Partial melt in the lowermost mantle near the base of a plume     

Zuihong Zou  Felipe Leyton  Keith D. Koper 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,168(2):809-817

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Measuring and modeling vertical gradients in suspended sediments in the Solimões/Amazon River          下载免费PDF全文

E. Armijos  A. Crave  R. Espinoza  P. Fraizy  A.L.M.R. Dos Santos  F. Sampaio  E. De Oliveira  W. Santini  J.M. Martinez  P. Autin  N. Pantoja  M. Oliveira  N. Filizola 《水文研究》2017,31(3):654-667

Accurately measuring sediment flux in large rivers remains a challenge due to the spatial and temporal cross‐sectional variability of suspended sediment concentrations in conjunction with sampling procedures that fail to accurately quantify these differences. This study presents a field campaign methodology that can be used to improve the measurement of suspended sediment concentrations in the Amazon River or similarly large rivers. The turbidity signal and Rouse model are together used in this study to define the spatial distribution of suspended sediment concentrations in a river cross‐section, taking into account the different size fractions of the sediment. With this methodology, suspended sediment fluxes corresponding to each sediment class are defined with less uncertainty than with manual samples. This paper presents an application of this methodology during a field campaign at different gauging stations along a 3,000‐km stretch of the Solimões/Amazon River during low water and flood periods. Vertical concentration profiles and Rouse model applications for distinctive sediment sizes are explored to determine concentration gradients throughout a cross‐section of the river. The results show that coupling both turbidity technology and the Rouse model may improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of different sediments fractions sizes in the Solimões/Amazon River. These data are very useful in defining a pertinent monitoring strategy for suspended sediment concentrations in the challenging context of large rivers.  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of soil type and root distribution on shallow groundwater resources          下载免费PDF全文

Stefania Grimaldi  Felipe Orellana  Edoardo Daly 《水文研究》2015,29(20):4457-4469

Vegetated, shallow groundwater environments typically have high environmental and economic value. A sound understanding of the complex interactions and feedbacks between surface vegetation and groundwater resources is crucial to managing and maintaining healthy ecosystems while responding to human needs. A vegetated shallow groundwater environment was modelled using the software HYDRUS 2D to investigate the effects of several combinations of soil type and root distributions on shallow groundwater resources. Three rainfall regimes coupled to both natural and anthropogenically affected groundwater conditions were used to investigate the effect that combinations of four soil types and five root distributions can have on (a) groundwater level drops, (b) groundwater depletion, (c) groundwater recharge and (d) water stress conditions. Vegetation with roots distributed across the whole unsaturated zone and vegetation with dimorphic root systems (i.e. roots having larger concentrations both near the surface and the capillary fringe) behaved differently from vegetation growing roots mainly near the saturated zone. Specifically, vegetation with roots in the unsaturated zone caused water‐table drops and groundwater depletions that were half the amount due to deep‐rooted vegetation. Vegetation with a large portion of roots near the soil surface benefited from rainfall and was less vulnerable to water‐table lowering; as such, the fraction of the total area of roots affected by water stress conditions could be 40% smaller than in the case with deep‐rooted vegetation. However, roots uniformly distributed in the unsaturated zone could halve groundwater recharge rates observed in bare soils. Our analysis provided insights that can enable the formulation of site‐ and purpose‐specific management plans to respond to both human and ecosystem water requirements. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Application of the two-stage Markov chain Monte Carlo method for characterization of fractured reservoirs using a surrogate flow model     

Victor Ginting  Felipe Pereira  Michael Presho  Shaochang Wo 《Computational Geosciences》2011,15(4):691-707

In this paper, we develop a procedure for subsurface characterization of a fractured porous medium. The characterization involves sampling from a representation of a fracture’s permeability that has been suitably adjusted to the dynamic tracer cut measurement data. We propose to use a type of dual-porosity, dual-permeability model for tracer flow. This model is built into the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method in which the permeability is sampled. The Bayesian statistical framework is used to set the acceptance criteria of these samples and is enforced through sampling from the posterior distribution of the permeability fields conditioned to dynamic tracer cut data. In order to get a sample from the distribution, we must solve a series of problems which requires a fine-scale solution of the dual model. As direct MCMC is a costly method with the possibility of a low acceptance rate, we introduce a two-stage MCMC alternative which requires a suitable coarse-scale solution method of the dual model. With this filtering process, we are able to decrease our computational time as well as increase the proposal acceptance rate. A number of numerical examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the method.  相似文献   

Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands,Africa     

Sin Chan Chou  Andr&#; de Arruda Lyra  Jorge Lu&#;s Gomes  Daniel Andr&#;s Rodriguez  Minella Alves Martins  Nicole Costa Resende  Priscila da Silva Tavares  Claudine Pereira Dereczynski  Isabel Lopes Pilotto  Alessandro Marques Martins  Lu&#;s Felipe Alves de Carvalho  Jos&#; Luiz Lima Onofre  Idal&#;cio Major  Manuel Penhor  Ad&#;rito Santana 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(9):4021-4042

Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular African country extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels and impacts such as inundation, shore line change, and salt water intrusion into underground aquifers. Projections of climate change have considered coarse model resolutions. The objective of this work is to dynamically downscale the global model projections to 4-km resolution and to assess the climate change in the Sao Tome and Principe islands. The global climate projections are provided by the Canadian Earth System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling is produced by the Eta regional climate model. The baseline period is taken between 1971 and 2000, and the future climate period is taken between 2041 and 2070. The 2-m temperature simulations show good agreement with station data. The model simulates temperature more accurately than precipitation. The precipitation simulations systematically show underestimation and delay of the rainy and the dry seasons by about 1 month, a feature inherited from the global climate model. In the middle of the 21st century, projections show the strongest warming in the elevated parts of the Sao Tome Island, especially in February under RCP8.5. Warmer nights and warmer days become more frequent in the islands when compared with those in the present. While under RCP4.5, precipitation increases in the islands; under RCP8.5, it decreases everywhere in both islands. Heavy precipitation rates should increase, especially in the south-southwestern parts of the Sao Tome islands. Detailed spatial variability of the temperature and precipitation changes in the islands can only be revealed at very high spatial model resolution. Implications for the potential energy production from two major river basins are assessed in this work.  相似文献   

Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia     

Alejandro Dussaillant J.  Wouter Buytaert  Claudio Meier  Fabián Espinoza 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1530-1542

Abstract

The Baker basin (27 000 km²) is located in one of the most pristine and remote areas of the planet. Its hydrological regime is poised to undergo dramatic changes in the near future due to hydropower development and climate change. The basin contains the second-largest lake in South America, and part of a major icefield. This study documents the natural baseline of the Baker River basin, discusses the main hydrological modes and analyses the potential for sustainable management. Annual precipitation varies several-fold from the eastern Patagonian steppes to the North Patagonian Icefield. The westernmost sub-basins are strongly governed by glacier melt with a peak discharge in the austral summer (January–March). The easternmost sub-basins have a much more seasonal response governed by quicker snowmelt in spring (November–December), while they exhibit low flows typical for semi-arid regions during summer and autumn. Topography, vegetation and wetlands may also influence streamflow. The strong spatio-temporal gradients and variability highlight the need for further monitoring, particularly in the headwaters, especially given the severe changes these basins are expected to undergo. The great diversity of hydrological controls and climate change pose significant challenges for hydrological prediction and management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Dussaillant, J.A., Buytaert, W., Meier, C., and Espinoza, F. 2012. Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1530–1542.  相似文献   

Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific,Titicaca and Amazonas drainages     

Waldo Sven Lavado Casimiro  Josyane Ronchail  David Labat  Jhan Carlo Espinoza  Jean Loup Guyot 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):625-642

Abstract

We present a procedure for estimating Q95 low flows in both gauged and ungauged catchments where Q95 is the flow that is exceeded 95% of the time. For each step of the estimation procedure, a number of alternative methods was tested on the Austrian data set by leave-one-out cross-validation, and the method that performed best was used in the final procedure. To maximise the accuracy of the estimates, we combined relevant sources of information including long streamflow records, short streamflow records, and catchment characteristics, according to data availability. Rather than deriving a single low flow estimate for each catchment, we estimated lower and upper confidence limits to allow local information to be incorporated in a practical application of the procedure. The components of the procedure consist of temporal (climate) adjustments for short records; grouping catchments into eight seasonality-based regions; regional regressions of low flows with catchment characteristics; spatial adjustments for exploiting local streamflow data; and uncertainty assessment. The results are maps of lower and upper confidence limits of low flow discharges for 21 000 sub-catchments in Austria.  相似文献   

Fluctuations in the monthly discharge of Guyana Shield rivers,related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability     

D. Labat  J.-C. Espinoza  J. Ronchail  G. Cochonneau  E. de Oliveira  J.C. Doudou 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1081-1091

Abstract

The discharge variability of the main rivers that drain the Guyana Shield is analysed over the last 50 years using cross-wavelet, coherence and composite analysis involving oceanic and atmospheric variables. We highlight the overall hydro-climatological homogeneity of this region that allowed us to focus on the longest discharge time series available. Therefore, a wavelet cross-analysis was carried out between monthly and seasonal Maroni River discharge at the Langa Tabiki station and selected climate indices. This confirms a strong relationship between the hydrology of the Guyana Shield and the Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. There is evidence of intermittent influence, of between inter-annual and near decadal scales, of the Atlantic SST fluctuations, in particular around 1970 and 1990. Finally, we show that the links between oceanic regions and high discharge in the rivers of Guyana are realized through the reinforcement of the Walker and Hadley cells between the Amazon and the adjacent oceans and through decreased trade winds and monsoon flux that favour the persistence of humidity over the Guyana Shield.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Labat, D., Espinoza, J.-C., Ronchail, J., Cochonneau, G., de Oliveira, E., Doudou, J.C. and Guyot, J.-L., 2012. Fluctuations in the monthly discharge of Guyana Shield rivers, related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1081–1091.  相似文献   

A multidimensional fuzzy least-squares regression approach for estimating hydraulic gradients in unconfined aquifer formations and its application to the Gulf Coast aquifer in Goliad County,Texas     

Venkatesh Uddameri  E. Annette Hernandez  Felipe Estrada 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(6):2641-2651

Epistemic uncertainties arise during the estimation of hydraulic gradients in unconfined aquifers due to planar approximation of the water table as well as data gaps arising from factors such as instrument failures and site inaccessibility. A multidimensional fuzzy least-squares regression approach is proposed here to estimate hydraulic gradients in situations where epistemic uncertainty is present in the observed water table measurements. The hydraulic head at a well is treated as a normal (Gaussian) fuzzy variable characterized by a most likely value and a spread. This treatment results in hydraulic gradients being characterized as normal fuzzy numbers as well. The multidimensional fuzzy least-squares regression has an exact analytical form and as such can be implemented easily using matrix algebra methods. However, the method was noted to be sensitive to round-off and truncation errors when the epistemic uncertainties are small. A closeness index based on the cardinality of a fuzzy number is used to evaluate how well the regression model fits the fuzzy hydraulic head observations. A fuzzy Euclidian distance measure is used to compare two fuzzy numbers and to evaluate how fuzziness in the observed hydraulic heads affects the fuzziness in the estimated hydraulic gradients. The Euclidian distance measure is also used to ascertain the influence of each well on the fuzzy hydraulic gradient estimation. The fuzzy regression framework is illustrated by applying it to evaluate hydraulic gradients in the unconfined portion of the Gulf Coast aquifer in Goliad County, TX. The results from the case-study indicate that there is greater uncertainty associated with the estimation of the hydraulic gradients in the vertical (Z-axis) direction. The epistemic uncertainties in the hydraulic head data at the wells have a significant impact on the gradient estimates when they are of the same order of magnitude as the most likely values of the observed heads. The influence analysis indicated that 5 of the 13 wells in the network had a critical influence on at least one of the hydraulic gradients. Three wells along the northeastern section of the study area and bordering the Victoria County were noted to have the least influence on the regression estimates. The fuzzy regression framework along with the associated goodness-of-fit and influence measures provides a useful set of tools to characterize the uncertainties in the hydraulic heads and gradients arising from data gaps and planar water table approximation.  相似文献   

Field Survey of the 2015 Chile Tsunami with Emphasis on Coastal Wetland and Conservation Areas     

Manuel Contreras-López  Patricio Winckler  Ignacio Sepúlveda  Adolfo Andaur-Álvarez  Fernanda Cortés-Molina  Camila J. Guerrero  Cyntia E. Mizobe  Felipe Igualt  Wolfgang Breuer  José F. Beyá  Hernán Vergara  Rodrigo Figueroa-Sterquel 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(2):349-367

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