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Joong-Bae Ahn Sera Jo Myoung-Seok Suh Dong-Hyun Cha Dong-Kyou Lee Song-You Hong Seung-Ki Min Seong-Chan Park Hyun-Suk Kang Kyo-Moon Shim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):223-236
The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection. 相似文献
54.
Myoung-Seok Suh Seok-Geun Oh Young-Suk Lee Joong-Bae Ahn Dong-Hyun Cha Dong-Kyou Lee Song-You Hong Seung-Ki Min Seong-Chan Park Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):151-169
We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution. 相似文献
55.
针对GEO卫星切向轨道分量与双差模糊度强相关的问题,对经典双差动力法进行了改进,提出联合使用载波相位和相位平滑伪距实现北斗系统精密定轨,并从理论上分析了以上处理策略的可行性及对模糊度固定的影响,然后结合北斗系统精密定轨特点,推导给出了利用QIF方法实现北斗卫星双差模糊度固定的基本原理,实测数据分析表明:联合载波相位和相位平滑伪距,既可降低相关性,又可兼顾精度,定轨效果优于经典双差动力法;利用QIF方法能够取得一定的模糊度固定效果,但受观测条件限制,北斗卫星双差模糊度固定成功率整体不高,双差模糊度固定之后对轨道的改进作用有限。 相似文献
56.
Griliches’ knowledge production function has been increasingly adopted at the regional level where location-specific conditions drive the spatial differences in knowledge creation dynamics. However, the large majority of such studies rely on a traditional regression approach that assumes spatially homogenous marginal effects of knowledge input factors. This paper extends the authors’ previous work (Kang and Dall’erba in Int Reg Sci Rev, 2015. doi: 10.1177/0160017615572888) to investigate the spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects by using nonparametric local modeling approaches such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mixed GWR with two distinct samples of the US Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and non-MSA counties. The results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects of the knowledge input variables, more specifically for the local and distant spillovers of private knowledge measured across MSA counties. On the other hand, local academic knowledge spillovers are found to display spatially homogenous elasticities in both MSA and non-MSA counties. Our results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each county’s innovation capacity and suggest policy implications for regional innovation strategies. 相似文献
57.
δ~(18)O variations;;ice core;;outgoing longwave radiation;;meridional wind;;northeastern Tibetan Plateau 相似文献
58.
Jeongwon Kang Han Jun Woo Seok Jang Kap-Sik Jeong Hoi-Soo Jung Ha Gi Hwang Jun-Ho Lee Jin Hyung Cho 《Ocean Science Journal》2016,51(3):305-316
Rare earth elements (REEs: La-Lu) in surface sediments collected from the mouth and middle tidal flats of Gomso Bay, South Korea, in August 2011 and May 2012 were analyzed to investigate the fine-grained sediment provenance. The upper continental crust (UCC)-normalized light REEs (LREEs: La to Nd) were more enriched than the middle REEs (MREEs: Sm to Dy) and heavy REEs (HREEs: Ho to Lu), resulting in large (La/Yb)UCC (1.9 ± 0.4) to (Gd/Yb)UCC (1.4 ± 0.2) ratios. The monthly (La/Yb)UCC values differed between the mouth and middle tidal flats due to deposition of fine-grained sediments that originated from distant rivers (the Geum and Yeongsan) and the Jujin Stream, located on the southern shore of the inner bay. We observed relative reductions in the (La/Yb)UCC value and REE content in the sediments from the mouth of the bay compared with those from Jujin Stream sediments. Confined to the middle tidal flat around the KH Line of Jujin Stream, the sediments, most enriched in LREEs but depleted in Eu, were distributed in August as strong Jujin Stream runs. Here, we suggest that an increase in LREE/HREE and decrease in MREE/LREE ratios can be used as a proxy to identify the Jujin Stream provenance in mixed riverine sediments and to trace Jujin Stream sediments within the Gomso Bay tidal flat, especially in the summer rainy season. 相似文献
59.
Genetic stock identification studies have been widely applied to Pacific salmon species to estimate stock composition of complex mixed-stock fisheries. In a September-October 2004 survey, 739 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) specimens were collected from 23 stations in the western Bering Sea. We determined the genetic stock composition of immature chum salmon based on the previous mitochondria DNA baseline. Each regional estimate was computed based on the conditional maximum likelihood method using 1,000 bootstrap resampling and then pooled to the major regional groups: Korea - Japan - Primorie (KJP) / Russia (RU) / Northwest Alaska (NWA) / Alaska Peninsula - Southcentral Alaska - Southeast Alaska - British Columbia - Washington (ONA). The stock composition of immature chum salmon in the western Bering Sea was a mix of 0.424 KJP, 0.421 RU, 0.116 NWA, and 0.039 ONA stocks. During the study period, the contribution of Asian chum salmon stocks gradually changed from RU to KJP stock. In addition, North American populations from NWA and ONA were small but present near the vicinity of the Russian coast and the Commander Islands, suggesting that the study areas in the western Bering Sea were an important migration route for Pacific chum salmon originating both from Asia and North America during the months of September and October. These results make it possible to better understand the chum salmon stock composition of the mixed-stock fisheries in the western Bering Sea and the stock-specific distribution pattern of chum salmon on the high-seas. 相似文献
60.
We examined the effects of crude oil contamination on community assemblages of meiofauna and nematodes after exposure to total petroleum hydrocarbons in the laboratory. We administered a seawater solution that had been contaminated with total petroleum hydrocarbons to seven treatment groups at different concentrations, while the control group received uncontaminated filtered seawater. The average density of total meiofauna in the experimental microcosms diluted with 0.5%, 1%, 2%, and 4% contaminated seawater was higher than the density in the control. The average density of total meiofauna in the 8%, 15%, and 20% microcosms was lower than the density in the control. The density of nematodes was similar to that of the total meiofauna. Cluster analysis divided the microcosms into group 1 (control, 0.5%, 1%, 2%, and 4% microcosms) and group 2 (8%, 15%, and 20% microcosms). However, SIMPROF analysis showed no significant difference between the two groups (p > 0.05). Bolbolaimus spp. (37.1%) were dominant among the nematodes. Cluster analysis showed similar results for nematode and meiofaunal communities. The total meiofaunal density, nematode density, and number of Bolbolaimus spp. individuals were significantly negatively associated with the concentration of total petroleum hydrocarbons (Spearman correlation coefficients, p < 0.05). Within the nematodes, epistrate feeders (group 2A: 46%) were the most abundant trophic group. Among the treatment groups, the abundance of group 2A increased in low-concentration microcosms and decreased in high-concentration microcosms. Thus, our findings provide information on the effects of oil pollution on meiofauna in the intertidal zones of sandy beaches. 相似文献