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Active faulting and natural hazards in Armenia, eastern Turkey and northwestern Iran 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Arkady S. Karakhanian Vladimir G. Trifonov Herve Philip Ara Avagyan Khaled Hessami Farshad Jamali M. Salih Bayraktutan H. Bagdassarian S. Arakelian V. Davtian A. Adilkhanyan 《Tectonophysics》2004,380(3-4):189-219
Active fault zones of Armenia, SE Turkey and NW Iran present a diverse set of interrelated natural hazards. Three regional case studies in this cross-border zone are examined to show how earthquakes interact with other hazards to increase the risk of natural disaster. In northern Armenia, a combination of several natural and man-made phenomena (earthquakes, landslides and unstable dams with toxic wastes) along the Pambak-Sevan-Sunik fault (PSSF) zone lowers from 0.4 to 0.2–0.3g the maximum permissible level (MPL) of seismic hazard that may induce disastrous destruction and loss of life in the adjacent Vanadzor depression.
In the Ararat depression, a large active fault-bounded pull-apart basin at the junction of borders of Armenia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, an earthquake in 1840 was accompanied by an eruption of Ararat Volcano, lahars, landslides, floods, soil subsidence and liquefaction. The case study demonstrates that natural hazards that are secondary with respect to earthquakes may considerably increase the damage and the casualties and increase the risk associated with the seismic impact.
The North Tabriz–Gailatu fault system poses a high seismic hazard to the border areas of NW Iran, eastern Turkey, Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan) and southern Armenia. Right-lateral strike–slip motions along the North Tabriz fault have given rise to strong earthquakes, which threaten the city of Tabriz with its population of 1.2 million.
The examples illustrate how the concentration of natural hazards in active fault zones increases the risk associated with strong earthquakes in Armenia, eastern Turkey and NW Iran. This generally occurs across the junctions of international borders. Hence, the transboundary character of active faults requires transboundary cooperation in the study and mitigation of the natural risk. 相似文献
33.
Active faults in the Zagros and central Iran 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
D. M. Bachmanov V. G. Trifonov Kh. T. Hessami A. I. Kozhurin T. P. Ivanova E. A. Rogozhin M. C. Hademi F. H. Jamali 《Tectonophysics》2004,380(3-4):221-241
Active tectonic movements in the northwestern Zagros include right lateral slip at the rate of about 10 mm/a along the Main Recent Fault, which inherits the position of the Main Thrust, now inactive, and active thrusting and accompanying folding distributed between several zones southwest of the Main Recent Fault. In the southeastern Zagros (the Fars Province), there are several right lateral faults that extend N–S obliquely to the overall trend of the Zagros fault-and-fold belt. These may be either branches of the Main Recent Fault, or faults accommodating relative broadening of the outer Zagros in its southeastern segment. The Main Thrust in the southeastern Zagros also remains inactive.
The Ipak, North Tehran, and Mosha fault zones and several minor structures in the eastern Alborz form the E–W-trending active fault system with combined reverse and left lateral slip. On the Ipak and Mosha zones, lateral movements with the late Quaternary mean rate exceeding 1 mm/a dominate over vertical fault movements. Together with right lateral faults stretching northeast of Zagros, the faults of the Alborz may accommodate east-directed motion of the Iranian microplate. 相似文献
34.
Teleconnections between oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought over Iran using quantile regressions
ABSTRACT In this research, the Bayesian quantile regression model is applied to investigate the teleconnections between large oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Iran. The 12-month SPI time series from 138 synoptic stations for 1952–2014 were selected as the drought index. Three oceanic–atmospheric indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), were selected as covariates. The results show that NAO has the weakest impact on drought in different quantiles and different regions in Iran. La Niña conditions amplified droughts through all SPI quantiles in western, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The positive phase of MEI significantly modulates low SPI quantiles (i.e. drought conditions) throughout the Zagros region, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The study shows that the effect of large oceanic–atmospheric indices have heterogeneous impacts on extreme dry and wet conditions. 相似文献
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Rapid urbanization has led to extensive land-use changes,particularly in developing countries.This research is aimed to investigate the role of land use and its effect on soil and water quality in Ziarat watershed focusing on four land uses:forest,pasture,cultivated and urban development.Soil samples were taken from a depth of 0-30 cm on each land use and were analyzed by completely randomized split-plot design in two geographical directions.Results showed that bulk density(BD),electrical conductivity(EC),pH,calcium carbonate equivalent(CCE),and soil particle density(DS) of the soil samples in pastures,cultivated and urban areas increased and the mean weight diameter(MWD),soil porosity(F),organic carbons(OC),total nitrogen(TN),exchangeable cations(Ca 2+,Mg 2+,K +,Na +),cation exchange capacity(CEC) and soil microbial respirations(SMR) decreased,respectively in comparison with the forest soils.For water quality evaluations,sodium adsorption ratio(SAR),electrical conductivity(EC),pH,total dissolved solids(TDS),bicarbonate(HCO 3),chloride(Cl),total hardness(TH),calcium(Ca 2+),potassium(K +),sodium(Na +) and magnesium(Mg 2+) were investigated in two areas:Nahrkhoran and Abgir stations.Results showed that the concentration of TDS,EC and HCO 3 in Naharkhoran station is higher than that in Abgir station.On the other hand,the concentration of TDS,EC and HCO 3 in Abgir station are the relatively higher due to its location.Total hardness had the same trend during the study years except in the last three years;however,TH showed an increase of 25% TH in Naharkhoran for the last two years.Cl,K + and SAR in Naharkhoran station increased by 61%,22%,78% and 56% respectively,in comparison with Abgir station.This study demonstrated that the trend of soil degradation and mismanagement of land use may increase the frequency of urban floods and human health problems. 相似文献
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Sensitivity analysis of carbon fiber-reinforced elastomeric isolators based on experimental tests and finite element simulations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Conventional steel-based rubber bearings are being replaced by fiber reinforced elastomeric isolators (FREI) due to their high weight and manufacturing cost. Compared to existing rubber bearings, FREIs have superior performance and as a result can control the seismic response of structures more efficiently. This study aims to simulate the performance of rectangular carbon FREIs (C-FREIs) produced through a simple and cost-effective manufacturing process. Additionally, the effect of different factors including the number and the thickness of rubber layers, as well as the thickness of carbon fiber reinforced sheets are investigated on the performance of C-FREIs through sensitivity analyses based on the results obtained from finite element simulations. The results show that by increasing the number and thickness of rubber layers, the efficiency of C-FREIs degrades in terms of vertical strength and damping capacity, however, the performance improves in terms of lateral flexibility. Another important observation is that the increasing thickness of fiber-reinforced layers can increase the vertical rigidity of the base isolator. The vertical stiffness has the most sensitivity to the thickness of elastomeric layers and the thickness of CFR sheets while, when the number of rubber layers increases, the effective lateral stiffness is mostly affected. 相似文献
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Farshad Ahmadi Feridon Radmaneh Gholam Ali Parham Rasoul Mirabbasi 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(3):1313-1331
Determination of the return period of design flood depends on the nature of the project and the consequences of the flood and is based on economic criteria, human casualties, and hydrological factors. Underestimation of flood might result in casualties and economic damages, while the overestimation leads to capital waste. Therefore, in this research, the flood frequency analysis of Dez Basin, Iran was conducted within the period of 1956–2012 using power law approach together with ordinary distributions, including normal, log normal, Pearson type III, exponential, gamma, generalized extreme value, Nakagami, Rayleigh, logistic, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions. The power law comes from the fractal nature of earth science phenomena such as precipitation and runoff. Accordingly, in this research the partial duration flood series of five hydrometric stations in Dez Basin were extracted using power law with the intervals of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days and then compared with the annual maxima. The results indicated that the annual maxima were not suitable for frequency analysis of the flood in Dez Basin, and the 30-day partial duration series obtained from the power law has a better correspondence with the flow and properties of the Dez Basin. The independence and stationarity of the 30-day partial duration series were examined by Wald–Wolfowitz test, confirming the independence of the considered series. Next, the power distribution and the typical statistical distributions were fitted onto the data of the flood in Dez Basin, with the performance of each distribution being investigated using normalized root-mean-square error and Nash–Sutcliffe criteria. The results revealed that in the SDZ and TPB stations, power distribution had a better performance than other considered distributions. Moreover, in the SDS, TPS, and TZ stations the power distribution stood in the second rank in terms of the best distribution. As the performance of power distribution in the estimation of the flood in Dez Basin has been very satisfactory and calculation of its parameters and its application is easier than ordinary probability distributions, thus it can be suggested as the superior distribution for flood frequency analysis in Dez Basin. 相似文献
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There is growing pressure from regulators on operators to adhere to increasingly stricter regulations related to the environment and safety. Hence, operators are required to predict and contain risks related to hydrocarbon production and their infrastructure in order to maintain their licence to operate. A deeper understanding of production optimisation and production‐related risk requires strengthened knowledge of reservoir behaviour and overburden dynamics. To accomplish this, sufficient temporal and spatial resolution is required as well as an integration of various sources of measurements. At the same time, tremendous developments are taking place in sensors, networks, and data analysis technologies. Sensors and accompanying channels are getting smaller and cheaper, and yet they offer high fidelity. New ecosystems of ubiquitous wireless communications including Internet of Things nowadays allow anyone to affordably connect to the Internet at any time and anywhere. Recent advances in cloud storage and computing combined with data analytics allow fast and efficient solutions to handle considerable amounts of data. This paper is an effort to pave the way for exploiting these three fundamental advances to create Internet of Things‐based wireless networks of seismic sensors. To this aim, we propose to employ a recently developed Internet of Things‐based wireless technology, so‐called low‐power wide‐area networks, to exploit their long range, low power, and inherent compatibility to cloud storage and computing. We create a remotely operated minimum‐maintenance wireless solution for four major seismic applications of interest. By proposing appropriate network architecture and data coordination (aggregation and transmission) designs, we show that neither the low data rate nor the low duty cycle of low‐power wide‐area networks imposes fundamental issues in handling a considerable amount of data created by complex seismic scenarios as long as the application is delay tolerant. In order to confirm this claim, we cast our ideas into a practical large‐scale networking design for simultaneous seismic monitoring and interferometry and carry out an analysis on the data generation and transmission rates. Finally, we present some results from a small‐scale field test in which we have employed our Internet of Things‐based wireless nodes for real‐time seismic quality control over clouds. 相似文献
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Farshad?FathianEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile Ahmad?Fakheri-Fard Reza?Modarres P.?H.?A.?J.?M.?van Gelder 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):999-1016
Multivariate time series modeling approaches are known as useful tools for describing, simulating, and forecasting hydrologic variables as well as their changes over the time. These approaches also have temporal and cross-sectional spatial dependence in multiple measurements. Although the application of multivariate linear and nonlinear time series approaches such as vector autoregressive with eXogenous variables (VARX) and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) models are commonly used in financial and economic sciences, these approaches have not been extensively used in hydrology and water resources engineering. This study employed VARX and VARX–MGARCH approaches in modeling mean and conditional heteroscedasticity of daily rainfall and runoff records in the basin of Zarrineh Rood Dam, Iran. Bivariate diagonal VECH (DVECH) model, as a main type of MGARCH, shows how the conditional variance–covariance and conditional correlation structure vary over the time between residuals series of the fitted VARX. For this purpose, five model fits, which consider different combinations of twofold rainfall and runoff, including both upstream and downstream stations, have been investigated in the present study. The VARX model, with different orders, was applied to the daily rainfall–runoff process of the study area in each of these model fits. The Portmanteau test revealed the existence of conditional heteroscedasticity in the twofold residuals of fitted VARX models. Therefore, the VARX–DVECH model is proposed to capture the heteroscedasticity existing in the daily rainfall–runoff process. The bivariate DVECH model indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance–covariance matrix related to the twofold innovations of rainfall–runoff processes. Furthermore, the evaluation criteria for the VARX–DVECH model revealed the improvement of VARX model performance. 相似文献
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Farshad?Rezaei Mohammad?R.?Ahmadzadeh Hamid?R.?SafaviEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):1941-1956
Groundwater is considered as the most important water resource, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, so it is crucial to impede this source of water to be contaminated. One of the most common methods to assess groundwater vulnerability is DRASTIC method. However, the subjectivity existing in defining DRASTIC weights and ratings as well as inadaptability of the parameters involved in this method with special geology, hydrogeology, land use and climatic conditions have urged researchers to modify this method. In this paper, a new method combining a special type of the neural networks called Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and the traditional DRASTIC model resulting in the hybrid SOM-DRASTIC model is applied to modify and improve DRASTIC Model. The traditional DRASTIC method holds a summation among all negative effects of different factors contributing to vulnerability, while the proposed hybrid method is able of classifying the groundwater vulnerability and deriving the real relation existing between the DRASTIC parameters as the inputs and the vulnerability class as the output of the method. The vulnerability assessment process was performed on the Zayandeh-Rud river basin aquifers in Iran. The SOM-DRASTIC identified the northern parts of the study area as the most vulnerable areas with a drastically fractured structure, while the traditional DRASTIC ranked the western parts as the most vulnerable regions with a high rate of net recharge. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can be used by managers and decision-makers as an alternative robust tool for vulnerability-based classification and land use planning. 相似文献