Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework          下载免费PDF全文

Ype van der Velde  Nikki Vercauteren  Fernando Jaramillo  Stefan C. Dekker  Georgia Destouni  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4110-4118

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal          下载免费PDF全文

Claudia Carvalho‐Santos  João Pedro Nunes  António T. Monteiro  Lars Hein  João Pradinho Honrado 《水文研究》2016,30(5):720-738

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ichthyoplankton spatial distribution and its relation with water column stratification in fjords of southern Chile (46°48′–50°09′S) in austral spring 1996 and 2008     

Claudia A. Bustos  Mauricio F. Landaeta  Fernando Balbontín 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(3-4):293-303

The occidental shore of the southern tip of South America is one of the largest estuarine ecosystems around the world. Although demersal finfish fisheries are currently in full exploitation in the area, the fjords south of 47°S have been poorly investigated. Two bio-oceanographic cruises carried out in austral spring 1996 and 2008 between 47°S and 50°09′S were utilized to investigate the spatial distribution of fish eggs and larvae. Small differences in the environmental conditions were identified in the top 200 m of the water column between years (5.3–10.5 °C and 0.7–33.9 units of salinity in October 1996; 6.3–11.5 °C and 1.2–34.2 units of salinity in November 2008). The low salinity surface layer generated a highly stable water column within the fjords (Brunt–Väisälä frequency, N>0.1 rad/s; wave period <60 s), whereas a well-mixed water column occurred in the gulfs and open channels. For both years, the ichthyoplankton analysis showed that early life stages of lightfish Maurolicus parvipinnis were dominant (>75% total eggs and >70% total larvae) and they were collected throughout the area, irrespective of the water column stratification. However, other components of the ichthyoplankton such as Falkland sprat Sprattus fuegensis, rockfish Sebastes oculatus, and hoki Macruronus magellanicus were more abundant and found in a wider range of larval sizes in less stable waters (N<0.1 rad/s). Oceanic taxa such as myctophids (Lampanyctodes hectoris) and gonostomatids (Cyclothone sp.) were collected exclusively in open waters. The October 1996 observation of Engraulis ringens eggs in plankton samples corresponded to the southernmost record of early stages of this fish in the Pacific Ocean. We found a significant negative relationship between the number of larval species and N, and a significant positive relationship between the number of larval species and wave period. Therefore, only some marine fish species are capable to utilize fjords systems as spawning and nursery grounds in areas having high amounts of freshwater discharges and very high vertical stratification during austral spring season.  相似文献   

Comparing landslide susceptibility models in the Río El Estado watershed on the SW flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano,Mexico     

Gabriel Legorreta Paulín  Solène Pouget  Marcus Bursik  Fernando Aceves Quesada  Trevor Contreras 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):127-139

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Lake sedimentary processes and vegetation changes over the last 45k cal a bp in the uplands of south-eastern Amazonia     

José Tasso Felix Guimarães  Prafulla Kumar Sahoo  Mariana Maha Jana Costa De Figueiredo  Karen da Silva Lopes  Markus Gastauer  Silvio Junio Ramos  Cecilio Frois Caldeira  Pedro Walfir M. Souza-Filho  Luiza Santos Reis  Marcio Sousa Da Silva  Paulo Rogenes Pontes  Renato Oliveira Da Silva Junior  Tarcísio Magevski Rodrigues 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(2):255-272

This study addresses paleoclimate influences in a southern Amazonia ecotone based on multiproxy records from lakes of the Carajás region during the last 45k cal a bp. Wet and cool environmental conditions marked the initial deposition in shallow depressions with detrital sediments and high weathering rates until 40k cal a bp. Concomitantly, forest and C3 canga plants, along with cool-adapted taxa, developed; however, short drier episodes enabled expansion of C4 plants and diagenetic formation of siderite. A massive event of siderite formation occurred approximately 30k cal a bp under strong drier conditions. Afterwards, wet and cool environmental conditions returned and persisted until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM was marked by lake-level lowstands and subaerial exposure. The transition from the LGM to the Holocene is marked by the onset of oscillations in temperature and humidity, with an expansion of forest and canga plants. Cool taxa were present for the last time in the Carajás region ~ 9.5–9k cal a bp. After 10k cal a bp , shallow lakes became upland swamps due to natural infilling processes, but the current vegetation types and structures of the plateaus were acquired only after 3k cal a bp under wetter climatic conditions.  相似文献   

Upper Cretaceous marine‐continental transition (Leonese Area,NW Spain) defined from integrated outcrop and seismic stratigraphy     

Antonio Herrero‐Hernndez  Fernando Gmez‐Fernndez  Francisco Javier Lpez‐Moro 《Geological Journal》2015,50(1):39-55

The Upper Cretaceous succession of the Leonese Area (NW Spain) comprises mixed clastic and carbonate sediments. This succession is divided into two lithostratigraphic units, the Voznuevo Member and the Boñar Formation, which represent fluvial, shoreface, intertidal, subtidal and open‐shelf sedimentary environments. Regional seismic interpretation and sequence stratigraphic analysis have allowed the study of lateral and vertical changes in the sedimentary record and the definition of third‐order levels of stratigraphic cyclicity. On the basis of these data, the succession can be divided into two second‐order depositional sequences (DS‐1 and DS‐2), incorporating three system tracts in a lowstand to transgressive to highstand system tract succession (LST–TST–HST). These sequences are composed of fluvial systems at the base with palaeocurrents that flowed westward and south‐westward. The upper part of DS‐1 (Late Albian–Middle Turonian) shows evidence of intertidal to subtidal and offshore deposits. DS‐2 (Late Turonian–Campanian) comprises intertidal to subtidal, tidal flat, shallow marine and lacustrine deposits and interbedded fluvial deposits. Two regressive–transgressive cycles occurred in the area related to eustatic controls. The evolution of the basin can be explained by base‐level changes and associated shifts in depositional trends of successive retrogradational episodes. By using isobath and isopach maps, the main palaeogeographic features of DS‐1 and DS‐2 were constrained, namely coastline positions, the existence and orientation of corridors through which fluvial networks were channelled and the location of the main depocentres of the basin. Sedimentation on the Upper Cretaceous marine platform was mainly controlled by (i) oscillations of sea level and (ii) the orientation of Mesozoic faults, which induced sedimentation along depocentres. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Using a regional numerical weather prediction model for GNSS positioning over Brazil     

Daniele Barroca Marra Alves  Luiz Fernando Sapucci  Haroldo Antonio Marques  Eniuce Menezes de Souza  Tayná Aparecida Ferreira Gouveia  Jackes Akira Magário 《GPS Solutions》2016,20(4):677-685

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) can provide centimeter positioning accuracy at low costs. However, in order to obtain the desired high accuracy, it is necessary to use high-quality atmospheric models. We focus on the troposphere, which is an important topic of research in Brazil where the tropospheric characteristics are unique, both spatially and temporally. There are dry regions, which lie mainly in the central part of the country. However, the most interesting area for the investigation of tropospheric models is the wet region which is located in the Amazon forest. This region substantially affects the variability of humidity over other regions of Brazil. It provides a large quantity of water vapor through the humidity convergence zone, especially for the southeast region. The interconnection and large fluxes of water vapor can generate serious deficiencies in tropospheric modeling. The CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Brazilian Institute for Space Research) has been providing since July 2012 a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for South America, known as Eta. It has yield excellent results in weather prediction but has not been used in GNSS positioning. This NWP model was evaluated in precise point positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP, the best positioning results were obtained for the station SAGA, located in Amazon region. Using the NWP model, the 3D RMS are less than 10 cm for all 24 h of data, whereas the values reach approximately 60 cm for the Hopfield model. For network-based positioning, the best results were obtained mainly when the tropospheric characteristics are critical, in which case an improvement of up to 7.2 % was obtained in 3D RMS using NWP models.  相似文献   

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study     

Anabele Lindner  Cira Souza Pitombo  Samille Santos Rocha  José Alberto Quintanilha 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(4):245-254

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.  相似文献   

A local-scale approach to estuarine flood risk management   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Paula Freire  Alexandre O. Tavares  Luís Sá  Anabela Oliveira  André B. Fortunato  Pedro P. dos Santos  Ana Rilo  João L. Gomes  João Rogeiro  Rui Pablo  Pedro J. Pinto 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(3):1705-1739

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Ontogenic variation and effect of collection procedure on leaf biomechanical properties of Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile          下载免费PDF全文

Carmen B. de los Santos  Bárbara Vicencio‐Rammsy  Gilles Lepoint  François Remy  Tjeerd J. Bouma  Sylvie Gobert 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(4):750-759

Leaf mechanical traits are important to understand how aquatic plants fracture and deform when subjected to abiotic (currents or waves) or biotic (herbivory attack) mechanical forces. The likely occurrence of variation during leaf ontogeny in these traits may thus have implications for hydrodynamic performance and vulnerability to herbivory damage, and may be associated with changes in morphologic and chemical traits. Seagrasses, marine flowering plants, consist of shoot bundles holding several leaves with different developmental stages, in which outer older leaves protect inner younger leaves. In this study we examined the long‐lived seagrass Posidonia oceanica to determine ontogenic variation in mechanical traits across leaf position within a shoot, representing different developmental stages. Moreover, we investigated whether or not the collection procedure (classical uprooted shoot versus non‐destructive shoot method: cutting the shoot without a portion of rhizome) and time span after collection influence mechanical measurements. Neither collection procedure nor time elapsed within 48 h of collection affected measurements of leaf biomechanical traits when seagrass shoots were kept moist in dark cool conditions. Ontogenic variation in mechanical traits in P. oceanica leaves over intermediate and adult developmental stages was observed: leaves weakened and lost stiffness with aging, while mid‐aged leaves (the longest and thickest ones) were able to withstand higher breaking forces. In addition, younger leaves had higher nitrogen content and lower fiber content than older leaves. The observed patterns may explain fine‐scale within‐shoot ecological processes of leaves at different developmental stages, such as leaf shedding and herbivory consumption in P. oceanica.  相似文献