Selection of prior distributions and multiscale analysis in Bayesian temperature reconstructions based on fossil assemblages     

Panu Erästö  Lasse Holmström 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(1):69-80

It is possible to reconstruct the past variation of an environmental variable from measured historical indicators when the modern values of the variable and the indicators are known. In a Bayesian statistical approach, the selection of a prior probability distribution for the past values of the environmental variable can then be crucial and the selection therefore should be made carefully. This is particularly the case when the data are noisy and the statistical model used is complex since the influence of the prior on the results can then be especially strong. It can be difficult to elicit the prior probability distribution from the available information, since usually there are no measured data on the past values of the variable one wants to reconstruct and different reconstructions are typically consistent with each other only at a coarse level. To overcome these difficulties we propose to use a non-informative smoothing prior, possibly in combination with an informative prior, that simply penalizes for roughness of the reconstruction as measured by the variability of its values. We believe that it can sometimes be easier to set an overall prior distribution on the roughness than to agree on a prior for the actual values of the reconstructed variable. Note that by using a smoothing prior one incorporates into the model itself the smoothing step usually done before or after the actual numerical reconstruction. Another idea proposed in this paper is to integrate the reconstruction model with a multiscale feature analysis technique known as SiZer. Multiscale analysis of the posterior distribution of the reconstructed variable makes it possible to infer its statistically significant features such as trends, maxima and minima at several different time scales. While only temperature is considered in this paper, the technique can be applied to other environmental variables.  相似文献   

1961—2010年我国夏季总降水和极端降水的变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

曾颖婷  陆尔 《气候变化研究进展》2015,(2):79-85

利用1961—2010年我国753站逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了近50年我国夏季降水的变化,包括夏季总降水量、极端降水量和极端降水频次的变化。结果表明,夏季总降水量和极端降水量的空间分布大致相似,在我国东南和西南部呈上升趋势,在东北和西北部呈下降趋势。用泊松回归拟合出的极端降水频次变化趋势显示,江淮流域及其以南地区测站的降水频次普遍增加,以北地区则呈减少趋势。进一步分析得到,我国大部分地区的夏季总降水量变化由降水平均强度的变化引起,而极端降水量的变化多由降水频次的变化引起。通过比较温度和水汽变化对降水量变化影响的相对重要性得到:在黄河以北大多数地区,水汽变化主导夏季总降水量的变化;而在江淮流域及华南大部分地区,温度变化为主导。  相似文献   

黄河口邻近海域底栖动物粒径谱研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

华尔  张志南 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2009,39(5)

首次建立了黄河口邻近海域4个站位底栖动物生物量粒径谱和标准化生物量粒径谱。生物量粒径谱模式为三峰模式,3峰分别由海洋线虫,其他小型底栖动物类群和大型底栖动物形成。研究站位标准化粒径谱斜率变化范围为-0.859至-0.664,截距为15.035至16.331,与东、黄海和南黄海研究结果一致,可有效地指示营养输入状况和总生物量。同时,需要指出的是截距对总生物量的指示作用需注意粒级选择的一致性。利用粒径谱方法计算了底栖动物次级生产力,结果显示,研究站位平均次级生产力为6.717 g.DW.m-2a-1,大型底栖动物次级生产力为4.509 g.DW.m-2a-1,小型底栖动物次级生产力为2.208 g.DW.m-2a-1。粒径谱方法计算结果与其他次级生产力计算方法基本一致。与其他方法相比,该方法更加简便,可避免因对生物特性的把握不准而引起的计算误差。  相似文献   

秋季莱州湾及邻近海域大型底栖动物群落结构的研究   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

周红  华尔  张志南 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2010,40(8)

2006年11月在莱州湾及邻近海域的25个站位进行大型底栖动物取样调查。运用PRIMER软件对大型底栖动物群落结构及其与环境因子的关系进行多变量统计分析。结果表明,莱州湾及黄河口邻近海域与渤海中部为2个不同的群落,这2个群落在各类群的丰度、生物量和种类组成上有所不同:渤海中部群落以耳口露齿螺(Ringicula (Ringicula) doliaris)、豆形凯利蛤(Kellia porculus)、不倒翁虫(Sternaspis scutata)和塞切尔泥钩虾(Eriopisella sechellensis)为优势种类,而湾内群落则以小亮樱蛤(Nitidotellina minuta)、杯尾水虱(Cythura sp.)、中华蜾赢蜚(Corophium sinense)和不倒翁虫为代表。莱州湾西部黄河口外的3个站位构成了不同于湾内其它站位的亚群落,该群落主要以日本强鳞虫(Sthenolepis japonica)、日本倍棘蛇尾(Amphioplus japonicus)、理蛤(Theora lata)和细长涟虫(Iphinoe tenera)为代表。群落结构的这种差异主要与水深、底盐、底温和底氧的变化有关,同时也受到沉积物Chla含量和异质性系数等沉积环境因子的影响。研究海域的水层环境条件主要与水深和离岸的远近有关,而沉积环境条件特别是粒度组成主要受到黄河的影响,自西向东颗粒由细变粗,异质性增加,粉砂-黏土含量下降。沉积环境梯度的变化及其对大型底栖生物群落结构的影响在莱州湾较渤海中部更加明显。与1980年代和90年代相比,莱州湾及渤海中部大型底栖动物的种类组成和群落结构发生了改变,总的来说是朝向更小型的多毛类和甲壳类比例增加,而体型较大的棘皮动物和双壳类软体动物种类减少的方向发展。  相似文献   

黄淮海平原农田灌溉模式及其效益的研究——以山东省聊城地区为例   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李庆朝  张二勋 《地理研究》1999,18(3):305-311

采用系统工程分析的方法,研究黄淮海平原渠灌、地下暗管灌、喷灌等农田灌溉工程配套模式,并就其用水、耗资、能耗及占用土地等在山东省聊城地区进行了实例分析。  相似文献   

Rainfall retention and runoff generation processes in tropical mature green roof ecosystems     

Eréndira Alejandra Arellano-Leyva  Melissa López-Portillo  Lyssette Elena Muñoz-Villers  Blanca Lucía Prado-Pano 《水文研究》2021,35(11):e14382

Rainfall retention and runoff detention are likely the most important ecosystem services provided by extensive green roofs (EGRs) that contribute to urban stormwater mitigation and management. However, the hydrological performance and runoff generation mechanisms of mature, well-established EGRs in tropical regions remain poorly understood. This study evaluated the rainfall retention, discharge detention times and processes of runoff generation in two neighbouring 20-year-old EGRs with different slopes (2° and 14° for EGRns and EGRws, respectively) and management practices in Mexico City; results were compared with those obtained in a conventional roof (CR, 2° slope). Precipitation, substrate moisture and storm runoff were continuously measured during the 2017 and 2018 rainy seasons (May–November). Results showed spatial differences in substrate properties and moisture within and between green roofs. In general, higher bulk densities and a wide range of variation in water content characterized the bare substrate areas compared to those below vegetation. Greatest increases in substrate moisture and storm runoff were observed in the steeper green roof. Subsurface flow was the dominant process controlling the amount and timing of stormflow in the EGRs. The occurrence of saturation excess overland flow was small and detected when large rain events were preceded by high wetness conditions. The main factors influencing the hydrological responses of the green roofs were their substrate hydrophysical properties, related mostly to vegetation cover, management and age, and to much lesser extent to slope and substrate depth. On average, rainfall retention was ~60% in the EGRs with significantly longer delays and prolonged runoff times (100 and 340 min, respectively) compared to CR (3%, 20 min, and 258 min, respectively). Overall, these findings highlight the potential of EGRs in reducing stormflow and peak discharges for most rainfall in Mexico City, and thus mitigating the risk of saturation and overflow of urban drainages.  相似文献   

2010年梅雨期间我国东部地区降水异常的成因     

李慧  周顺武  王亚非  陆尔  于超  王传辉 《南京气象学院学报》2014,6(6):549-557

基于我国台站的逐日降水观测资料,根据2010年梅雨期间(6—7月)我国东部地区雨带的落区,将该年梅雨期间的降水划分为3个主要阶段:第一阶段为6月7—11日,雨带主要集中在长江中下游地区;第二阶段为6月18—22日,雨带中心南压至江南地区;第三阶段为7月7—17日,此时雨带北抬重回到长江中下游地区.结合NCEP/NCAR逐日的再分析资料,分析了上述3个阶段的环流特征,结果表明:1) 雨带出现南北摆动的现象与强冷空气南下有关;2) 在第一阶段和第三阶段,长江中下游地区分别处在暖式切变和弱的暖式切变的控制之下,是造成降水的主要原因;3) 6—7月西太平洋副热带高压脊点位置明显偏西,脊线位置明显偏南,二者与长江中下游降水存在显著的负相关,3次强降水过程的发生时间都对应着西太平副热带高压位置偏西,降水发生的位置正好位于西太平洋副热带高压的北侧.  相似文献   

Carbon dioxide,water vapor,and heat fluxes over agricultural crop field in an arid oasis of Northwest China,as determined by eddy covariance     

Xi Bin Ji  Wen Zhi Zhao  Er Si Kang  Zhi Hui Zhang  Bo Wen Jin 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(3):619-629

Fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and heat were measured above crop canopy using the eddy covariance method during the 2008 maize growing season, over an agricultural field within an oasis located in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin, northwest China. The values for friction velocity, the Monin–Obukhov stability parameter, and energy balance closure indicated that the eddy covariance system at this study site provided reliable flux estimates. Results from measurements showed that the mean sensible heat flux was 70 W m⁻² with a maximum value of 164 W m⁻² (May) and a minimum value of 45 W m⁻² (July) during the maize growing season. In contrast, the mean latent heat was 278 W m⁻² with a maximum value of 383 W m⁻² (July) and minimum of 101 W m⁻² (May). The mean downward soil heat flux was 55 W m⁻² with a maximum value of 127 W m⁻² (May) and minimum of 49 W m⁻² (July). The magnitude of mean daytime net CO₂ uptake was −11.50 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ with a maximum value of −28.32 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ (18 and 19 July) and a minimum values of −0.32 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ (18 and 19 May). Correlation was observed between daytime half-hourly carbon dioxide flux and canopy conductance. In addition, the relationship between carbon dioxide flux and photosynthetically active radiation for selected days during different stages of maize growing season indicated the carbon dioxide flux uptake by the canopy was controlled by actual photosynthetic activity related to the variation of green leaf area index for the different growing stages.  相似文献   

The cosmological constant and the clusters of galaxies     

Er Ma  Shi Chen  Yu Yun-qiang 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》1997,21(4):381-388

The dependence of the formation redshift of clusters of galaxies on the cosmological constant is discussed on the basis of recent measurements of gravitational masses and radii from X-ray astronomy techniques. For a flat CDM model with several different values of the cosmological constant, the cluster number density as a function of the redshift is calculated. Comparing the calculated number density at z − 0 with the observed value limits the spectrum parameter Γ to the range 0.15–0.32. We also show that if Γ and/or Ω_Λ were larger, many more clusters of galaxies would have been formed at high redshifts.  相似文献   

大爆炸核合成研究的新进展     

陈时  俞允强 《天文学进展》1996,14(2):81-93

阐明了标准大爆炸核事成（ＳＢＢＮ）模型的理论和观测状况，着重讨论了１９９４年的最新进展：已有３位有效数字的＾４Ｈｅ丰度初值Ｙ４ｐ与由银河系观测推得的Ｄ＋＾３Ｈｅ丰度原初值Ｙ２３ｐ间出现预报的可能性，使ＳＢＢＮ模型面临考验；高红移吸收云中氚丰度测量的有关结果与原有Ｙ２３ｐ显著矛盾，而与Ｙ４ｐ偏小的趋向相合，可能对银河系化学演化模型提出质疑，因此，河ＨＩＩ区中氦丰度和高红移吸收云中氚丰度的进一步测量以  相似文献