Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments     

Royce A. Francis  Stefanie M. Falconi  Roshanak Nateghi  Seth D. Guikema 《Climatic change》2011,106(1):31-55

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.  相似文献   

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Laura Geselbracht  Kathleen Freeman  Eugene Kelly  Doria R. Gordon  Francis E. Putz 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):35-57

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.  相似文献   

Migrating magmatism in a continental arc: Geodynamics of the Eastern Mediterranean revisited   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yener Eyuboglu  M. Santosh  Francis O. Dudas  Sun-Lin Chung  Enver Akaryal&#x; 《Journal of Geodynamics》2011,52(1):2-15

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Transition from shoshonitic to adakitic magmatism in the eastern Pontides,NE Turkey: Implications for slab window melting     

Yener Eyuboglu  Sun-Lin Chung  M. Santosh  Francis O. Dudas  Enver Akaryalı 《Gondwana Research》2011,19(2):413-429

The formation of the eastern Pontides orogenic belt has been widely assigned to a northward subduction of the Neotethyan oceanic slab during the late Mesozoic–Cenozoic. Here we provide an alternate model based on new geological, geochemical and isotopic data. The magmatic activity in the far south of the belt started in the early Campanian with shoshonitic trachyandesites and associated pyroclastics. This sequence is covered by the late Campanian–early Maastrichtian reefal limestones and another stage of high-K volcanism represented by analcimized leucite-rich ultrapotassic rocks of the Maastrichtian–early Paleocene (?) ages. The shoshonitic and ultrapotassic rocks, with K₂O contents ranging from 0.26 to 6.95 wt.%, display broadly similar rare earth and multi-element distribution patterns. Both rock types are enriched in LILE and LREE and depleted in HFSE (Nb, Ta and Ti), suggesting a subduction-enriched mantle source for the magma generation. Subsequently, during the late Paleocene, a stage of acidic magmatism (SiO₂ of 53.25–73.61 wt.%) that shows adakitic geochemical characteristics including high Sr/Y (46–416) and La/Yb (11–51) and low Y (2.6–12.2 ppm), is documented characterized by melting of a mafic source such as the MORB crust with garnet in the residue. The adakitic magmatism began at ~ 56 Ma and migrated toward the north through time, culminating with porphyritic andesites (~ 47 Ma) that were emplaced in the Gumushane–Bayburt line and its vicinity. North of this line, coeval magmas show typical calc-alkaline nature and continued to develop toward further north until the middle to late Eocene. Based on the spatial and temporal variations in the magmas generated in the eastern Pontides orogenic belt, we propose a new geodynamic model to explain the tectonomagmatic evolution of these rocks and correlate the adakitic magmatism to ridge subduction and slab window process within a south-dipping subduction zone. Our model is in contrast to the previous proposals which envisage partial melting or delamination of thickened lower continental crust due to the collision in the south during the Paleocene–Eocene.  相似文献   

Seismic Evidence for the α-β Quartz Transition beneath Taiwan from Vp/Vs Tomography     

KUO-CHEN Hao  WU Francis  JENKINS Davi  MECHIE James  ROECKER Steven  WANG Chien-Ying  HUANG Bor-Shuh 《地质学报》2013,87(Z1):286-286

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Frasnian rugose and tabulate corals from the eastern Taurus (Kozan region,Turkey)     

Marie Coen-Aubert  Olivier Monod  Yves Plusquellec  Francis Tourneur 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(1-2):68-93

A section near the Kilgen Lake (Adana Province) has yielded a fauna of rugose and tabulate corals including Disphyllum cf. rugosum (Wedekind, 1922), D. cf. curtum Hill, 1954, Wapitiphyllum sp., Thamnopora sp., and Alveolites sp. This coral assemblage is consistent with the previous Frasnian age assigned to the limestones of the Gümü?ali Formation. The rather well-preserved material provides new data on the structure and microstructure of Disphyllum and allows to describe in Thamnopora unusual calicinal morphology (septal ridges, median teeth, and pseudopercula) as well as new structures linked to the lateral increase (basal low wall, apical cul-de-sac).  相似文献   

Migrations de charnières et vecteurs de déplacements sur des modèles analogiques de plis superposés     

Francis Odonne 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(2):139-146

Résumé

La modélisation analogique d’une superposition de plissements dans une série sédimentaire stratifiée, représentée ici par un multicouche de paraffine et graisse, fait apparaître le rôle déterminant de la géométrie des plis initiaux. Les plis ouverts peuvent évoluer sous l’effet de la seconde compression :

- Si les directions des axes de ces plis sont parallèles à la seconde compression, on verra apparaître des plis superposés.

- Si les directions des axes sont obliques à celle-ci, on observera la réutilisation des plis qui seront alors réorientés grâce à la migration de leur charnière. En fin de déformation la ou les familles de plis présentes dans le modèle ne sont perpendiculaires ni à la première ni à la seconde direction de compression.  相似文献   

Pb,Hf and Nd isotope compositions of the two Réunion volcanoes (Indian Ocean): A tale of two small-scale mantle “blobs”?     

Delphine Bosch  Janne Blichert-Toft  Frédéric Moynier  Bruce K. Nelson  Philippe Telouk  Pierre-Yves Gillot  Francis Albarède 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,265(3-4):748-765

Pb, Hf, Nd and Sr isotopes of basaltic lavas from the two Réunion Island volcanoes are reported in order to examine the origin of the sources feeding these volcanoes and to detect possible changes through time. Samples, chosen to cover the whole lifetime of the two volcanoes (from 2 Ma to present), yield a chemically restricted (compared to OIB lavas) but complex distribution. Réunion plume isotopic characteristics have been defined on the basis of the composition of uncontaminated shield-building lavas from the Piton de la Fournaise volcano. The average ?_Nd, ?_Hf, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb isotope ratios calculated for this component are + 4.4, + 9.1, 0.70411, 18.97, 15.59 and 39.03, respectively. In Pb–Pb isotope space, each volcano defines a distinct linear trend but slight variations are also detected within the various volcanic sequences. The Piton des Neiges volcano yields a distinct and significantly more scattered isotopic distribution than Piton de la Fournaise for both Pb, Hf and Nd isotope tracers. A principal component analysis of the Pb isotope data from Piton de la Fournaise reveals a major contribution of the C and EM-1 components (with a clear Dupal flavor) as main components for the modern Réunion plume. The same components have been identified for Piton des Neiges but with a stronger participation of a depleted mantle component and a weaker EM-1 contribution. The compositional change of the lavas erupted by the Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes is attributed to the impingement of two small-scale blobs of plume material at the base of the Réunion lithosphere. Compared to other hot-spots worldwide, in particular Hawaii and Kerguelen, magmas beneath Réunion are generated from a considerably more homogeneous, compositionally more primitive plume higher in ²⁰⁶Pb. Although shallow-level contamination processes have been locally detected they did not alter significantly the composition of the plume magmas. This is tentatively attributed to mantle dynamics producing small, high-velocity blobs that ascend rapidly through the lithosphere, and to the lack of a well-developed magma chamber at depth in the lithosphere.  相似文献   

Wood as a driver of past landscape change along river corridors     

Robert A. Francis  Geoff E. Petts  Angela M. Gurnell 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(10):1622-1626

The role of wood as a driver of landform development appears to have been overlooked in the interpretation of palaeo‐landscape change along river corridors. Deforested river corridors and wood‐free rivers characterize ‘modern’, managed landscapes, but along natural river corridors both driftwood dynamics and tree reproductive strategies can have a dramatic impact on the style and rate of channel and floodplain development. Therefore, we believe that interpretations of the post‐glacial history of river valleys across the northern temperate climatic zone could be usefully reassessed, incorporating the roles of riparian trees. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Solving ball lightning—A reply to Stefan and Massey (2008)     

Peter Francis Coleman 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2009,71(8-9):1001-1002

Comments are made on the ball lightning paper of Stephan and Massey [Stefan, K.D., Massey, N., 2008. Burning molten metallic sphere: One class of ball lightning? Journal of Atmospheric and Solar–Terrestrial Physics 70, 1589–1596] that describes their ‘welding drop’ theory. An alternative theory is offered based on combustion inside an atmospheric vortex. The ‘vortex fireball’ hypothesis has good explanatory capability in regard to published ball lightning properties.  相似文献