Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

W. R. McCann  S. P. Nishenko  L. R. Sykes  J. Krause 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1082-1147

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.  相似文献   

An analysis of the Chow-Kulandaiswamy GHS model     

Roger C. McCann  Vijay P. Singh 《Advances in water resources》1980,3(4):173-180

The Chow-Kulandaiswamy general hydrologic system (GHS) model is revisited. Based on a mathematical study by Singh and McCann the GHS model is simplified. Explicit solutions are obtained for special cases which can satisfactorily determine watershed surface runoff response due to given rainfall excess. A rational criterion is developed to determine the number of derivative terms to be retained in the model. In order to determine the coefficients in the GHS model the method of moments is proposed. Criteria are developed to determine complex roots and oscillations for these coefficients. By analysing Chow-Kulandaiswamy's results it is found that in a majority of cases which they studied roots are complex. Moreover, for the cases which have complex roots, a majority of the solutions oscillate. A brief sensitivity analysis of the GHS model is performed with regard to: (a) its leading coefficient, and (b) the order of the differential equation. Finally, the peak characteristics are specified for the second order case and their qualitative properties are shown for the third order case.  相似文献   

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孟国杰  申旭辉  伍吉仓  任金卫 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(1):19-23

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Seasonal distribution of rainfall in Australia analysed by Fourier methods     

Eugene A. Fitzpatrick 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1964,13(2):270-286

Summary A harmonic or Fourier analysis of mean monthly rainfall data is found useful in objectively describing and mapping the seasonality of rainfall within Australia. Over large areas the seasonal component is well described by the first and second harmonic terms, leaving as a residual variance only a small proportion of the observed total variance. Care must be taken in the interpretation of second harmonic contributions within those areas of tropical Australia under strong monsoonal influences. This is because pecularities in the form of the annual rainfall regime make the first harmonic term inadequate in itself to fully describe the annual trend. The technique is found particularly useful in defining the boundaries of areas of similar seasonality, and maps based upon the first and second harmonic amplitudes are shown to bear a close relationship with known physical controls.

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Zusammenfassung Zur objektiven Beschreibung der jahreszeitlichen Schwankung der Regenfälle in Australien und ihrer kartenmäßigen Darstellung wird mit Erfolg die harmonische Analyse der mittleren Monatsmengen des Niederschlags angewendet. Über weiten Gebieten wird die jahreszeitliche Schwankung durch die ersten beiden harmonischen Schwingungen gut dargestellt; die Reststreuung macht nur einen kleinen Bruchteil der beobachteten Gesamtstreuung aus. Vorsicht erscheint jedoch geboten bei der Interpretation des Anteils der zweiten Harmonischen in den Gebieten des tropischen Australien, die unter starkem Monsuneinfluß stehen. Hier machen Besonderheiten im Niederschlagsregime selbst die erste Harmonische ungenügend zur Beschreibung des Jahresganges. Die angewandte Methode ist besonders geeignet, die Grenzen zwischen Gebieten mit gleichartigem Jahreszeiteneinfluß festzulegen. Karten, die auf der ersten und zweiten harmonischen Schwingung beruhen, zeigen einen engen Zusammenhang mit bekannten physikalischen Faktoren.

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Résumé Afin de décrire objectivement les variations saisonnières des précipitations en Australie, on se sert avantageusement de l'analyse harmonique des sommes mensuelles moyennes. Cette méthode est également utilisée pour la représentation cartographique des dites variations. Les amplitudes saisonnières sont bien rendues par les deux premières harmoniques et cela pour de grandes étendues. L'amplitude qui reste ne représente qu'une faible fraction de l'amplitude totale observée. Il faut cependant procéder avec prudence lors de l'interprétation de la part revenant à la seconde harmonique dans les contrées tropicales de l'Australie, contrées qui subissent fortement l'influence de la mousson. Dans ce cas précis, les particularités du régime des précipitations ne permettent même pas d'utiliser la première harmonique pour décrire l'évolution des pluies au cours de l'année. La méthode proposée est surtout intéressante pour délimiter les régions soumises aux mêmes régimes. Des cartes basées sur la première et la seconde harmonique montrent un rapport étroit entre les précipitations et certains facteurs physiques connus.

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With 9 Figures  相似文献   

An atlas of ground UV spectra of selected stars     

Valentina G. Klochkova  Eugene L. Chentsov  Tonu Kipper  Vladimir E. Panchuk  Nonna S. Tavolganskaya  Maxim V. Yushkin 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,335(1):83-89

We present a spectral atlas of 4 B and A stars containing spectra in a poorly studied spectral range of 305–452 nm. The atlas is based on high resolution (R=60 000) spectra obtained with the 6 meter telescope (SAO, Russia) combined with the NES-spectrograph. The procedure of spectral lines identification and compilation of the atlas is discussed in detail. Using the spectral data we thoroughly investigated the velocity field in expanding atmospheres and envelopes of hot evolved stars β Ori, α Cyg and supergiant KS Per with the extreme hydrogen deficiency. The complete atlas and list of the identified spectral lines will be available via the astronomical database SIMBAD.  相似文献   

Barringer Medal Citation for Richard A. F. Grieve     

Eugene M. Shoemaker 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1991,26(1):71-71

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From desert to Mediterranean rangelands: will increasing drought and inter-annual rainfall variability affect herbaceous annual primary productivity?     

Carly Golodets  Marcelo Sternberg  Jaime Kigel  Bertrand Boeken  Zalmen Henkin  No’am G. Seligman  Eugene David Ungar 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):785-798

Climate change is predicted to alter the rainfall regime in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin: total annual rainfall will decrease, while seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall will increase. Such changes in the rainfall regime could potentially lead to large-scale changes in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in the region. We conducted a data-driven evaluation of herbaceous ANPP along an entire regional rainfall gradient, from desert (90 mm MAR [Mean Annual Rainfall]) to Mesic-Mediterranean (780 mm MAR) ecosystems, using the largest database ever collated for herbaceous ANPP in Israel, with the aim of predicting consequences of climate change for rangeland productivity. This research revealed that herbaceous ANPP increases with increasing rainfall along the gradient, but strong dependence on rainfall was only apparent within dry sites. Rain Use Efficiency peaks at mid-gradient in Mediterranean sites without woody vegetation (560 and 610 mm MAR). Inter-annual coefficients of variation in rainfall and herbaceous ANPP decrease along the rainfall gradient up to ca. 500 mm MAR. Climate change is more likely to affect herbaceous ANPP of rangelands in the arid end of the rainfall gradient, requiring adaptation of rangeland management, while ANPP of rangelands in more mesic ecosystems is less responsive to variation in rainfall. We conclude that herbaceous ANPP in most Mediterranean rangelands is less vulnerable to climate change than generally predicted.  相似文献   

NIGHTGLOW: an instrument to measure the Earth’s nighttime ultraviolet glow—results from the first engineering flight     

Louis M. Barbier  Robert Smith  Scott Murphy  Eric R. Christian  Rodger Farley  John F. Krizmanic  John W. Mitchell  Robert E. Streitmatter  Eugene C. Loh  Stephen Stochaj 《Astroparticle Physics》2005,22(5-6):439-449

We have designed and built an instrument to measure and monitor the “nightglow” of the Earth’s atmosphere in the near ultraviolet (NUV). In this paper we describe the design of this instrument, called NIGHTGLOW. NIGHTGLOW is designed to be flown from a high altitude research balloon, and circumnavigate the globe. NIGHTGLOW is a NASA, University of Utah, and New Mexico State University project. A test flight took place from Palestine, Texas on July 5, 2000, lasting about 8 h. The instrument performed well and landed safely in Stiles, Texas with little damage. The resulting measurements of the NUV nightglow are compared with previous measurements from sounding rockets and balloons.  相似文献   

Fossil hyrax dung and evidence of Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation types in the Namib Desert     

Louis Scott  Eugene Marais  George A. Brook 《第四纪科学杂志》2004,19(8):829-832

Pollen was derived from fossil dung of herbivorous hyraxes, deposited in a rock shelter on the highest mountain in Namibia, Dâures or Brandberg, situated on the Namib Desert margin. Radiocarbon dating ranging in age between modern times and 30 000 yr BP showed it represents the first empirical pollen evidence of continental palaeovegetation during the Late Pleistocene along the western escarpment of southern Africa. The initial results indicate Last Glacial Maximum vegetation differed totally from the current pattern as vegetation types were dominated by small Asteraceae shrubs, in contrast to those of the Holocene and modern times which show more succulents, grass and woody elements (arboreal pollen). The results suggest that Cape floral communities did not reach into the tropics along the western escarpment of Africa, despite such pollen types occurring in marine cores. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ACCEPTANCE OF THE BARRINGER AWARD     

Eugene M. Shoemaker 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1984,19(4):180-182

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