Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysis     

Arnaud Mignan  Laurentiu Danciu  Domenico Giardini 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):149-172

Earthquakes cluster in space and time resulting in nonlinear damage effects. We compute earthquake interactions using the Coulomb stress transfer theory and dynamic vulnerability from the concept of ductility capacity reduction. We combine both processes in the generic multi-risk framework where risk scenarios are simulated using a variant of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We apply the proposed approach to the thrust fault system of northern Italy, considering earthquakes with characteristic magnitudes in the range ~[6, 6.5], different levels of tectonic loading \(\dot{\tau }\) = {10^?4, 10^?3, 10^?2} bar/year and a generic stock of fictitious low-rise buildings with different ductility capacities μ _Δ = {2, 4, 6}. We describe the process’ stochasticity by non-stationary Poisson earthquake probabilities and by binomial damage state probabilities. We find that earthquake clustering yields a tail fattening of the seismic risk curve, the effect of which is amplified by damage-dependent fragility due to clustering. The impact of clustering alone is in average more important than dynamic vulnerability, the spatial extent of the former phenomenon being greater than of the latter one.  相似文献   

Global optimization of core station networks for space geodesy: application to the referencing of the SLR EOP with respect to ITRF     

David Coulot  Arnaud Pollet  Xavier Collilieux  Philippe Berio 《Journal of Geodesy》2010,84(1):31-50

We apply global optimization in order to optimize the referencing (and consequently the stability) of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) with respect to ITRF2005. These EOP are derived at a daily sampling from SLR data, simultaneously with weekly station positions. The EOP referencing is carried out with minimum constraints applied weekly to the three rotations and over core station networks. Our approach is based on a multi objective genetic algorithm, a particular stochastic global optimization method, the reference system effects being the objectives to minimize. We thus use rigorous criteria for the optimal weekly core station selection. The results evidence an improvement of 10% of the stability for Polar Motion (PM) series in comparison to the results obtained with the network specially designed for EOP referencing by the Analysis Working Group of the International Laser Ranging Service. This improvement of nearly 25 μas represents 50% of the current precision of the IERS 05 C04 PM reference series. We also test the possibility of averaging the weekly networks provided by our algorithm (the Genetically Modified Networks—GMN) over the whole time period. Although the dynamical nature of the GMN is clearly a key point of their success, we can derive such a global mean core network, which could be useful for practical applications regarding EOP referencing. Using this latter core network moreover provides more stable EOP series than the conventional network does.  相似文献   

Analogue models of the effect of long-term basement fault movement on volcanic edifices     

Luke Wooller  Benjamin van Wyk de Vries  Emmanuelle Cecchi  Hazel Rymer 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(10):1111-1131

Long-term fault movement under volcanoes can control the edifice structure and can generate collapse events. To study faulting effects, we explore a wide range of fault geometries and motions, from normal, through vertical to reverse and dip-slip to strike-slip, using simple analogue models. We explore the effect of cumulative sub-volcanic fault motions and find that there is a strong influence on the structural evolution and potential instability of volcanoes. The variety of fault types and geometries are tested with realistically scaled displacements, demonstrating a general tendency to produce regions of instability parallel to fault strike, whatever the fault motion. Where there is oblique-slip faulting, the instability is always on the downthrown side and usually in the volcano flank sector facing the strike-slip sense of motion. Different positions of the fault beneath the volcano change the location, type and magnitude of the instability produced. For example, the further the fault is from the central axis, the larger the destabilised sector. Also, with greater fault offset from the central axis larger unstable volumes are generated. Such failures are normal to fault strike. Using simple geometric dimensionless numbers, such as the fault dip, degree of oblique motion (angle of obliquity), and the fault position, we graphically display the geometry of structures produced. The models are applied to volcanoes with known underlying faults, and we demonstrate the importance of these faults in determining volcanic structures and slope instability. Using the knowledge of fault patterns gained from these experiments, geological mapping on volcanoes can locate fault influence and unstable zones, and hence monitoring of unstable flanks could be carried out to determine the actual response to faulting in specific cases.  相似文献   

Variations in the response of the dune coast of northern France to major storms as a function of available beach sediment volume          下载免费PDF全文

Adrien Crapoulet  Arnaud Héquette  Denis Marin  Franck Levoy  Patrice Bretel 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(11):1603-1622

A series of airborne topographic LiDAR data were obtained from May 2008 to January 2014 over two coastal sites of northern France (Bay of Wissant and east of Dunkirk). These data were used with wind and tide gauge measurements to assess the impacts of storms on beaches and coastal dunes, and particularly of the series of major storms that hit western Europe during the fall and early winter of 2013. Our results show a high variability in shoreline response from one site to the other, but also within each coastal site. Coastal dune erosion and shoreline retreat occurred at both sites, particularly on the coast of the Bay of Wissant where shoreline retreat up to about 40 m was measured. However, stability or even shoreline advance were also observed despite the occurrence of an extreme water level with a return period >100 years during the storm Xaver in early December 2013. Comparison of shoreline change with variations of coastal dune and upper beach volumes revealed only weak relationships. Our results nevertheless showed that shoreline behavior seems to strongly depend on the initial sediment volume on the upper beach before the occurrence of the storms. According to our measurements, an upper beach volume of about 30 m³ m^?1 between the dune toe and the mean high water level is sufficient at these sites to protect the coastal dunes from storm waves associated with high water levels with return periods >10 years. The identification of such thresholds in terms of upper beach width or sediment volume may represent valuable information for improving the management of shoreline change by providing an estimate of the minimum quantity of sand on the upper beach necessary to ensure shoreline stability in this region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The effect of landform variation on vegetation patterning and related sediment dynamics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Jantiene E.M. Baartman  Arnaud J.A.M. Temme  Patricia M. Saco 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(10):2121-2135

Semi‐arid ecosystems are often spatially self‐organized in typical patterns of vegetation bands with high plant cover interspersed with bare soil areas, also known as ‘tiger bush’. In modelling studies, most often, straight planar slopes were used to analyse vegetation patterning. The effect of slope steepness has been investigated widely, and some studies investigated the effects of microtopography and hillslope orientation. However, at the larger catchment scale, the overall form of the landscape may affect vegetation patterning and these more complex landscapes are much more prevalent than straight slopes. Hence, our objective was to determine the effect of landform variation on vegetation patterning and sediment dynamics. We linked two well‐established models that simulate (a) plant growth, death and dispersal of vegetation, and (b) erosion and sedimentation dynamics. The model was tested on a straight planar hillslope and then applied to (i) a set of simple synthetic topographies with varying curvature and (ii) three more complex, real‐world landscapes of distinct morphology. Results show banded vegetation patterning on all synthetic topographies, always perpendicular to the slope gradient. Interestingly, we also found that movement of bands – a debated phenomenon – seems to be dependent on curvature. Vegetation banding was simulated on the slopes of the alluvial fan and along the valley slopes of the dissected and rolling landscapes. In all landscapes, local valleys developed a full vegetation cover induced by water concentration, which is consistent with observations worldwide. Finally, banded vegetation patterns were found to reduce erosion significantly as compared to other vegetation configurations. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Intensity predictive attenuation models calibrated in Mw for metropolitan France     

David Baumont  Kévin Manchuel  Paola Traversa  Christophe Durouchoux  Emmanuelle Nayman  Gabriele Ameri 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2285-2310

In the framework of the SIGMA project, a study was launched to develop a parametric earthquake catalog for the historical period, covering the metropolitan territory and calibrated in Mw. A set of candidate calibration events was selected corresponding to earthquakes felt over a part of the French metropolitan territory, which are fairly well documented both in terms of macroseismic intensity distributions (SisFrance BRGM-EDF-IRSN) and magnitude estimates. The detailed analysis of the macroseismic data led us to retain only 30 events out of 65 with Mw ranging from 3.6 to 5.8. In order to supplement the dataset with data from larger magnitude events, Italian earthquakes were also considered (11 events posterior to 1900 with Mw?≥?6.0 out of 15 in total), using both the DBMI11 macroseismic database (Locati et al. in Seismol Resour Lett 85(3):727–734, 2014) and the parametric information from the CPTI11 (Rovida et al. in CPTI11, la versione 2011 del Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica et Vulcanologia, Milano, Bologna, 2011.  https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti11). To avoid introducing bias related to the differences in terms of intensity scales (MSK vs. MCS), only intensities smaller than or equal to VII were considered (Traversa et al. in On the use of cross-border macroseismic data to improve the estimation of past earthquakes seismological parameters, 2014). Mw and depth metadata were defined according to the Si-Hex catalogue (Cara et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015.  https://doi.org/10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3), published information, and to the specific worked conducted within SIGMA related to early instrumental recordings (Benjumea et al. in Study of instrumented earthquakes that occurred during the first part of the 20th century (1905–1962), 2015). For the depth estimates, we also performed a macroseismic analysis to evaluate the range of plausible estimates and check the consistency of the solutions. Uncertainties on the metadata related to the calibration earthquakes were evaluated using the range of available alternative estimates. The intensity attenuation models were developed using a one-step maximum likelihood scheme. Several mathematical formulations and sub-datasets were considered to evaluate the robustness of the results (similarly to Baumont and Scotti in Accounting for data and modeling uncertainties in empirical macroseismic predictive equations (EMPEs). Towards “European” EMPEs based on SISFRANCE, DBMI, ECOS macroseismic database, 2008). In particular, as the region of interest may be characterized by significant laterally varying attenuation properties (Bakun and Scotti in Geophys J Int 164:596–610, 2006; Gasperini in Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:826–841, 2001), we introduced regional attenuation terms to account for this variability. Two zonation schemes were tested, one at the national scale (France/Italy), another at the regional scale based on the studies of Mayor et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0124-8) for France and Gasperini (2001) for Italy. Between and within event residuals were analyzed in detail to identify the best models, that is, the ones associated with the best misfit and most limited residual trends with intensity and distance. This analysis led us to select four sets of models for which no significant trend in the between- and within-event residuals is detected. These models are considered to be valid over a wide range of Mw covering?~?3.5–7.0.  相似文献   

Interferometry in the era of time-domain astronomy     

Gail H. Schaefer  Arnaud Cassan  Alexandre Gallenne  Rachael M. Roettenbacher  Jean Schneider 《Experimental Astronomy》2018,46(3):421-431

The physical nature of time variable objects is often inferred from photometric light-curves and spectroscopic variations. Long-baseline optical interferometry has the power to resolve the spatial structure of time variable sources directly in order to measure their physical properties and test the physics of the underlying models. Recent interferometric studies of variable objects include measuring the angular expansion and spatial structure during the early stages of novae outbursts, studying the transits and tidal distortions of the components in eclipsing and interacting binaries, measuring the radial pulsations in Cepheid variables, monitoring changes in the circumstellar discs around rapidly rotating massive stars, and imaging starspots. Future applications include measuring the image size and centroid displacements in gravitational microlensing events, and imaging the transits of exoplanets. Ongoing and upcoming photometric surveys will dramatically increase the number of time-variable objects detected each year, providing many potential targets to observe interferometrically. For short-lived transient events, it is critical for interferometric arrays to have the flexibility to respond rapidly to targets of opportunity and optimize the selection of baselines and beam combiners to provide the necessary resolution and sensitivity to resolve the source as its brightness and size change. We discuss the science opportunities made possible by resolving variable sources using long baseline optical interferometry.  相似文献   

Ecophysiological differences between vesicomyid species and metabolic capabilities of their symbionts influence distribution patterns of the deep‐sea clams     

Perrine Cruaud  Carole Decker  Karine Olu  Sophie Arnaud‐Haond  Claire Papot  Jocelyn Le Baut  Adrien Vigneron  Alexis Khripounoff  Nicolas Gayet  Ccile Cathalot  Jean‐Claude Caprais  Patricia Pignet  Anne Godfroy  Marie‐Anne Cambon‐Bonavita 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(3)

This study provides an analysis of vesicomyid bivalve–symbiont community distribution across cold seep and hydrothermal vent areas in the Guaymas Basin (Gulf of California, Mexico). Using a combination of morphological and molecular approaches including fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), and electronic microscopy observations, vesicomyid clam species and their associated symbionts were characterized and results were analyzed in light of geochemical conditions and other on‐site observations. A greater diversity of vesicomyids was found at cold seep areas, where three different species were present (Phreagena soyoae [syn. kilmeri], Archivesica gigas, and Calyptogena pacifica). In contrast, A. gigas was the only species sampled across the hydrothermal vent area. The same haplotype of A. gigas was found in both hydrothermal vent and cold seep areas, highlighting possible contemporary exchanges among neighboring vents and seeps. In either ecosystem, molecular characterization of the symbionts confirmed the specificity between symbionts and hosts and supported the hypothesis of a predominantly vertical transmission. In addition, patterns of clams could reflect potential niche preferences for each species. The occurrence of numerous traces of vesicomyid movements on sediments in the sites colonized by A. gigas seemed to indicate that this species might have a better ability to move. Furthermore, variation in gill sulfur content could reveal a higher plasticity and sulfur storage capacity in A. gigas. Thus, the distribution of vesicomyid species across the chemosynthetic areas of the Guaymas Basin could be explained by differences in biological traits of the vesicomyid species that would allow A. gigas to more easily exploit transient and punctual sources of available sulfide than P. soyoae.  相似文献   

Sangay volcano, Ecuador: structural development, present activity and petrology     

Michel Monzier  Claude Robin  Pablo Samaniego  Minard L. Hall  Jo Cotten  Patricia Mothes  Nicolas Arnaud   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1999,90(1-2)

Sangay (5230 m), the southernmost active volcano of the Andean Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ), sits 130 km above a >32-Ma-old slab, close to a major tear that separates two distinct subducting oceanic crusts. Southwards, Quaternary volcanism is absent along a 1600-km-long segment of the Andes. Three successive edifices of decreasing volume have formed the Sangay volcanic complex during the last 500 ka. Two former cones (Sangay I and II) have been largely destroyed by sector collapses that resulted in large debris avalanches that flowed out upon the Amazon plain. Sangay III, being constructed within the last avalanche amphitheater, has been active at least since 14 ka BP. Only the largest eruptions with unusually high Plinian columns are likely to represent a major hazard for the inhabited areas located 30 to 100 km west of the volcano. However, given the volcano's relief and unbuttressed eastern side, a future collapse must be considered, that would seriously affect an area of present-day colonization in the Amazon plain, 30 km east of the summit. Andesites greatly predominate at Sangay, there being few dacites and basalts. In order to explain the unusual characteristics of the Sangay suite—highest content of incompatible elements (except Y and HREE) of any NVZ suite, low Y and HREE values in the andesites and dacites, and high Nb/La of the only basalt found—a preliminary five-step model is proposed: (1) an enriched mantle (in comparison with an MORB source), or maybe a variably enriched mantle, at the site of the Sangay, prior to Quaternary volcanism; (2) metasomatism of this mantle by important volumes of slab-derived fluids enriched in soluble incompatible elements, due to the subduction of major oceanic fracture zones; (3) partial melting of this metasomatized mantle and generation of primitive basaltic melts with Nb/La values typical of the NVZ, which are parental to the entire Sangay suite but apparently never reach the surface and subordinate production of high Nb/La basaltic melts, maybe by lower degrees of melting at the periphery of the main site of magma formation, that only infrequently reach the surface; (4) AFC processes at the base of a 50-km-thick crust, where parental melts pond and fractionate while assimilating remelts of similar basaltic material previously underplated, producing andesites with low Y and HREE contents, due to garnet stability at this depth; (5) low-pressure fractionation and mixing processes higher in the crust. Both an enriched mantle under Sangay prior to volcanism and an important slab-derived input of fluids enriched in soluble incompatible elements, two parameters certainly related to the unique setting of the volcano at the southern termination of the NVZ, apparently account for the exceptionally high contents of incompatible elements of the Sangay suite. In addition, the low Cr/Ni values of the entire suite—another unique characteristic of the NVZ—also requires unusual fractionation processes involving Cr-spinel and/or clinopyroxene, either in the upper mantle or at the base of the crust.  相似文献   

The recruitment of Atlantic salmon in Europe   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Friedland  Kevin D.; MacLean  Julian C.; Hansen  Lars P.; Peyronnet  Arnaud J.; Karlsson  Lars; Reddin  David G.; O Maoileidigh  Niall; McCarthy  Jennifer L. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2009,66(2):289-304

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