A steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach for sub‐daily flow disaggregation     

Kim‐Seong Tan  Francis H. S. Chiew  Rodger B. Grayson 《水文研究》2007,21(20):2807-2816

The estimation of sub‐daily flows from daily flood flows is important for many hydrological and hydraulic applications. Flows during flood events often vary significantly within sub‐daily time‐scales, and failure to capture the sub‐daily flood characteristic can result in an underestimation of the instantaneous flood peaks, with possible risk of design failure. It is more common to find a longer record of daily flow series (observed or modelled using daily rainfall series) than sub‐daily flow data. This paper describes a novel approach, known as the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach, for disaggregating daily flood flows into sub‐daily flows that takes advantage of the strong relationship between the standardized instantaneous flood peak and the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index. The strength of this relationship, which is considerably stronger than the relationship between the standardized flood peak and the event flood volume, is shown using data from six rivers flowing into the Gippsland Lakes in southeast Australia. The results indicate that the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach can be used to disaggregate modelled daily flood flows satisfactorily, but its reliability is dependent on a model's ability to simulate the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index and the event flood volume. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Population growth in Bejing: trends and countermeasures     

Zhaoliang Hu  Francis Yee  George Chusheng Lin 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1991,1(3):212-220

Beijing’ population has experienced a dramatic increase eversince the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Population growthin Beijing can be broadly broken down into three major components:natural increase, immigration, and the growth of floating population. Thecontinuous growth of Beijing’s population is closely linked with its centralized multi-function. The comprehensive countermeasures to control Beijing’s population growth are proposed, for example, decentralizing economicfunctions, including developing the suburbs, developing the metropolitan areaand creating counter-magnetic centers, reforming the administrative and economic systems.  相似文献   

Short time-scale fluctuations in the difference light curves of QSO 0957+561A,B: microlensing or noise?     

R. Gil-Merino  L. J. Goicoechea  M. Serra-Ricart  A. Oscoz  D. Alcalde  E. Mediavilla 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,322(2):397-410

From optical R -band data of the double quasar QSO 0957+561A,B, we made two new difference light curves (with an overlap of about 330 d between the time-shifted light curve for the A image and the magnitude-shifted light curve for the B image). We observed noisy behaviours around the zero line and no short time-scale events (with a duration of months), where the term 'event' refers to a prominent feature that may be a result of microlensing or another source of variability. Only one event lasting two weeks and rising −33 mmag was found . Measured constraints on the possible microlensing variability can be used to obtain information on the granularity of the dark matter in the main lensing galaxy and the size of the source. In addition, one can also test the ability of the observational noise to cause the rms averages and the local features of the difference signals. We focused on this last issue. The combined photometries were related to a process consisting of an intrinsic signal plus a Gaussian observational noise. The intrinsic signal has been assumed to be either a smooth function (polynomial), a smooth function plus a stationary noise process, or a correlated stationary process . Using these three pictures without microlensing, we derived some models totally consistent with the observations. We finally discussed the sensitivity of our telescope (at Teide Observatory) to several classes of microlensing variability.  相似文献   

Urban theory: A critical introduction to power,cities and urbanism in the 21st century by A. Harding and T. Blokland,Sage, London, 2014. 294 pp. ISBN 978‐1‐4462‐9452‐9.          下载免费PDF全文

Francis L. Collins 《New Zealand geographer》2015,71(1):64-65

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Benchmarks for multicomponent reactive transport across a cement/clay interface     

Nicolas C. M. Marty  Olivier Bildstein  Philippe Blanc  Francis Claret  Benoit Cochepin  Eric C. Gaucher  Diederik Jacques  Jean-Eric Lartigue  Sanheng Liu  K. Ulrich Mayer  Johannes C. L. Meeussen  Isabelle Munier  Ingmar Pointeau  Danyang Su  Carl I. Steefel 《Computational Geosciences》2015,19(3):635-653

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Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models     

Jacques Derome  Gilbert Brunet  André Plante  Normand Gagnon  George J. Boer  Francis W. Zwiers 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):485-501

Abstract

Two dynamical models are used to perform a series of seasonal predictions. One model, referred to as GCM2, was designed as a general circulation model for climate studies, while the second one, SEF, was designed for numerical weather prediction. The seasonal predictions cover the 26‐year period 1969–1994. For each of the four seasons, ensembles of six forecasts are produced with each model, the six runs starting from initial conditions six hours apart. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the month prior to the start of the forecast is persisted through the three‐month prediction period, and added to a monthly‐varying climatological SST field.

The ensemble‐mean predictions for each of the models are verified independently, and the two ensembles are blended together in two different ways: as a simple average of the two models, denoted GCMSEF, and with weights statistically determined to minimize the mean‐square error (the Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE) method).

The GCMSEF winter and spring predictions show a Pacific/North American (PNA) response to a warm tropical SST anomaly. The temporal anomaly correlation between the zero‐lead GCMSEF mean‐seasonal predictions and observations of the 500‐hPa height field (Z₅₀₀) shows statistically significant forecast skill over parts of the PNA area for all seasons, but there is a notable seasonal variability in the distribution of the skill. The GCMSEF predictions are more skilful than those of either model in winter, and about as skilful as the better of the two models in the other seasons.

The zero‐lead surface air temperature GCMSEF forecasts over Canada are found to be skilful (a) over the west coast in all seasons except fall, (b) over most of Canada in summer, and (c) over Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec in the fall. In winter the skill of the BLUE forecasts is substantially better than that of the GCMSEF predictions, while for the other seasons the difference in skill is not statistically significant.

When the Z₅₀₀ forecasts are averaged over months two and three of the seasons (one‐month lead predictions), they show skill in winter over the north‐eastern Pacific, western Canada and eastern North America, a skill that comes from those years with strong SST anomalies of the El Niño/La Niña type. For the other seasons, predictions averaged over months two and three show little skill in Z₅₀₀ in the mid‐latitudes. In the tropics, predictive skill is found in Z₅₀₀ in all seasons when a strong SST anomaly of the El Niño/La Niña type is observed. In the absence of SST anomalies of this type, tropical forecast skill is still found over much of the tropics in months two and three of the northern hemisphere spring and summer, but not in winter and fall.  相似文献   

Kinematic Subsystems of the Ionized Gas in the Central Region of NGC 1068 Inferred from the [O III] λλ 4959, 5007 and [S III] λ 9069 Emission Lines     

E. Mediavilla  S. Arribas  B. Garcia-Lorenzo  C. Del Burgo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,248(1-2):151-157

We discuss the multi-Gaussian decomposition of the [O III] λλ 4959,5007 emission line profiles from 2-D spectroscopy. We found that a model based on five main gaseous components can reproduce the observed line profiles consistently. The morphology of the intensity maps of some of these gaseous subsystems seems bipolar. This is in better agreement with current ideas about the alignment of the ionization in AGNs than the relatively amorphous morphology seen in filter images. The centre of the inter-pole region is sited ~ 2″ NE of the optical nucleus, close to the origin of the strong outflow of ionized gas recently reported (Arribas et al. 1996). This suggests that the putative hidden nucleus of NGC 1068 could be sited near to this point.  相似文献   

The Ebro Deep-Sea Fan system     

C. Hans Nelson  Andres Maldonado  Francis Coumes  Henri Got  Andre Manaco 《Geo-Marine Letters》1984,3(2-4):125-131

The Ebro Fan System consists of en echelon channel-levee complexes, 50×20 km in area and 200-m thick. A few strong reflectors in a generally transparent seismic facies identify the sand-rich channel floors and levee crests. Numerous continuous acoustic reflectors characterize overbank turbidites and hemipelagites that blanket abandoned channel-levee complexes. The interlobe areas between channel complexes fill with homogeneous mud and sand from mass flow and overbank deposition; these exhibit a transparent seismic character. The steep continental rise and sediment “drainage” of Valencia Trough at the end of the channel-levee complexes prevent the development of distributary channels and midfan lobe deposits. Margin setting represents fan and/or source area  相似文献   

On the experimental silicification of microorganisms. III. Implications of the preservation of the green prokaryotic alga prochloron and other coccoids for interpretation of the microbial fossil record     

Susan Francis  Elso S. Barghoorn  Lynn Margulis 《Precambrian Research》1978,7(4):377-383

Evidence for Precambrian fossil eukaryotic microorganisms has been based on: (1) the presence of internal ‘spots’ which have been variously interpreted to be remains of nuclei or pyrenoids of photosynthetic plastids or other organelles; (2) tetrahedral tetrad arrangement of cells; (3) trilete scars interpreted to be indicative of meiotic division: (4) large cell diameters; and (5) putative mitotic cell divisions. These features have been reported in fossils preserved in Precambrian cherts. We have studied modern microbial mats, thought to be analogues of Precambrian fossil communities, and found they may be silicified by laboratory procedures. In microbial mats from Baja California we have found many ‘spot cells’ that we could identify as remains of cyanophytes. We have silicified the newly discovered large prokaryotic coccoid green alga Prochloron and have found that it, like many cyanophytes previously silicified, preserves its structure and maintains its initial dimensions. In laboratory-silicified prokaryotic organisms we have found that all of the above criteria, supposedly characteristic of eukaryotes, can be observed. We conclude that there is no compelling morphological evidence for fossil eukaryotic microbes from Precambrian cherts.  相似文献   

Determination of volatile fatty acid turnover rates in organic-rich marine sediments     

Francis J. Sansone  Christopher S. Martens 《Marine Chemistry》1981,10(3):233-247

Volatile fatty acid (VFA) apparent turnover rates in organic-rich marine sediments were determined by measuring whole sediment VFA concentration and the corresponding first-order reaction rate constants. In order to measure VFA concentrations, bulk wet sediment samples were basified, freeze-dried, extracted with methanol, derivatized to form methyl esters of the VFAs, and analyzed by packed-column gas chromatography using hexanoic acid as an internal standard. The detection limits for acetate, propionate, iso-butyrate and butyrate were 1.0, 0.4, 0.2 and 0.2 μmol l^?1_s, respectively, for 600 ml samples. Rate constants for acetate and propionate were determined by anaerobically incubating samples at in-situ temperatures with tracer levels of ¹⁴C-labelled VFAs. Metabolized label was recovered as CO₂, CH₄, cellular material, water-soluble material, and VFA (ether-soluble) fractions. Apparent turnover rates measured during summer and winter in anoxic Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina (U.S.A.) sediments were in the range of 19–330 μmol l^?1_s h^?1 for acetate and 0.7–7.0 μmol l^?1_s h^?1 for propionate.  相似文献