SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

Asteroseismological studies of three β Cephei stars: IL Vel, V433 Car and KZ Mus     

G. Handler  R. R. Shobbrook  F. F. Vuthela  L. A. Balona  F. Rodler  T. Tshenye 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(3):1005-1019

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Ion Irradiation of Asphaltite: Optical Effects and Implications for Trans-Neptunian Objects and Centaurs     

Moroz  L. V.  Baratta  G.  Distefano  E.  Strazzulla  G.  Starukhina  L. V.  Dotto  E.  Barucci  M. A. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2003,92(1-4):279-289

Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) and Centaurs show remarkable colour variationsin the visual and near-infrared spectral regions. Surface alteration processes such asspace weathering (e.g., bombardment with ions) and impact resurfacingmay play an important role in the colour diversity of such bodies. Ion irradiation ofhydrocarbon ices and their mixtures with water ice transforms neutral (grey) surfacecolours of ices to red and further to grey. Along with the ices, TNOs and Centaursprobably contain complex carbonaceous compounds, in particular, complexhydrocarbons. Unlike ices, such refractory organic materials have originally lowvisual albedos and red colours in the visible and near-infrared ranges. Here wepresent the first results of ion irradiation experiments on asphaltite. Asphaltite isa natural complex hydrocarbon material. The reflectance spectra of asphaltite inthe 0.4–0.8 μm range have been recorded before irradiation and after eachirradiation step. We demonstrate that irradiation of this red dark material with30 keV H⁺ and 15 keV N⁺ ions gradually transforms its colour from redto grey as a result of carbonization. A moderate increase in the visual albedo hasbeen observed. These results may imply that the surfaces of primitive red objectsoptically dominated by complex refractory organics may show a similar spaceweathering trend. Our laboratory results were compared with published coloursof TNOs and Centaurs. A broad variety of spectral colours observed for TNOs andCentaurs may be reproduced by various spectra of irradiated organics correspondingto different ion fluences. However, such objects probably also contain ices and silicatecomponents which show different space weathering trends. This fact, together with alack of information about albedos, may explain difficulties to reveal correlations between surface colours within TNO and Centaur populations and their other properties, such as absolute magnitudes and orbital parameters.  相似文献   

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hong-Qi Zhang  Xing-Ming Bao  Yin Zhang  Ji-Hong Liu  Shu-Dong Bao  Yuan-Yong Deng  Wei Li  Jie Chen  Jin-Ping Dun  Jiang-Tao Su  Juan Guo  Xiao-Fan Wang  Ke-Liang Hu  Gang-Hua Lin  Dong-Guang WangNational Astronomical Observatories  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing   《中国天文和天体物理学报》2003,3(6):491-494

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.  相似文献   

Meteor stream identification: a new approach – III. The limitations of statistics     

T. J. Jopek  G. B. Valsecchi  Cl. Froeschlé 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,344(2):665-672

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Microtextures and crystal chemistry in P21/c pigeonites     

M. Tribaudino  D. Pasqual  G. Molin  L. Secco 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2003,77(3-4):161-176

Summary ?A single-crystal X-ray investigation was performed on crystals of P2₁/c natural pigeonite with varying Ca and Fe^* ( = Fe²⁺ + Mn²⁺) contents, in order to verify the effect of microtextural disorder on structure refinements and to constrain the crystal chemistry of pigeonite. Antiphase domains and exsolution lamellae affect differently the refinement results. In a crystal free of exsolution the structure obtained after refinement with all reflections is an average of that of the antiphase domains and of their boundaries, whereas in an exsolved crystal it represents only the structure of the prevailing pigeonite lamellae. The refinement using only h + k odd reflections seems to give the structure of the Ca-free pigeonite characteristic of the antiphase domains rather than that of Ca-rich domain walls. The ratio of the scale factors in refinements with all reflections and with only h + k odd reflections allows the ratios of the exsolved augite and pigeonite phases to be estimated. The crystal chemistry of the investigated samples follows the trends outlined by data on Ca-free and Fe-free synthetic samples. In particular, it is shown that Ca and Fe^* substitution for Mg induce similar changes in the average structure, i.e. both induce an expansion in the M1 polyhedron and decrease the difference between the M2–O3 distances. Received October 18, 2001; revised version accepted February 15, 2002  相似文献   

A qualitative and quantitative evaluation of experimental model catchment evolution     

G. R. Hancock  G. R. Willgoose 《水文研究》2003,17(12):2347-2363

Due to the geological time scales required for observation of catchment evolution, surrogates or analogues of field data are necessary to understand long‐term processes. To investigate long‐term catchment behaviour, two experimental model catchments that developed without rigid boundaries under controlled conditions are examined and a qualitative and quantitative analysis of their evolution is presented. Qualitatively, the experimental catchments have the visual appearance of field scale data. Observation demonstrates that changes in catchment shape and network form are conservative. Quantitative analysis suggests that the catchments reach an equilibrium form while a reduction in the channel network occurs. While the catchments are laboratory scale models, the results provide insights into field scale behaviour. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Interstellar Extinction and the Intrinsic Colors of Classical Cepheids in the Galaxy, the LMC, and the SMC     

G. V. Abrahamyan 《Astrophysics》2003,46(3):304-318

New methods are applied to samples of classical cepheids in the galaxy, the Large Magellanic Cloud, and the Small Magellanic Cloud to determine the interstellar extinction law for the classical cepheids, R _B:R _V:R _I:R _J:R _H:R _K= 4.190:3.190:1.884:0.851:0.501:0.303, the color excesses for classical cepheids in the galaxy, E(B-V)=-0.382-0.168logP+0.766(V-I), and the color excesses for classical cepheids in the LMC and SMC, E(B-V)=-0.374-0.166logP+0.766(V-I). The dependence of the intrinsic color (B-V)₀ on the metallicity of classical cepheids is discussed. The intrinsic color (V-I)₀ is found to be absolutely independent of the metallicity of classical cepheids. A high precision formula is obtained for calculating the intrinsic colors of classical cepheids in the galaxy: (<B>-<V>)₀=0.365(±0.011)+0.328(±0.012)logP.  相似文献   

卫星星座与编队飞行问题综述   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

胡松杰  王歆  刘林 《天文学进展》2003,21(3):231-240

卫星应用的日益发展需要由多颗卫星组成的卫星系统(形成各种类型的星座)来替代单颗卫星，这就给卫星轨道力学的应用增加了一些新内容。重点阐述了卫星星座整体结构的演化、卫星星座编队飞行中的星-星相对几何构形及其保持问题，以及星座卫星定轨所涉及的测控方式和天地基网联合定轨问题。这些内容都是卫星星座轨道力学中的重要组成部分。  相似文献   

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn     

纪雷  崔鹤  辛淑平  王军  张龙军  陆贤昆 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(2):180-186

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.  相似文献