  相似文献   

The western Durkan Complex (Makran Accretionary Prism,SE Iran): A Late Cretaceous tectonically disrupted seamounts chain and its role in controlling deformation style     

Edoardo Barbero  Luca Pandolfi  Morteza Delavari  Asghar Dolati  Emilio Saccani  Rita Catanzariti  Valeria Luciani  Marco Chiari  Michele Marroni 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(3):101106

The Durkan Complex is a key tectonic element of the Makran accretionary prism (SE Iran) and it has been interpreted as representing a continental margin succession. We present here a multidisciplinary study of the western Durkan Complex, which is based on new geological, stratigraphic, biostratigraphic data, as well as geochemical data of the volcanic and meta-volcanic rocks forming this complex. Our data show that this complex consists of distinct tectonic slices showing both non-metamorphic and very low-grade metamorphic deformed successions. Stratigraphic and biostratigraphic data allow us to recognize three types of successions. Type-I is composed by a Coniacian – early Campanian pelagic succession with intercalation of pillow lavas and minor volcaniclastic rocks. Type-II succession includes a volcanic sequence passing to a volcano-sedimentary sequence with Cenomanian pelagic limestones, followed by a hemipelagic sequence. This succession is characterized by abundant mass-transport deposits. Type-III succession includes volcanic and volcano-sedimentary sequences, which are stratigraphically covered by a Cenomanian platform succession. The latter is locally followed by a hemipelagic sequence. The volcanic rocks in the different successions show alkaline geochemical affinity, suggesting an origin from an oceanic within-plate setting. Our new results indicate that the western Durkan Complex represents fragments of seamounts tectonically incorporated in the Makran accretionary wedge during the latest Late Cretaceous–Paleocene. We propose that incorporation of seamounts in the frontal prism caused a shortening of the whole convergent margin and possibly contributed to controlling the deformation style in the Makran Accretionary Wedge during Late Cretaceous–Paleocene times.  相似文献   

Celebrating 50 years of SWIMs (Salt Water Intrusion Meetings)     

Vincent E. A. Post  Gualbert Oude Essink  Adam Szymkiewicz  Mark Bakker  Georg Houben  Emilio Custodio  Clifford Voss 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(6):1767-1770

The Salt Water Intrusion Meetings, or SWIMs, are a series of meetings that focus on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers and other salinisation processes. 2018 marks the 50th year of the SWIM and the 25th biennial meeting. The SWIM proceedings record half a century of research progress on site characterisation, geophysical and geochemical techniques, variable-density flow, modelling, and water management. The SWIM is positioning itself to remain a viable platform for discussing the coastal aquifer management challenges of the next 50 years.  相似文献   

The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths   总被引：39，自引：0，他引：39  

Eric F. Lambin  B. L. Turner  Helmut J. Geist  Samuel B. Agbola  Arild Angelsen  John W. Bruce  Oliver T. Coomes  Rodolfo Dirzo  Günther Fischer  Carl Folke  P. S. George  Katherine Homewood  Jacques Imbernon  Rik Leemans  Xiubin Li  Emilio F. Moran  Michael Mortimore  P. S. Ramakrishnan  John F. Richards  Helle Sknes  Will Steffen  Glenn D. Stone  Uno Svedin  Tom A. Veldkamp  Coleen Vogel  Jianchu Xu 《Global Environmental Change》2001,11(4)

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples’ responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and constraints for new land uses are created by local as well as national markets and policies. Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change, as they amplify or attenuate local factors.  相似文献