A Functional Data Analysis Approach to Surrogate Modeling in Reservoir and Geomechanics Uncertainty Quantification     

Francesca Bottazzi  Ernesto Della Rossa 《Mathematical Geosciences》2017,49(4):517-540

Uncertainty quantification for geomechanical and reservoir predictions is in general a computationally intensive problem, especially if a direct Monte Carlo approach with large numbers of full-physics simulations is used. A common solution to this problem, well-known for the fluid flow simulations, is the adoption of surrogate modeling approximating the physical behavior with respect to variations in uncertain parameters. The objective of this work is the quantification of such uncertainty both within geomechanical predictions and fluid-flow predictions using a specific surrogate modeling technique, which is based on a functional approach. The methodology realizes an approximation of full-physics simulated outputs that are varying in time and space when uncertainty parameters are changed, particularly important for the prediction of uncertainty in vertical displacement resulting from geomechanical modeling. The developed methodology has been applied both to a subsidence uncertainty quantification example and to a real reservoir forecast risk assessment. The surrogate quality obtained with these applications confirms that the proposed method makes it possible to perform reliable time–space varying dependent risk assessment with a low computational cost, provided the uncertainty space is low-dimensional.  相似文献   

Experimental characterization,design and modelling of the RBRL seismic‐isolation system for lightweight structures          下载免费PDF全文

Marco Donà  Alan Hugh Muhr  Giovanni Tecchio  Francesca da Porto 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(5):831-853

The Rolling‐Ball Rubber‐Layer (RBRL) system was developed to enable seismic isolation of lightweight structures, such as special equipment or works of art, and is very versatile, a great range of equivalent natural frequencies and coefficients of damping being achievable through choice of the system parameters. The necessity to have a simple and effective design procedure has led to a new parametric experimentation at Tun Abdul Razak Research Centre (TARRC) on the rolling behaviour of the RBRL system and load–deflection behaviour of the recentering springs. The experimental results, together with theories for the rolling resistance of a loaded steel ball on a thin rubber layer and the lateral load–deflection behaviour of cylindrical rubber springs, are used to develop a general design method for the RBRL system, which allows the system to be tailored to the specific application. Sinusoidal test results are presented for the small‐deflection behaviour of the system, influenced by the presence of a viscoelastic depression on the rubber tracks beneath each ball, and an amplitude‐dependent time‐domain model is proposed, based on these results and on the steady‐state behaviour of the system. The model is validated through comparison with previously performed shaking‐table tests. Attention is here restricted to uniaxial behaviour. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A multi‐performance design method for seismic upgrading of existing RC frames by BRBs          下载免费PDF全文

Francesca Barbagallo  Melina Bosco  Edoardo M. Marino  Pier Paolo Rossi  Paola R. Stramondo 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(7):1099-1119

In the world, many existing buildings with RC framed structure were designed according to old seismic standards and present structural deficiencies. Buckling Restrained Braces (BRBs) can be effective for seismic upgrading of these structures, as pointed out by many studies. Nevertheless, Eurocode 8 (EC8) does not provide any rules for design of BRBs. This lack represents a big obstacle for application of this seismic upgrading technique in Europe. For this reason, a method for the design of seismic upgrading interventions by BRBs is proposed in this paper. The method is obtained as the best between two variants developed, investigated and compared in this paper. Based on a numerical investigation, the parameters that control the design method are calibrated to ensure the fulfillment of the Near Collapse performance objective stipulated in EC8. Finally, the capability of the proposed design method in fulfilling also performance objectives not explicitly considered in design is investigated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Use of the Beta-Dagum and Beta-Singh-Maddala distributions for modeling hydrologic data     

Filippo?Domma  Francesca?CondinoEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):799-813

Starting from a recent paper by Murshed (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25:897–911, 2011) in which a good performance of the Beta-k distribution in analyzing extreme hydrologic events is shown, in this paper, we propose the use of two new four-parameters distribution functions strongly related to the Beta-k distribution, namely the Beta-Dagum and the Beta-Singh-Maddala distributions. More in detail, the new distributions are a generalization of a reparametrization of Beta-k and Beta-p distributions, respectively. For these distributions some particular interpretations in terms of maximum and minimum of sequences of random variables can be derived and the maximal and minimal domain of attraction can be obtained. Moreover, the method of maximum likelihood, the method of moments and the method of L-moments are examined to estimate the parameters. Finally, two different applications on real data regarding maxima and minima of river flows are reported, in order to show the potentiality of these two models in the extreme events analysis.  相似文献   

The upper Miocene diatomaceous sediments of the northernmost Mediterranean region: A lamina-scale investigation of an overlooked palaeoceanographic archive     

Luca Pellegrino  Francesco Dela Pierre  Richard W. Jordan  Kenta Abe  Yuta Mikami  Marcello Natalicchio  Rocco Gennari  Francesca Lozar  Giorgio Carnevale 《Sedimentology》2020,67(7):3389-3421

During the late Miocene the Mediterranean experienced a dramatic intensification of opaline accumulation, recorded by the deposition of diatomaceous sediments. The fine lamination of these deposits potentially records annual to sub-annual palaeoceanographic processes that occurred during a critical phase of the geodynamic evolution of the Mediterranean basin, which eventually led to the Messinian salinity crisis. The diatomaceous facies has been interpreted by previous researchers as the product of intensified upwelling currents and of bottom anoxia formation in the Mediterranean basin. However, until now, no efforts have been made to unravel the sedimentological and micropalaeontological content of these deposits at the lamina-scale. This paper presents the first case study of a systematic scanning electron microscope-based morphological investigation of the diatomaceous sediments deposited during the late Miocene at the northernmost offshoot of the Mediterranean basin (Piedmont Basin, north-west Italy). Using a non-invasive analytical approach, six faciological components (laminae, laminated packets, non-laminated intervals, burrows, opal-rich aggregates and mixed pelletal structures) and their relationships are described and interpreted herein. Following the lamina-scale study of these sediments, an annual sedimentary cycle could be identified and an accumulation rate (ca 50 cm kyr⁻¹) inferred that is atypical for a setting actively influenced by upwelling. The role played by the entanglement of diatom valves in creating a physical barrier to the bioturbation is here emphasized as the main process responsible for the preservation of the laminated fabric of diatomaceous sediments, challenging the supposed role of deep anoxia. These results suggest that the late Miocene diatomaceous deposition in the Piedmont Basin cannot be univocally considered as a by-product of upwelling intensification and seafloor oxygen depletion.  相似文献   

Horashim East: a newly discovered Middle Palaeolithic site in central Israel     

Ella Assaf  Viviane Slon  Francesca Romagnoli 《第四纪科学杂志》2022,37(1):1-5

Horashim East is a newly discovered Middle Palaeolithic open-air occurrence in central Israel, revealed during a thematic prehistoric survey. Hundreds of lithic items were found, including an early-stage biface, Levallois cores and products. As only a few open-air settlements are known from the Middle Palaeolithic Levant, the discovery of Horashim East sheds new light on human land-use patterns during this period and reinforces the notion that central-eastern Israel was favourable for human settlement throughout the Palaeolithic.  相似文献