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Andrea Miano Fatemeh Jalayer Raffaele De Risi Andrea Prota Gaetano Manfredi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(3):699-719
The majority of bridge infrastructures in Italy were built in the 1960s and ‘70s without any specific seismic provision being made. As a consequence, it is expected that these bridges would be highly vulnerable if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that the rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to the bridge infrastructure as a result of such an event could play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region in Italy, this paper demonstrates how both state-of-the-art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and the available data can be used to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred due to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Formulating a probabilistic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo simulation problem helps to resolve the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case study is the use of statistical methods for updating models of: (a) ground motion predictions, (b) vulnerability/fragility and (c) exposure/costs, based on the available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses concerning the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of direct economic losses. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimate of the direct economic losses. 相似文献
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Keyvani Fatemeh Amani Mohammad J. Kalantariasl Azim Vahdani Hossein 《Natural Resources Research》2020,29(3):1857-1874
Natural Resources Research - Measurement and modeling of fluid properties and phase behavior of gas condensate reservoir fluids are challenging tasks. Many researchers proposed various empirical... 相似文献
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Fatemeh Jalayer Domenico Asprone Andrea Prota Gaetano Manfredi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(4):997-1014
The post-earthquake assessment of existing structures can be further complicated by the progressive damage induced by the occurrence of a sequence of aftershocks. This work presents a simple methodology for the calculation of the probability of exceeding a certain limit state in a given interval of time. The time-decaying mean daily rate of occurrence of significant aftershock events is modeled by employing a site-specific aftershock model for the L??Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). The number of aftershock events occurring in a given interval of time elapsed after the main event is modeled using a non-homogenous Poisson model. An equivalent single-degree of freedom structure with cyclic stiffness degradation is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage caused by a sequence of aftershock events. Given the time history of the main-shock and the residual damage caused by it, the probability of exceeding a set of discrete limit states in a given interval of time is calculated. Of particular importance is the time-variant probability of exceeding the limit state in a 24-h (a day) interval of time which can be used as a proxy for the life-safety considerations regarding the re-occupancy of the structure and to complement the results of visual inspections for prioritizing the emergency operations. The method presented herein can also be used in an adaptive manner, progressively conditioned on the time-histories of aftershock events following the main-shock and on the corresponding residual damage caused by them. 相似文献
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Etiology of Salinity and Water Origin,the Main Dilemma of Badab Sourt,a Unique Travertine Spring 
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下载免费PDF全文 Badab Sourt travertine‐depositing springs in the north of Iran, naturally create a unique surreal landscape containing a range of stepped travertine terraces, similarly found only in a few other places on earth. This site comprises of three travertine saline springs with different values of salinity and discharge (SP1, SP2, and SP3) and one non‐travertine fresh karstic spring (SP4) within a distance of about 300 m. The etiology behind this salinity and the water origin are the main research's dilemma that were investigated using geological, hydrochemical, and stable isotopic techniques. Based on the topography and isotopic results, the carbonate formations in northern (Khoshyeilagh and Mobarak) and southern (Cretaceous limestone) parts of the springs potentially provide the initial hydraulic gradient for deep circulation of the water and CO2. However, geological studies indicate that the hydraulic connectivity of the Cretaceous formation to the travertine springs is interrupted by impermeable geological formations. Based on the proposed conceptual hydrogeological model and mass balance calculations, the SP4 spring is locally recharged from the nearby karstic area of Khoshyeilagh formation through shallow, short and steep groundwater flow circulation that is completely different from the travertine springs. The travertine spring (SP1) is recharged from more distant areas having higher altitudes on Mobarak and Khoshyeilagh limestone and circulate more deeply before emerging on the surface. The SP2 and SP3 springs can derive from the mixing of the saline water (SP1) and fresh water (SP4). The dissolution of interlayers of halite in Shemshak formation is concluded as the main source of salinity. This is the first research article in detail to survey hydrogeology of the travertine springs in Iran. 相似文献
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Fatemeh?KarandishEmail author Seyed?Saeed?Mousavi Hossein?Tabari 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):2121-2146
Global greenhouse gases increase could be a threat to sustainable agriculture since it might affect both green water and air temperature. Using the outputs of 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, the projected annual and seasonal precipitation (P) and cardinal temperatures (T) were analyzed for five climatic zones in Iran. In addition, the probable effects of climate change on cereal production were studied using AquaCrop model. Data obtained from the GCMs were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. An uncertainty analysis was done for the projected P and T associated to GCMs and SRES scenarios. Based on station observations, LARS-WG was capable enough for simulating both P and T for all the climatic zones. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project positive P and T changes. In all the climatic zones, wet seasons have a higher P increase than dry seasons, with the highest increase (27.9–83.3%) corresponding to hyper-arid and arid regions. A few GCMs project a P reduction mainly in Mediterranean and hyper-humid climatic regions. The highest increase (11.2–44.5%) in minimum T occurred in Mediterranean climatic regions followed by semi-arid regions in which a concurrent increase in maximum T (2.9–14.6%) occurred. The largest uncertainty in P and cardinal T projection occurred in rainy seasons as well as in hyper-humid regions. The AquaCrop simulation results revealed that the increased cardinal T under global warming will cause 0–28.5% increase in cereal water requirement as well as 0–15% reduction in crop yield leading to 0–30% reduction in water use efficiency in 95% of the country. 相似文献
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Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献