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This study investigates how estimates of uranium endowment made by a geologist using an appraisal system that is based upon a formalization of geoscience and decision rules compare with estimates made by informal and unconstrained intuitive processes. The motivation for this study derives from the premise that formalization of decisions would mitigate the heuristic biases and hedging that may result from the use of unconstrained intuitive processes. Estimates of the uranium endowment of the San Juan Basin of New Mexico by four methodologies are compared in this study. These methods, ranked from top to bottom by degree of decomposition (mitigating of heuristic bias)and control on hedging, are as follows Implicit 2 1.5 × 106 s.t. of U3O8 Implicit 1 1.6 × 106 s.t. of U3O8 NURE (1980) 2.4 × 106 s.t. of U3O8 Appraisal system 3.9 × 106 s.t. of U3O8 The magnitude of expected uranium endowment estimated by these methods, ranked from smallest to largest, is in this same order. With the exception of the NURE estimates, the magnitude of the variance (uncertainty)of uranium endowment, ranked from smallest to largest, also is in this same order. These results prompt the suggestion that the more decomposed and formalized the estimation procedure, the greater the expected value and the variance of uranium endowment. Equivalently, predicating U 3 O 8 endowment estimation strictly upon that part of the geologist's geoscience that is useful in making U 3 O 8 endowment estimates and upon his understanding of the region's history produced larger estimates than have previously been reported. However, this method of estimation also shows that uncertainty about the actual state of U 3 O 8 endowment is much greater than previously described. 相似文献
44.
L. M. Leslie M. Leplastrier B. W. Buckley L. Qi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2005,89(1-4):207-214
Summary The purpose of this paper is to present a recently developed climatology of explosively developing south eastern Tasman Sea extra-tropical cyclones, or meteorological “bombs”, using a latitude dependent definition for meteorological bombs based on that of Simmonds and Keay (2000a, b), and Lim and Simmonds (2002). These highly transient systems, which have a damaging impact upon New Zealand, are frequently accompanied by destructive winds, flood rains, and coastal storm surges. Two cases are selected from the climatology and briefly described here. The first case study is the major flood and storm force wind event of June 20 to 21, 2002 that affected the Coromandel Peninsula region of the North Island of New Zealand. The second case was a “supercyclone” bomb that developed well to the southwest of New Zealand region during May 29 to 31, 2004, but which could easily have formed in the New Zealand region with catastrophic consequences. It was well-captured by the new high resolution Quikscat scatterometer instrument.This study extends the work of two of the authors (Buckley and Leslie, 2004; Buckley and Leslie, 2000; Qi and Leslie, 2000), on southern hemisphere meteorological bombs, to yet another geographical location. Here, we relied heavily on surface observations, scatterometer and other satellite-derived data, and weather radar imagery in developing the climatology. 相似文献
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Incoherent scatter radars are designed to detect scatter from thermalfluctuations in the ionosphere. These fluctuations contain, among other things,features associated with ion-acoustic waves driven by random motions within theplasma. The resulting spectra are generally broad and noisy, but neverthelessthe technique can, through a detailed analysis of spectra, be used to measure arange of physical parameters in the Earth's upper atmosphere, and provides apowerful diagnostic in studies of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,thermosphere dynamics and the geospace environment in general. In recent yearsthere has been much interest in naturally occurring (as opposed to artificiallystimulated) enhanced ion-acoustic spectra seen in the auroral zone andcusp/cleft region. A study of the plasma instability processes that lead tosuch spectra will help us to better understand auroral particle acceleration,wave-particle and wave-wave interactions in the ionosphere, and theirassociation with magnetospheric processes. There is now a substantial body ofliterature documenting observations of enhanced ion-acoustic spectra, but thereremains controversy over generation mechanisms. We present a review ofliterature documenting observations of naturally enhanced ion-acoustic spectra,observed mainly along the geomagnetic field direction, along with a discussionof the theories put forward to explain such phenomena. 相似文献
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Jiangchuan Ni Yuntai Chen Ming Wang Mingxi Wu Jiayu Zhou Peide Wang Francis T. Wu 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):459-467
Based on the three component accelerograms, recorded at near-field distance by a temporary seismic network consisting of digital
cassette tape recording accelerographs, the focal mechanisms of three aftershocks of the April 18, 1985, Luquan, Yunnan Province,
China, earthquake ofM
S=6.1, are calculated using seismic moment tensor inversion technique. The phases of direct P, S and converted SP waves in
the displacement seismograms, produced by twice integrations of the observed accelerograms, are identified via forward calculation
using Green’s functions for homogeneous semi-infinite elastic medium, and used in the inversion. The results of inversion
show that a better fit of synthetic to the observed seismograms of direct as well as converted phases can be achieved if appropriate
weighting functions are used in solving the over definite linear equations. While these aftershocks are of different magnitudes
(M
L=4.8, 3.2 and 3.5, respectively) and hypocentral locations, their focal mechanisms are very similar and consistent with that
of the main shock. This feature demonstrates the intrinsic correlation between the occurrence of aftershocks and the seismogenic
fault of main shock. Our experimentations show that using the near field accelerogram obtained from the digital seismic network
with appropriate azimuthal coverage on the focal sphere, with the aid of even simple medium model, not only the shear dislocation
source, but also the isotropic part and CLVD (compensated linear vector dipole) can be retrieved by the technique of moment
tensor inversion.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 412–419, 1991.
This work is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Sciences Foundation and the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction
Test Site (WYEPTS), State Seismological Bureau. 相似文献
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50.
This study uses the fault-tree technique to identify the major effects of land degradation caused by the adoption of a malfunctioning shifting cultivation technology for food production in tropical basins. Through reference to existing empirical research, the sequence of events in the process of degradation of the Nigerian agricultural basins and the adjoining river systems was identified and related to the appropriate causal agent. A complete picture of the cost of land degradation goes beyond the degraded terrain and includes damage in areas where there is an unloading of large quantities of run-off and sediments. The causal pathway showed that existing land degradation management policies have focused on the symptoms rather than on the cause of the degradation process. Through a thorough examination of those malfunctioning components of the traditional farming technology, appropriate management strategies are proferred. An institutional organization for land degradation management in Nigeria which includes the federal, state and local governments is strongly recommended. 相似文献