Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of GNSS-derived ZTD estimates in Nigeria     

Isioye  Olalekan Adekunle  Combrinck  Ludwig  Botai  Joel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(3-4):1099-1116

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study presents an in-depth analysis to comprehend the spatial and temporal variability of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) over Nigeria during the period...  相似文献   

Learning from CDM SD tool experience for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement     

Karen Holm Olsen  Christof Arens  Florian Mersmann 《Climate Policy》2018,18(4):383-395

The Paris Agreement (PA) emphasizes the intrinsic relationship between climate change and sustainable development (SD) and welcomes the 2030 agenda for the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, there is a lack of assessment approaches to ensure that climate and development goals are achieved in an integrated fashion and trade-offs avoided. Article 6.4 of the PA introduces a new Sustainable Mitigation Mechanism (SMM) with the dual aim to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and foster SD. The Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a similar objective and in 2014, the CDM SD tool was launched by the Executive Board of the CDM to highlight the SD benefits of CDM activities. This article analyses the usefulness of the CDM SD tool for stakeholders and compares the SD tool’s SD reporting requirements against other flexible mechanisms and multilateral standards to provide recommendations for improvement. A key conclusion is that the Paris Agreement’s SMM has a stronger political mandate than the CDM to measure that SD impacts are ‘real, measurable and long-term’. Recommendations for an improved CDM SD tool are a relevant starting point to develop rules, modalities, and procedures for SD assessment in Article 6.4 as well as for other cooperative mitigation approaches.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Research findings are relevant for developing the rulebook of modalities and procedures for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which introduces a new mechanism for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development. Lessons learnt from the CDM SD tool and recommendations for enhanced SD assessment are discussed in context of Article 6 cooperative approaches, and make a timely contribution to inform negotiations on the rulebook agreed by the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.  相似文献   

3‐D hydrodynamic simulations of the solar chromosphere     

S. Wedemeyer  B. Freytag  M. Steffen  H.‐G. Ludwig  H. Holweger 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2003,324(4):410-411

We present first results of three‐dimensional numerical simulations of the non‐magnetic solar chromosphere, computed with the radiation hydrodynamics code CO⁵BOLD. Acoustic waves which are excited at the top of the convection zone propagate upwards into the chromosphere where the waves steepen into shocks. The interaction of the waves leads to the formation of complex structures which evolve on short time scales. Consequently, the model chromosphere is highly dynamical, inhomogeneous, and thermally bifurcated.  相似文献   

Altimetry-derived tide model for improved tide and water level forecasting along the European continental shelf     

Hart-Davis  Michael G.  Laan  Stendert  Schwatke  Christian  Backeberg  Björn  Dettmering  Denise  Zijl  Firmijn  Verlaan  Martin  Passaro  Marcello  Seitz  Florian 《Ocean Dynamics》2023,73(8):475-491

Ocean Dynamics - With the continued rise in global mean sea level, operational predictions of tidal height and total water levels have become crucial for accurate estimations and understanding of...  相似文献   

Water Table Uncertainties due to Uncertainties in Structure and Properties of an Unconfined Aquifer          下载免费PDF全文

Juerg Hauser  Florian Wellmann  Mike Trefry 《Ground water》2018,56(2):251-265

We consider two sources of geology‐related uncertainty in making predictions of the steady‐state water table elevation for an unconfined aquifer. That is the uncertainty in the depth to base of the aquifer and in the hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Stochastic approaches to hydrological modeling commonly use geostatistical techniques to account for hydraulic conductivity uncertainty within the aquifer. In the absence of well data allowing derivation of a relationship between geophysical and hydrological parameters, the use of geophysical data is often limited to constraining the structural boundaries. If we recover the base of an unconfined aquifer from an analysis of geophysical data, then the associated uncertainties are a consequence of the geophysical inversion process. In this study, we illustrate this by quantifying water table uncertainties for the unconfined aquifer formed by the paleochannel network around the Kintyre Uranium deposit in Western Australia. The focus of the Bayesian parametric bootstrap approach employed for the inversion of the available airborne electromagnetic data is the recovery of the base of the paleochannel network and the associated uncertainties. This allows us to then quantify the associated influences on the water table in a conceptualized groundwater usage scenario and compare the resulting uncertainties with uncertainties due to an uncertain hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Our modeling shows that neither uncertainties in the depth to the base of the aquifer nor hydraulic conductivity uncertainties alone can capture the patterns of uncertainty in the water table that emerge when the two are combined.  相似文献   

Anisotropic dual-continuum representations for multiscale poroelastic materials: Development and numerical modelling     

Mark Ashworth  Florian Doster 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(17):2304-2328

Dual-continuum (DC) models can be tractable alternatives to explicit approaches for the numerical modelling of multiscale materials with multiphysics behaviours. This work concerns the conceptual and numerical modelling of poroelastically coupled dual-scale materials such as naturally fractured rock. Apart from a few exceptions, previous poroelastic DC models have assumed isotropy of the constituents and the dual-material. Additionally, it is common to assume that only one continuum has intrinsic stiffness properties. Finally, little has been done into validating whether the DC paradigm can capture the global poroelastic behaviours of explicit numerical representations at the DC modelling scale. We address the aforementioned knowledge gaps in two steps. First, we utilise a homogenisation approach based on Levin's theorem to develop a previously derived anisotropic poroelastic constitutive model. Our development incorporates anisotropic intrinsic stiffness properties of both continua. This addition is in analogy to anisotropic fractured rock masses with stiff fractures. Second, we perform numerical modelling to test the DC model against fine-scale explicit equivalents. In doing, we present our hybrid numerical framework, as well as the conditions required for interpretation of the numerical results. The tests themselves progress from materials with isotropic to anisotropic mechanical and flow properties. The fine-scale simulations show that anisotropy can have noticeable effects on deformation and flow behaviour. However, our numerical experiments show that the DC approach can capture the global poroelastic behaviours of both isotropic and anisotropic fine-scale representations.  相似文献   

How Different Analysis and Interpolation Methods Affect the Accuracy of Ice Surface Elevation Changes Inferred from Satellite Altimetry     

Strößenreuther  Undine  Horwath  Martin  Schröder  Ludwig 《Mathematical Geosciences》2020,52(4):499-525

Satellite altimetry has been widely used to determine surface elevation changes in polar ice sheets. The original height measurements are irregularly distributed in space and time. Gridded surface elevation changes are commonly derived by repeat altimetry analysis (RAA) and subsequent spatial interpolation of height change estimates. This article assesses how methodological choices related to those two steps affect the accuracy of surface elevation changes, and how well this accuracy is represented by formal uncertainties. In a simulation environment resembling CryoSat-2 measurements acquired over a region in northeast Greenland between December 2010 and January 2014, different local topography modeling approaches and different cell sizes for RAA, and four interpolation approaches are tested. Among the simulated cases, the choice of either favorable or unfavorable RAA affects the accuracy of results by about a factor of 6, and the different accuracy levels are propagated into the results of interpolation. For RAA, correcting local topography by an external digital elevation model (DEM) is best, if a very precise DEM is available, which is not always the case. Yet the best DEM-independent local topography correction (nine-parameter model within a 3,000 m diameter cell) is comparable to the use of a perfect DEM, which exactly represents the ice sheet topography, on the same cell size. Interpolation by heterogeneous measurement-error-filtered kriging is significantly more accurate (on the order of 50% error reduction) than interpolation methods, which do not account for heterogeneous errors.

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Improved performance‐based seismic assessment of buildings by utilizing Bayesian statistics          下载免费PDF全文

Omid Esmaili  Lisa Grant Ludwig  Farzin Zareian 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(4):581-597

This paper addresses two important issues of concern to practicing engineers and researchers alike in application of performance‐based seismic assessment (PBSA) methodology on buildings: (i) the number of ground motion records required to exercise PBSA—current practice (FEMA P‐58‐1) requires eleven or more pairs of motions for this purpose, and (ii) the time and effort associated with performing the number of nonlinear response history analyses required to exercise PBSA. We present a method for exercising of PBSA that employs classical linear modal analysis to develop a first estimate (i.e., a priori) of probability distribution of loss, followed by utilizing Bayesian statistics to update this estimate using estimates of loss obtained by utilizing a small number of nonlinear response history analyses of a detailed model of the building (i.e., posterior). The proposed technique is used to assess the distribution of monetary loss of two case studies, a 4‐story reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame building and a 20‐story steel moment‐resisting frame building, both located in Los Angeles, for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The efficiency of the proposed PBSA method is demonstrated by showing the similarity between the distribution of monetary loss at each story of case study buildings obtained from the traditional/sophisticated PBSA methodology and the proposed PBSA method in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of Zostera noltei meadows on sediment dynamics: application to the Arcachon lagoon     

Katerina Kombiadou  Florian Ganthy  Romaric Verney  Martin Plus  Aldo Sottolichio 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(10):1499-1516

A three-dimensional model has been modified to describe the complex interactions between hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics and biological parameters in the presence of Zostera noltei. The model treats seagrass leafs as flexible blades that bend under hydrodynamic forcing and alter the local momentum and turbulence fluxes and, therefore, the benthic shear conditions; these changes cause related changes to the mass balance at the boundary of the bed, in turn affecting the suspended matter in the column and ultimately primary productivity and the growth of the dwarf-grass. Modelling parameters related to the impact of Z. noltei to the local flow and to erosion and deposition rates were calibrated using flume experimental measurements; results from the calibration of the model are presented and discussed. The coupled model is applied in the Arcachon Bay, an area with high environmental significance and large abundance of dwarf-grass meadows. In the present paper, results from preliminary applications of the model are presented and discussed; the effectiveness of the coupled model is assessed comparing modelling results with available field measurements of suspended sediment concentrations and seagrass growth parameters. The model generally reproduces sediment dynamics and dwarf-grass seasonal growth in the domain efficiently. Investigations regarding the effects of the vegetation to the near-bed hydrodynamics and to the sediment suspension in the domain show that dwarf-grass meadows play an important part to velocity attenuation and to sediment stabilisation, with flow and suspended sediment concentrations damping, compared to an unvegetated state, to reach 35–50 and 65 %, respectively, at peak seagrass growth.  相似文献   

Removal of uranium(VI) from the aqueous phase by iron(II) minerals in presence of bicarbonate     

Simona Regenspurg  Dieter Schild  Thorsten Schfer  Florian Huber  Maria E. Malmstrm 《Applied Geochemistry》2009,24(9):1617-1625

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