CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation     

Emily E. Riddle  Amy H. Butler  Jason C. Furtado  Judah L. Cohen  Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):1099-1116

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS.  相似文献   

Magnetic fabrics and their relationship with the emplacement of the Piracaia pluton,SE Brazil     

M. Irene B. Raposo  Leonardo Frederico Pressi  Valdecir de Assis Janasi 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(3):773-786

Magnetic fabric and rock-magnetism studies were performed on the four units of the 578 ± 3-Ma-old Piracaia pluton (NW of São Paulo State, southern Brazil). This intrusion is roughly elliptical (~32 km²), composed of (i) coarse-grained monzodiorite (MZD-c), (ii) fine-grained monzodiorite (MZD-f), which is predominant in the pluton, (iii) monzonite heterogeneous (MZN-het), and (iv) quartz syenite (Qz-Sy). Magnetic fabrics were determined by applying both anisotropy of low-field magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and anisotropy of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (AARM). The two fabrics are coaxial. The parallelism between AMS and AARM tensors excludes the presence of a single domain (SD) effect on the AMS fabric of the units. Several rock-magnetism experiments performed in one specimen from each sampled units show that for all of them, the magnetic susceptibility and magnetic fabrics are carried by magnetite grains, which was also observed in the thin sections. Foliations and lineations in the units were successfully determined by applying magnetic methods. Most of the magnetic foliations are steeply dipping or vertical in all units and are roughly parallel to the foliation measured in the field and in the country rocks. In contrast, the magnetic lineations present mostly low plunges for the whole pluton. However, for eight sites, they are steep up to vertical. Thin-section analyses show that rocks from the Piracaia pluton were affected by the regional strain during and after emplacement since magmatic foliation evolves to solid-state fabric in the north of the pluton, indicating that magnetic fabrics in this area of the pluton are related to this strain. Otherwise, the lack of solid-state deformation at outcrop scale and in thin sections precludes deformation in the SW of the pluton. This evidence allows us to interpret the observed magnetic fabrics as primary in origin (magmatic) acquired when the rocks were solidified as a result of magma flow, in which steeply plunging magnetic lineation suggests that a feeder zone could underlie this area.  相似文献   

Lacustrine records of Holocene flood pulse dynamics in the Upper Paraguay River watershed (Pantanal wetlands,Brazil)     

Michael M. McGlue  Aguinaldo Silva  Hiran Zani  Fabrício A. Corradini  Mauro Parolin  Erin J. Abel  Andrew S. Cohen  Mario L. Assine  Geoffrey S. Ellis  Mark A. Trees  Sidney Kuerten  Frederico dos Santos Gradella  Giliane Gessica Rasbold 《Quaternary Research》2012,78(2):285-294

The Pantanal is the world's largest tropical wetland and a biodiversity hotspot, yet its response to Quaternary environmental change is unclear. To address this problem, sediment cores from shallow lakes connected to the Upper Paraguay River (PR) were analyzed and radiocarbon dated to track changes in sedimentary environments. Stratal relations, detrital particle size, multiple biogeochemical indicators, and sponge spicules suggest fluctuating lake-level lowstand conditions between ~ 11,000 and 5300 cal yr BP, punctuated by sporadic and in some cases erosive flood flows. A hiatus has been recorded from ~ 5300 to 2600 cal yr BP, spurred by confinement of the PR within its channel during an episode of profound regional drought. Sustained PR flooding caused a transgression after ~ 2600 cal yr BP, with lake-level highstand conditions appearing during the Little Ice Age. Holocene PR flood pulse dynamics are best explained by variability in effective precipitation, likely driven by insolation and tropical sea-surface temperature gradients. Our results provide novel support for hypotheses on: (1) stratigraphic discontinuity of floodplain sedimentary archives; (2) late Holocene methane flux from Southern Hemisphere wetlands; and (3) pre-colonial indigenous ceramics traditions in western Brazil.  相似文献   

Inversion of ambient seismic noise HVSR to evaluate velocity and structural models of the Lower Tagus Basin,Portugal     

J. F. Borges  H. G. Silva  R. J. G. Torres  B. Caldeira  M. Bezzeghoud  J. A. Furtado  J. Carvalho 《Journal of Seismology》2016,20(3):875-887

During its history, several significant earthquakes have shaken the Lower Tagus Valley (Portugal). These earthquakes were destructive; some strong earthquakes were produced by large ruptures in offshore structures located southwest of the Portuguese coastline, and other moderate earthquakes were produced by local faults. In recent years, several studies have successfully obtained strong-ground motion syntheses for the Lower Tagus Valley using the finite difference method. To confirm the velocity model of this sedimentary basin obtained from geophysical and geological data, we analysed the ambient seismic noise measurements by applying the horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method. This study reveals the dependence of the frequency and amplitude of the low-frequency (HVSR) peaks (0.2–2 Hz) on the sediment thickness. We have obtained the depth of the Cenozoic basement along a profile transversal to the basin by the inversion of these ratios, imposing constraints from seismic reflection, boreholes, seismic sounding and gravimetric and magnetic potentials. This technique enables us to improve the existing three-dimensional model of the Lower Tagus Valley structure. The improved model will be decisive for the improvement of strong motion predictions in the earthquake hazard analysis of this highly populated basin. The methodology discussed can be applied to any other sedimentary basin.  相似文献   

Linkages between the North Pacific Oscillation and central tropical Pacific SSTs at low frequencies   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jason C. Furtado  Emanuele Di Lorenzo  Bruce T. Anderson  Niklas Schneider 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(12):2833-2846

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) recently (re-)emerged in the literature as a key atmospheric mode in Northern Hemisphere climate variability, especially in the Pacific sector. Defined as a dipole of sea level pressure (SLP) between, roughly, Alaska and Hawaii, the NPO is connected with downstream weather conditions over North America, serves as the atmospheric forcing pattern of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and is a potential mechanism linking extratropical atmospheric variability to El Ni?o events in the tropical Pacific. This paper explores further the forcing dynamics of the NPO and, in particular, that of its individual poles. Using observational data and experiments with a simple atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we illustrate that the southern pole of the NPO (i.e., the one near Hawaii) contains significant power at low frequencies (7–10?years), while the northern pole (i.e., the one near Alaska) has no dominant frequencies. When examining the low-frequency content of the NPO and its poles separately, we discover that low-frequency variations (periods >7?years) of the NPO (particularly its subtropical node) are intimately tied to variability in central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Ni?o-Modoki/Central Pacific Warming (CPW) phenomenon. This result suggests that fluctuations in subtropical North Pacific SLP are important to monitor for Pacific low-frequency climate change. Using the simple AGCM, we also illustrate that variability in central tropical Pacific SSTs drives a significant fraction of variability of the southern node of the NPO. Taken together, the results highlight important links between secondary modes (i.e., CPW-NPO-NPGO) in Pacific decadal variability, akin to already established relationships between the primary modes of Pacific climate variability (i.e., canonical El Ni?o, the Aleutian Low, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation).  相似文献   

Spatial–temporal changes in Andean plateau climate and elevation from stable isotopes of mammal teeth     

John Bershaw  Carmala N. Garzione  Pennilyn Higgins  Bruce J. MacFadden  Frederico Anaya  Herculano Alvarenga 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(3-4):530-538

Paleoelevation constraints from fossil leaf physiognomy and stable isotopes of sedimentary carbonate suggest that significant surface uplift of the northern Andean plateau, on the order of 2.5 ± 1 km, occurred between ～ 10.3 and 6.4 Ma. Independent spatial and temporal constraints on paleoelevation and paleoclimate of both the northern and southern plateau are important for understanding the distribution of rapid surface uplift and its relation to climate evolution across the plateau. This study focuses on teeth from modern and extinct mammal taxa (including notoungulates, pyrotheres, and litopterns) spanning ～ 29 Ma to present, collected from the Altiplano and Eastern Cordillera of Bolivia (16.2°S to 21.4°S), and lowland Brazil. Tooth enamel of large, water-dependent mammals preserves a record of surface water isotopes and the type of plants that animals ingested while their teeth were mineralizing. Previous studies have shown that the δ¹⁸O of modern precipitation and surface waters decrease systematically with increasing elevations across the central Andes. Our results from high elevation sites between 3600 and 4100 m show substantially more positive δ¹⁸O values for late Oligocene tooth samples compared to < 10 Ma tooth δ¹⁸O values. Late Oligocene teeth collected from low elevation sites in southeast Brazil show δ¹⁸O values similar (within 2‰) to contemporaneous teeth collected at high elevation in the Eastern Cordillera. This affirms that the Andean plateau was at a very low elevation during the late Oligocene. Late Oligocene teeth from the northern Eastern Cordillera also yield consistent δ¹³C values of about ? 9‰, indicating that the environment was semi-arid at that time. Latitudinal gradients in δ¹⁸O values of late Miocene to Pliocene fossil teeth are similar to modern values for large mammals, suggesting that by ～ 8 Ma in the northern Altiplano and by ～ 3.6 Ma in the southern Altiplano, both regions had reached high elevation and established a latitudinal rainfall gradient similar to modern.  相似文献   

Secular variation of seismo-volcanic phenomena in the azores     

Frederico Machado 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1960,23(1):101-108

By studying the past behaviour of Azorean volcanoes, sunspot and Earth tide correlations have been discovered, and may certainly help in prediction. Some evidence has also been found that buckling of the thin roof of magma chambers may be the mechanism responsible for the eruptions, including the accompanying seismic swarms. If this is the case, geodetic control of the adjacent regions will probably be decisive in forecasting future activity.  相似文献   

Unveiling movement uncertainty for robust trajectory similarity analysis     

Andre Salvaro Furtado  Luis Otavio Campos Alvares  Nikos Pelekis  Yannis Theodoridis  Vania Bogorny 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(1):140-168

Trajectory data analysis and mining require distance and similarity measures, and the quality of their results is directly related to those measures. Several similarity measures originally proposed for time-series were adapted to work with trajectory data, but these approaches were developed for well-behaved data that usually do not have the uncertainty and heterogeneity introduced by the sampling process to obtain trajectories. More recently, similarity measures were proposed specifically for trajectory data, but they rely on simplistic movement uncertainty representations, such as linear interpolation. In this article, we propose a new distance function, and a new similarity measure that uses an elliptical representation of trajectories, being more robust to the movement uncertainty caused by the sampling rate and the heterogeneity of this kind of data. Experiments using real data show that our proposal is more accurate and robust than related work.  相似文献   

Fish bile as a biomarker for metal exposure     

Hauser-Davis RA  Bastos FF  de Oliveira TF  Ziolli RL  de Campos RC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(8):1589-1595

Fish accumulate several trace elements in muscle, gills and liver, however studies also indicate that metals can be excreted through bile. Since metal contamination leads to modifications in bile composition, biliary excretion offers an alternative way to evaluate the presence of trace-elements. Bile is easier to obtain than other organs and presents a simpler matrix, making it easier for chemical pre-treatment. To verify if bile can be useful as a biomonitoring tool for metal contamination, liver and bile trace element concentrations were determined and correlated. The Artificial Neural Networks statistical technique was used to verify if liver trace-element quantification could be substituted by bile analysis. Results show that significant correlations were obtained between trace elements in bile and liver and the ANN validated the hypothesis that certain trace-elements in bile could be utilized instead of liver trace-elements. Further studies in this field are of interest to further validate this biomarker.  相似文献   

Eurasian snow cover variability and links to winter climate in the CMIP5 models     

Jason C. Furtado  Judah L. Cohen  Amy H. Butler  Emily E. Riddle  Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(9-10):2591-2605

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