Using a rainfall stochastic generator to detect trends in extreme rainfall   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Philippe Cantet  Jean-No?l Bacro  Patrick Arnaud 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(3):429-441

An original approach is proposed to estimate the impacts of climate change on extreme events using an hourly rainfall stochastic generator. The considered generator relies on three parameters. These parameters are estimated by average, not by extreme, values of daily climatic characteristics. Since climate changes should result in parameters instability in time, the paper focuses on testing the presence of linear trends in the generator parameters. Maximum likelihood tests are used under a Poisson–Pareto-Peak-Over-Threshold model. A general regionalization procedure is also proposed which offers the possibility to work on both local and regional scales. From the daily information of 139 rain gauge stations between 1960 and 2003, changes in heavy precipitations in France and their impacts on quantile predictions are investigated. It appears that significant changes occur mainly between December and May for the rainfall occurrence which increased during the four last decades, except in the Mediterranean area. Using the trend estimates, one can deduced that these changes, up to now, do not affect quantile estimations.  相似文献   

Orbital timing of the Indian,East Asian and African boreal monsoons and the concept of a ‘global monsoon’   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Thibaut Caley  Bruno Malaizé  Marie Revel  Emmanuelle Ducassou  Karine Wainer  Mohamed Ibrahim  Dina Shoeaib  Sébastien Migeon  Vincent Marieu 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(25-26):3705-3715

Our understanding of monsoon circulation timing’s at the orbital scale is currently a matter of debate. Here, we compare previous and recently published results of Indian, East Asian, West African and East African monsoon variability. We note different timings between the East African, West African, Indian and East-Asian monsoon systems for the most recent 45 ka, where the age models are constrained by AMS dating. On this basis, we construct different orbital forcing “reference curves” and apply them to the 200 ka time period for the different monsoon systems. Our results indicate that the ‘global monsoon’ concept at the orbital scale is a misnomer. We find real regional differences in the timing of the monsoon response to orbital forcing and differences in the weight of precession and obliquity in the monsoon records. This work highlights the necessity of studies aimed at understanding the underlying physics of these regional response patterns. This is crucial to a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and improved climate model simulations and comparisons with proxy data.  相似文献   

Petrology and Ar-Ar dating of granulites from the Galicia Bank (Spain): African craton relics in Western Europe     

Véronique Gardien  Nicolas Arnaud  Laurent Desmurs 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(2-3):103-117

Abstract

Intermediate orthogranulites were collected on the western flank of the Galicia bank during the Galinaute II cruise in 1995. The petrography of these rocks reveals two types of granulites. The first type is hydrous granulites with K-feldspar + plagioclase + quartz + orthopyroxene + hornblende + garnet + biotite + opaque + zircon + apatite assemblage. Both hornblende and orthopyroxene define a weak foliation plane. A late deformation event is expressed by some fractures cross-cutting the foliation. The second is anhydrous granulites with K-feldspar + plagioclase + quartz + orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + opaque + zircon + apatite assemblage. The rocks display a granoblastic texture and are affected by brittle deformation as testified by the development of numerous microfractures. The P-T conditions (7 ± 1 Kbar, 750 ± 50 °C) calculated from two representative samples demonstrate that the rocks equilibrated under granulite facies conditions. Ar-Ar dating gives Precambrian ages ranging between ca. 2500–2000 Ma for the amphibole from the hydrous granulite and 1600–1500 Ma for the core of the K-feldspar from the anhydrous and hydrous granulites. A younger age of 900 Ma is obtained from the recrystallized rims of the K-feldspar from the two samples. These data indicate that the granulitic rocks in the Galicia Bank had already been exhumed and cooled below ca. 140–400 °C (blocking T° for K-feldspar) in Precambrian times (900 Ma). Given the very well preserved granulitic minerals assemblage of the rocks, the granulites behaved as competent and metastable boudins during their exhumation. The granulitic samples were previously interpreted as fragments of the lower continental crust sampled by the main detachment fault during Cretaceous rifting, but they were part of an upper continental crust from the Precambrian. Geochronological data and petrological assemblages suggest that the granulite blocks in the Galicia Bank probably were derived from the North Armorican Domain (northern part of France) where a Precambrian terrain outcrops. The opening of the Bay of Biscay could be responsible for the scattering of the Precambrian terrain and may explain the presence of the granulitic blocks on both sides of the Bay of Biscay. During the subduction of Europe below the Iberian peninsula the granulite blocks were transported southward and incorporated into a Cretaceous conglomerate forming the accrecionary prism on the Northern Iberia Margin. The granulite facies blocks found on the Galicia Bank represent another example of Gondwanian relics supporting the idea that the West European plate belonged to the West African craton during the Proterozoic. © 2000 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS  相似文献   

Using Mg Isotopes to Trace Cyanobacterially Mediated Magnesium Carbonate Precipitation in Alkaline Lakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Liudmila S. Shirokova  Vasileios Mavromatis  Irina A. Bundeleva  Oleg S. Pokrovsky  Pascale B��n��zeth  Emmanuelle G��rard  Christopher R. Pearce  Eric H. Oelkers 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2013,19(1):1-24

This study assesses the potential use of Mg isotopes to trace Mg carbonate precipitation in natural waters. Salda Lake (SW Turkey) was chosen for this study because it is one of the few modern environments where hydrous Mg carbonates are the dominant precipitating minerals. Stromatolites, consisting mainly of hydromagnesite, are abundant in this lake. The Mg isotope composition of incoming streams, groundwaters, lake waters, stromatolites, and hydromagnesite-rich sediments were measured. Because Salda Lake is located in a closed basin, mass balance requires that the Mg isotopic offset between Lake Salda water and precipitated hydromagnesite be comparable to the corresponding offset between Salda Lake and its water inputs. This is consistent with observations; a ??²⁶Mg offset of 0.8?C1.4??? is observed between Salda Lake water and it is the incoming streams and groundwaters, and precipitated hydromagnesite has a ??²⁶Mg 0.9?C1.1??? more negative than its corresponding fluid phase. This isotopic offset also matches closely that measured in the laboratory during both biotic and abiotic hydrous Mg carbonate precipitation by cyanobacteria (Mavromatis, V., Pearce, C., Shirokova, L. S., Bundeleva, I. A., Pokrovsky, O. S., Benezeth, P. and Oelkers, E.H.: Magnesium isotope fractionation during inorganic and cyanobacteria-induced hydrous magnesium carbonate precipitation, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 2012a. 76, 161?C174). Batch reactor experiments performed in the presence of Salda Lake cyanobacteria and stromatolites resulted in the precipitation of dypingite (Mg₅(CO₃)₄(OH)₂·5(H₂O)) and hydromagnesite (Mg₅(CO₃)₄(OH)₂·4H₂O) with morphological features similar to those of natural samples. Concurrent abiotic control experiments did not exhibit carbonate precipitation demonstrating the critical role of cyanobacteria in the precipitation process.  相似文献   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987113000327   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Arnaud Pecher  Nicholas Arndt  Alexander Jean  Arthur Bauville  Clement Ganino  Charlotte Athurion 《地学前缘(英文版)》2013,4(5):571-581

The Panzhihua intrusion in southwest China is part of the Emeishan large igneous province and host of a large Fe-Ti-V ore deposit.In previous interpretations it was considered to be a layered,differentiated sill with the ore deposits at its base.New structural and petrological data suggest instead that the intrusion has an open S-shape,with two near-concordant segments joined by a discordant dyke-like segment. During emplacement of the main intrusion,multiple generations of mafic dykes invaded carbonate wall rocks,producing a large contact aureole.In the central segment,magmatic layering is oriented oblique to the walls of the intrusion.This layering cannot have formed by crystal settling or in-situ growth on the floor of the intrusion;instead we propose that it resulted from inward solidification of multiple,individually operating,convection cells.Ore formation was triggered by interaction of magma with carbonate wall rocks.  相似文献   

La méthode SHYREG débit—application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine     

Yoann Aubert  Patrick Arnaud  Pierre Ribstein  Jean-Alain Fine 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):993-1005

Résumé

La méthode SHYREG est une approche développée pour la connaissance régionale de l’aléa pluvial (SHYREG pluie) et hydrologique (SHYREG débit) en tout point du territoire français. Elle est basée sur le couplage d’un générateur stochastique de pluie horaire et d’un modèle hydrologique. Cet article présente les résultats de la mise en ?uvre de la méthode sur 1605 bassins versants répartis sur la France métropolitaine. Sur les fréquences courantes (c.à.d. périodes de retour inférieures à 10 ans), la méthode restitue correctement les quantiles de débit de crue ajustés à une loi statistique sur les observations (loi GEV, selon le critère de Nash-Sutcliffe). Plusieurs critères sont utilisés pour valider l’extrapolation des débits à des fréquences extrêmes: (a) en la confrontant à de longues chroniques de débits observés, (b) en analysant dans le modèle hydrologique la saturation du réservoir de production synonyme de comportement asymptotique avec les pluies, et (c) en étudiant la stabilité de la méthode à travers les critères statistiques.