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91.
92.
The study examines the changes in sub-Saharan's natural land cover resources for a 25 year period. We assess these changes in four broad land cover classes – forests, natural non-forest vegetation, agriculture and barren – by using high spatial resolution Earth observing satellites. Two sets of sample images, one ‘historical’ targeted at 1975 and a second ‘recent’ targeted at the year 2000, have been selected through a stratified random sampling technique over the study area, targeting a sampling rate of 1% in each of the strata. The results, presented at eco-region level and aggregated at sub-Saharan level, show a 57% increase in agriculture area at the expense of natural vegetation which has itself decreased by 21% over the period, with nearly 5 million hectares forest and non-forest natural vegetation lost per year. The impacts of these changes on the environment on one site and on the socio-economy on the other site are discussed and possible pressures on human well being are highlighted.  相似文献   
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The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in extended summer season in the population of the Czech Republic (Central Europe) during 1986?C2009. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in spite of rising temperature trends. The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socioeconomic development, following the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that affect vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed nonstationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.  相似文献   
95.
The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for daily maxima than minima. RCMs qualitatively reproduce these relationships. Effects of the driving model biases were found on RCMs’ performance in reproducing not only atmospheric circulation but also the links to surface temperature. However, the RCM formulation appears to be more important than the driving data in representing the latter. Differences of the circulation-to-temperature links among the RCA simulations are smaller and the links tend to be more realistic compared to the driving GCMs.  相似文献   
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Using a state‐of‐the‐art 193 nm‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS system and with careful control of analytical procedures, the long term external reproducibility and accuracy of the ages Phanerozoic zircons measured over a period of months using calibrator bracketing for the 206Pb/238U and 207Pb/206Pb ages were ca. 1% (2 RSD) if a single reference zircon was used for the matrix‐matched calibration. When different reference zircons were used for the calibration, suspicious systematic shifts in the obtained ages were observed and thus a reduction in the overall accuracy of the dating method became obvious. Such shifts were within a few percent range of the U‐Pb and Pb/Pb ages and seemed to vary independently of zircon age and composition. A “test of accuracy” experiment was conducted reducing instrumental effects as far as possible by analysing five different reference zircons mounted on a single mount eight times during the same session. An identical protocol was used for all analyses, with unchanged instrument parameters and with ion beam intensities kept as identical as possible. For data reduction, every zircon served consecutively as the reference zircon for calibration, with the others in the batch treated as unknowns. The known reference age and the four calculated ages obtained using the four other RMs for calibration were then compared. Even using such a strict analytical protocol, shifts in 206Pb/238U, 207Pb/235U and 207Pb/206Pb ratios were still present. They varied non‐systematically and ranged from ?4.35% to 3.08% for the investigated age range (1065 Ma to 226 Ma). Assuming the absence of instrumental effects (i.e., memory, dead‐time correction, non‐linearity of ion counters and interdetector calibration, crystallographic orientation, ablation cell geometry and setup, gas flows), the observed shifts were attributed to matrix and/or ablation related effects. It is proposed that non‐spectral matrix effects in the Ar plasma torch resulted in non‐uniform signal enhancement (or depression?) leading to shifts both in elemental and Pb isotopic ratios. Additionally, the ablated particle size distribution could be an important factor controlling plasma conditions and thus mass bias and fractionation. Until such effects are well understood and controlled, it would seem that any LA‐ICP‐MS zircon U‐Pb and 207Pb/206Pb age determination cannot be meaningfully interpreted at below a ca. 3% to 4% (2 RSD) confidence level.  相似文献   
99.
The aim of this study is to improve our knowledge of the attenuation structure in the Southern Apennines using a new amplitude ratio tomography method (Phillips et al., Geophys Res Lett 32(21):L21301, 2005) applied on both direct and coda envelope measurements derived from 150 events recorded by 47 stations of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia National Seismic Network (Rete Sismica Nazionale Centralizzata). The two-dimensional (2-D) analysis allows us to take into account lateral crustal variations and heterogeneities of this region. Using the same event and station distribution, we also applied a simple 1-D methodology, and the performance of the 1-D and 2-D path assumptions is tested by comparing the average interstation variance for the path-corrected amplitudes using coda and direct waves. In general, coda measurement results are more stable than using direct waves when the same methodology is applied. Using the 2-D approach, we observe more stable results for both waves. However, the improvement is quite small, probably because the crustal heterogeneity is weak. This means that, for this region, the 1-D path assumption is a good approximation of the attenuation characteristics of the region. A comparison between Q tomography images obtained using direct and coda amplitudes shows similar results, consistent with the geology of the region. In fact, we observe low Q along the Apennine chain toward the Tyrrhenian Sea and higher values to the east, in correspondence with the Gargano zone that is related to the Apulia Carbonate Platform. Finally, we compared our results with the coda Q values proposed by Bianco et al. (Geophys J Int 150:10–22, 2002) for the same region. The good agreement validates our results as the authors used a completely independent methodology.  相似文献   
100.
In the two previous papers of this series, we demonstrated how a novel approach to erosion modelling (Mahleran – Model for Assessing Hillslope‐Landscape Erosion, Runoff And Nutrients) provided distinct advantages in terms of process representation and explicit scaling characteristics when compared with existing models. A first evaluation furthermore demonstrated the ability of the model to reproduce spatial and temporal patterns of erosion and their particle‐size characteristics on a large rainfall‐simulation plot. In this paper, we carry out a more detailed evaluation of the model using monitored erosion events on plots of different size. The evaluation uses four plots of 21·01, 115·94, 56·84 and 302·19 m2, with lengths of 4·12, 14·48, 18·95 and 27·78 m, respectively, on similar soils to the rainfall‐simulation plot, for which runoff and erosion were monitored under natural rainfall. Although the model produces the correct ranking of the magnitude of erosion events, it performs less well in reproducing the absolute values and particle‐size distributions of the eroded sediment. The implications of these results are evaluated in terms of requirements for process understanding and data for parameterization of improved soil‐erosion models. We suggest that there are major weaknesses in the current understanding and data underpinning existing models. Consequently, a more holistic re‐evaluation is required that produces functional relationships for different processes that are mutually consistent, and that have appropriate parameterization data to support their use in a wide range of environmental conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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