Comments on “Least-squares Prediction and Filtering in Any Dimensions Using the Principles of Array Algebra”     

Bertrand T. Fang 《Journal of Geodesy》1978,52(4):281-283

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The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Wu  Jian Yin  Yonghong Hao  Yan Liu  Yonghui Fan  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2015,29(13):2855-2866

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于Windows 2003远程终端服务的气象信息共享平台的开发和应用     

吴孟春  赵放  吴启满 《成都信息工程学院学报》2007,22(4):490-494

Windows 2003 Server提供的远程终端服务功能实现了多用户同时操作,远程终端多用户通过远程终端功能可以同时在远程终端服务上运行程序、保存文件和使用网络资源等,为业务应用提供了便捷.介绍利用Windows Server 2003远程终端(包括远程桌面和终端服务),开发了气象业务中多用户共享MICAPS20、雷达PUP产品及其它气象应用系统的信息服务平台,在实际应用中发挥了很好的应用效果.  相似文献   

An Estimation of Internal Soliton Forces on a Pile in the Ocean   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

DU Tao SUN Li ZHANG Yijun BAO Xianwen FANG Xinhua 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2007,6(2):101-106

Internal soliton forces on oil-platform piles in the ocean are estimated with the Morison Formula. Different from sur- face wave forces, which change only in magnitude along a pile, internal soliton forces can be distributed over the entire pile in the water and they change not only in magnitude but also in direction with depth. Our calculations show that the maximum total force caused by a soliton with its associated current of 2.1 m s-1 is nearly equal to the maximum total force exerted by a surface wave with a wavelength of 300 m and a wave-height of 18 m. The total internal soliton force is large enough to affect the operations of marine oil platforms and other facilities. Therefore, the influence of internal solitons should not be neglected in the design of oil platforms.  相似文献   

1982年12月2日耀斑随时间变化的半经验模型     

方成  黄佑然  胡菊  甘为群 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1986,(4)

我们利用南京大学太阳塔中的多波段光谱仪,在H_α、H_β和CaⅡ H、K三个波段同时拍到了1982年12月2日日面S15W11处的一个SB级耀斑的光谱。本文给出其中七个时刻的谱线轮廓及有关参数的序列。在非局部热动平衡条件下计算了耀斑随时间变化的半经验模型,结果显示了色球耀斑的演化过程。利用模型得到了一些色球物质蒸发参数,结果同根据SMM的X射线观测所作的估计相一致。  相似文献   

OFDM基带处理系统的设计与实现     

王浩 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(Z1):140-142

阐述了适合高速无线数据传输的正交频分复用(OFDM)调制方式的基本原理及调制解调的快速傅立叶变换(FFT)实现,并给出OFDM基带处理系统的结构图和硬件模块框图。  相似文献   

Further improvements to the higher-order Boussinesq equations: Bragg reflection     

Z.L. Zou  Z.B. Liu  K.Z. Fang 《Coastal Engineering》2009,56(5-6):672-687

Enhancements for the Bragg reflection are introduced for three sets of 2D higher order Boussinesq equations to improve the prediction of the Bragg reflection. The extension of the approach to other sets of Boussinesq equations is discussed. The analytical solutions for the Bragg reflection over an infinite number of sinusoidal bars are derived for these Boussinesq models and compared to the exact theoretical solution in order to determine the optimized values of the parameters in the new enhancement terms. Numerical simulations are also carried out for the Bragg reflection over a finite number of sand bars and compared with corresponding measurements to validate the enhancements. Comparisons with other forms of Boussinesq models are made to discuss the applicability of different forms of Boussinesq models to rapidly varying topography with sand bars. The effects of the mild slope assumption on the prediction of Bragg reflection and of wave reflection on a plane self are also discussed.  相似文献   

Experimental study of extreme shear stress for shallow flow under simulated rainfall     

Jau‐Yau Lu  Jun‐Ji Lee  Tai‐Fang Lu  Jian‐Hao Hong 《水文研究》2009,23(11):1660-1667

The raindrop impact and overland flow are two major factors causing soil detachment and particle transportation. In this study, the turbulent characteristics of the shallow rain‐impacted water flow were investigated using a 2‐D fibre‐optic laser Doppler velocimetry (FLDV) and an artificial rainfall simulator. The fluctuating turbulent shear stress was computed using digital data processing techniques. The experimental data showed that the Reynolds shear stress follows a probability distribution with heavy tails. The tail probability increases with an increase of rainfall intensity or raindrop diameter, and it decreases with an increase of Reynolds number. A modified empirical equation was derived using both the raindrop diameter and rainfall intensity as independent variables to provide a better prediction of the Darcy‐Weisbach friction coefficient f under rainfall conditions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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廖成旺  邓涛  丁炜  王浩  谭耀银  陈卫民 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(6):61-64

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Isophotal shapes of elliptical/lenticular galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey     

C. N. Hao  S. Mao  Z. G. Deng  X. Y. Xia  Hong Wu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,370(3):1339-1350

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