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31.
Terje Berntsen Jan Fuglestvedt Gunnar Myhre Frode Stordal Tore F. Berglen 《Climatic change》2006,74(4):377-411
Today's climate policy is based on the assumption that the location of emissions reductions has no impact on the overall climate
effect. However, this may not be the case since reductions of greenhouse gases generally will lead to changes in emissions
of short-lived gases and aerosols. Abatement measures may be primarily targeted at reducing CO2, but may also simultaneously reduce emissions of NOx, CO, CH4 and SO2 and aerosols. Emissions of these species may cause significant additional radiative forcing. We have used a global 3-D chemical
transport model and a radiative transfer model to study the impact on climate in terms of radiative forcing for a realistic
change in location of the emissions from large-scale sources. Based on an assumed 10% reduction in CO2 emissions, reductions in the emissions of other species have been estimated. Climate impact for the SRES A1B scenario is
compared to two reduction cases, with the main focus on a case with emission reductions between 2010 and 2030, but also a
case with sustained emission reductions. The emission reductions are applied to four different regions (Europe, China, South
Asia, and South America). In terms of integrated radiative forcing (over 100 yr), the total effect (including only the direct
effect of aerosols) is always smaller than for CO2 alone. Large variations between the regions are found (53–86% of the CO2 effect). Inclusion of the indirect effects of sulphate aerosols reduces the net effect of measures towards zero. The global
temperature responses, calculated with a simple energy balance model, show an initial additional warming of different magnitude
between the regions followed by a more uniform reduction in the warming later. A major part of the regional differences can
be attributed to differences related to aerosols, while ozone and changes in methane lifetime make relatively small contributions.
Emission reductions in a different sector (e.g. transportation instead of large-scale sources) might change this conclusion
since the NOx to SO2 ratio in the emissions is significantly higher for transportation than for large-scale sources. The total climate effect
of abatement measures thus depends on (i) which gases and aerosols are affected by the measure, (ii) the lifetime of the measure
implemented, (iii) time horizon over which the effects are considered, and (iv) the chemical, physical and meteorological
conditions in the region. There are important policy implications of the results. Equal effects of a measure cannot be assumed
if the measure is implemented in a different region and if several gases are affected. Thus, the design of emission reduction
measures should be considered thoroughly before implementation. 相似文献
32.
Stefan Tilmes JØrgen Brandt Frode FlatØy Robert Bergström Johannes Flemming Joakim Langner Jesper H. Christensen Lise M. Frohn Øystein Hov Ingo Jacobsen Eberthard Reimer Rainer Stern Jörg Zimmermann 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2002,42(1):91-121
Eulerian state-of-the-art air pollution forecasting systems on the European scale are operated routinely by several countries in Europe. DWD and FUB, both Germany, NERI, Denmark, NILU, Norway, and SMHI, Sweden, operate some of these systems. To apply such modeling systems, e.g. for regulatory purposes according to new EU directives, an evaluation and comparison of the model systems is fundamental in order to assess their reliability. One step in this direction is presented in this study: The model forecasts from all five systems have been compared to measurements of ground level ozone in Germany. The outstanding point in this investigation is the availability of a huge amount of data – from forecasts by the different model systems and from observations. This allows for a thorough interpretation of the findings and assures the significance of the observed features. Data from more than 300 measurement stations for a 5-month period (May–September 1999) of the German monitoring networks have been used in this comparison. Different spatial and temporal statistical parameters were applied in the evaluation. Generally, it was found that the most comprehensive models gave the best results. However, the less comprehensive and computational cheaper models also produced good results. The extensive comparison made it possible to point out weak points in the different models and to describe the individual model behavior for a full summer period in a climatological sense. The comparison also gave valuable information for an assessment of individual measurement stations and complete monitoring networks in terms of the representativeness of the observation data. 相似文献