Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

V. Ruiz‐Villanueva  J. M. Bodoque  A. Díez‐Herrero  M. A. Eguibar  E. Pardo‐Igúzquiza 《水文研究》2013,27(24):3424-3437

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m³ s^–1) using indirect methods, but one‐dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m³ s^–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m³ s^–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35‐year return period) equivalent to the 50‐year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seismic activity in the Czech Republic in 2010     

Jan Zedník  Jana Pazdírková 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2013,57(2):332-337

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A neuro fuzzy approach to recognize rock magnetic and lithological patterns in a stratigraphic well from the Llanos Foreland Basin (Colombia)     

Victoria Camacho  Diego López-Rodríguez  Vincenzo Costanzo-Álvarez  Milagrosa Aldana  Nuri Hurtado  Germán Bayona 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2013,57(4):669-691

The Neuro Fuzzy System (NFS) is a hybrid algorithm that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks. Since it can be used as a pattern recognition technique, we explore its potential to characterize the major lithological units encompassed by the first 512 m of the Colombian stratigraphic well Saltarin 1A (Guayabo and León Formations). Thus, we employ the NFS to infer the magnetic remanence S-ratio using bulk magnetic susceptibility (κ), κ-normalized saturation isothermal magnetization (SIRM κ) and/or volume of shale (V_sh) obtained from a gamma-ray log. The best results in terms of their corresponding Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) values, throughout most of the upper Guayabo Formation, where magnetite seems to be an important magnetic phase, are attained with logκ and SIRM κ as input variables. Beyond 350 m downcore, the quality of the inference decreases over the León Formation, characterized by a significant presence of pyrrhotite. However, the extra input variable V_sh adjusts the inferred S-ratio to their experimental counterparts throughout this formation suggesting that the early diagenesis process that led to the formation of dispersed clay in these samples was also responsible for the formation of pyrrhotite. Hence the inclusion of manifold input data increases the ability of the net to predict S-ratio in complex geological settings with a sequence of changing lithologies, varying amounts and types of magnetic minerals, and different distributions of mineral grain sizes. In case these variables do not properly infer the actual S-ratio data, the extent of the different lithostratigraphic units would be still identifiable in some cases by the uneven quality of the correlation observed between inferred and experimental values.  相似文献   

Magnetic particles in atmospheric particulate matter collected at sites with different level of air pollution     

Eduard Petrovský  Radek Zbořil  Tomáš Matys Grygar  Bohumil Kotlík  Jiří Novák  Aleš Kapička  Hana Grison 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2013,57(4):755-770

Magnetic measurements of deposited atmospehric dust can serve as an additional parameter in assessing environmental pollution. This method is based on the assumption that atmospherically deposited particles contain significant portion of ferrimagnetic iron oxides of anthropogenic origin, which can be easily detected. Aim of this paper is to identify clearly magnetic fraction of daily samples of particulate matter less than 10 μm (PM10), routinely used for air quality assessment and monitoring. We used combination of thermomagnetic analyses and other physical and chemical methods, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Mössbauer spectroscopy. Our results show that daily samples of PM10, collected at sites with different degree of atmospheric pollution, contain magnetite of spherical shape, which is presumably of industrial origin. Thus, magnetic methods can be applied directly to the same substances, which are used routinely in air quality assessment and monitoring.  相似文献   

Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting     

L. Mediero  L. Garrote  F. J. Martín-Carrasco 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1129-1149

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.  相似文献   

Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity     

R. Domínguez M. 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):460-478

Abstract

The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478.  相似文献   

Corrigendum to “Survival and movements of Magellanic penguins rehabilitated from oil fouling along the coast of South America, 2000–2010” [Marine Pollut. Bull. 64 (2012) 1309–1317]     

Valeria Ruoppolo  Ralph Eric Thijl Vanstreels  Eric J. Woehler  Sergio Andres Rodríguez Heredia  Andréa Corrado Adornes  Rodolfo Pinho da Silva-Filho  Ricardo Matus  Carla Poleschi  Karen Griot  Cristiane K. Miyaji Kolesnikovas  Patrícia Serafini 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,66(1-2):265

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Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors     

R. Brázdil  L. Řezníčková  H. Valášek  M. Havlíček  P. Dobrovolný  E. Soukalová 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):468-485

Abstract

Floods from the middle part of the River Morava (eastern Czech Republic) are considered over the course of the past three centuries, the study being based on data derived from documentary evidence (1691–1880), measured peak water stages, H_k (1881–1920) and peak discharges, Q_k (1916–2009), evaluated with respect to their N-year return period (H_N and Q_N ). Changes in land use and water management (water reservoirs, channel modifications) are discussed, as are factors influencing runoff conditions in the Morava catchment. Decadal synthesis of flood series identifies the highest flood activity in the decades of 1911–1920 and 1961–1970 (11 floods each), 1831–1840, 1891–1900, 1901–1910 and 1931–1940 (10 floods each). Uncertainty in this series is related to some incompleteness of documentary data in the pre-1881 period. Very low flood frequency occurred in the 1990s–2000s, although the most disastrous floods were recorded in this particular period (July 1997 at Q ₁₀₀ and March/April 2006 at Q ₂₀–Q ₅₀). Changes in flood frequency correspond partly to long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.

Citation Brázdil, R., ?ezní?ková, L., Valá?ek, H., Havlí?ek, M., Dobrovolný, P., Soukalová, E., ?ehánek, T. & Skokanová, H. (2011) Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 468–485.  相似文献   

Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge     

Yolanda Cantón  Luis Villagarcía  María José Moro  Penelope Serrano-Ortíz  Ana Were  Francisco Javier Alcalá 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):737-753

Abstract

This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year^-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year^-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year^-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity.

Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753.  相似文献   

Influence of a position of the critical level inside a plane layer on the rise of magnetically and thermally driven instabilities     

Alexandra Marsenić  Sebastián Ševčík 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(5):457-476

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