Adaptive balance of global development processes     

I. E. Timchenko  E. M. Igumnova  S. M. Solodova 《Physical Oceanography》2007,17(3):173-189

We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social hazards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, development of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible scenarios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society. __________ Translated From Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, Pp. 62–80, May–June, 2007.  相似文献   

On the possibility of forecasting the long-term air temperature variability that determines the hydrophysical structure and ecology of the Black Sea waters     

V. B. Titov  M. T. Savin 《Oceanology》2007,47(6):758-768

Periods and amplitudes of long-term temperature fluctuations were obtained using the methods of spectral analysis and filtration of secular time series of the air temperature at 13 hydrometeorological stations in the Black Sea region. The prognostic calculations of the long-term air temperature variability are based on the results of processing of time series. The calculations of the air temperature agree with the data of observations. The possibility of the long-term air temperature variability prediction is shown.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere     

V. A. Frol’kis  I. L. Karol’  A. A. Kiselev  Yu. E. Ozolin  V. A. Zubov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(4):413-422

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.  相似文献   

Atmospheric forcing of fine-sand transport on a low-energy inner shelf: south-central Louisiana,USA     

David A. Pepper  Gregory W. Stone 《Geo-Marine Letters》2002,22(1):33-41

Hydrodynamic and sediment transport measurements from instrumentation deployed during a 54-day winter period at two sites on the Louisiana inner shelf are presented. Strong extratropical storms, with wind speeds of 7.8 to 15.1 m s^-1, were the dominant forcing mechanism during the study. These typically caused mean oscillatory flows and shear velocities about 33% higher than fair weather (averaging 12.3 and 3.2 cm s^-1 at the landward site, and 11.4 and 2.7 cm s^-1 at the seaward site, respectively). These responses were coupled with mean near-bottom currents more than twice as strong as during fair weather (10.3 and 7.5 cm s^-1 at the landward and seaward sites, respectively). These flowed in approximately the same direction as the veering wind, causing a net offshore transport of fine sand. Weak storms were responsible for little sediment transport whereas during fair weather, onshore sand transport of approximately 25-75% of the storm values appears to have occurred. This contradicts previous predictions of negligible fair-weather sediment movement on this inner shelf.  相似文献   

Determination of characteristics of atmospheric motions from satellite multiwave remote sensing data     

A. F. Nerushev  E. K. Kramchaninova  V. I. Solov’ev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(4):442-450

A method of determination of atmospheric dynamic characteristics from the data of remote sensing from a geostationary satellite is described. The method is based on the use of inhomogeneities in the concentration field of a conservative additive as tracers and on the application of correlation-extreme algorithms. Unlike the common methods used abroad, this method is able to determine not only the vector field of wind velocity but also the coefficient of turbulent diffusion and vorticity. Results of computations of the fields of the horizontal component of wind velocity and the effective coefficient of horizontal mesoscale turbulent diffusion from the Meteosat-8 SEVIRI water-vapor channel data are presented. It is shown that the average values of the effective coefficient of mesoscale horizontal turbulent diffusion in the areas with a predominantly turbulized air-mass motion are 1.5 times greater than in the areas where a laminar motion dominates. Specific features of the calculated values of the upper-troposphere dynamic characteristics in different stages of the North Atlantic TC Helene (September 2006) are analyzed.  相似文献   

Recent and Late Holocene environments on the southeastern shelf of the Laptev Sea as inferred from microfossil data     

A. G. Matul  T. A. Khusid  V. V. Mukhina  M. P. Chekhovskaya  S. A. Safarova 《Oceanology》2007,47(1):80-90

The study of diatoms and benthic foraminifers from the southeastern shelf of the Laptev Sea shows that their most diverse and abundant recent assemblages populate the peripheral underwater part of the Lena River delta representing the marginal filter of the sea. This area is characterized by an intense interaction between the fresh waters of the Siberian rivers and the basin seawater, the Atlantic one included. Local Late Holocene (～last 2300 years) environments reflect the main regional and global paleoclimatic changes, the Medieval Warm Period (～600–1100 years B.P.) and the Little Ice Age (～100–600 years B.P.) inclusive. In addition, the composition and distribution of planktonic foraminifers implies a strong influence of the Atlantic water during the Holocene optimum ～5100–6200 years B.P.  相似文献   

Phytoplankton biomass and size fractions in surface waters of the Australian sector of the southern ocean     

Wendy Ehnert  C. Peter McRoy 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(2):179-187

We collected surface water along the 142nd E meridian from Tasmania to Antarctica in December 1999. We measured temperature, salinity and total chlorophyll a; additionally, we collected suspended particle size fractions and used fluorometric analysis to determine the quantity of chlorophyll a in each of four cell size classes: picoplankton (<3 μm), two nanoplankton fractions (3–10 μm and 10–20 μm) and microplankton (> 20 μm). Changes in temperature and salinity show that we crossed 6 water masses separated by 5 fronts. We found low abundance (<0.2 mg m⁻³) of chlorophyll in all size classes, with the exception of higher values near the continent (0.2 to 0.4 mg m⁻³). Lowest chlorophyll values (<0.1 mg m⁻³) were found in the Polar Frontal Zone (51° to 54°S). Microplankton made up the largest portion of total chlorophyll throughout most of the region. We conclude that biomass of all phytoplankton fractions, especially pico-and nanoplankton, was constrained by limiting factors, most probably iron, throughout the region and that ecosystem dynamics within a zone are not circumpolar but are regionalized within sectors.  相似文献   

New sets of wavelet-forming functions     

V. G. Alekseev  V. A. Sukhodoev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(5):569-573

One of the most efficient tools of studying meteorological and climatic time series is wavelet analysis, which allows local properties of a nonstationary time series to be examined. New sets of continuous and discrete wavelet-forming functions are proposed. All proposed wavelets are finite (have a bounded carrier), even, and well localized in the spectral space.  相似文献   

Change of multifractal thermal characteristics in the western Philippine sea upper layer during internal wave-soliton propagation     

Peter C. Chu  Chung-Ping Hsieh 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(6):927-939

The upper layer (above 140 m depth) temperature in the western Philippine Sea near Taiwan was sampled using a coastal monitoring buoy (CMB) with 15 attached thermistors during July 28–August 7, 2005. The data were collected every 10 min at 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20 m using the CMB sensors, and every 15 sec at 15 different depths between 25 m and 140 m. Internal waves and solitons were identified from the time-depth plot of the temperature field. Without the internal waves and solitons, the power spectra, structure functions, and singular measures (representing the intermittency) of temperature field satisfy the power law with multi-scale characteristics at all depths. The internal waves do not change the basic characteristics of the multifractal structure. However, the internal solitons change the power exponent of the power spectra drastically, especially in the low wave number domain; they also break down the power law of the structure function and increase the intermittency parameter. The physical mechanisms causing these different effects need to be explored further.  相似文献   

Geomorphological evidence for upslope canyon-forming processes on the northern KwaZulu-Natal shelf,SW Indian Ocean,South Africa     

Andrew N. Green  John A. Goff  Ron Uken 《Geo-Marine Letters》2007,27(6):399-409

A geomorphological and statistical analysis of slope canyons from the northern KwaZulu-Natal continental margin is documented and compared with submarine canyons from the Atlantic margin of the USA. The northern KwaZulu-Natal margin is characterized by increasing upslope relief, concave slope-gradient profiles and features related to upslope growth of the canyon forms. Discounting slope-gradient profile, this morphology is strikingly similar to canyon systems of the New Jersey slope. Several phases of canyon incision indicate that downslope erosion is also an important factor in the evolution of the northern KwaZulu-Natal canyon systems. Despite the strong similarities between the northern KwaZulu-Natal and New Jersey slope-canyon systems, key differences are evident: (1) the concavity of the northern KwaZulu-Natal slope, contrasting with the ∼linear New Jersey slope; (2) the relative isolation of the northern KwaZulu-Natal canyons, rather than the dense clustering of the New Jersey canyons; and (3) the absence of strongly shelf-breaching canyons along the northern KwaZulu-Natal margin. In comparison with the New Jersey margin, we surmise a more youthful stage of canyon evolution, a result of either the canyons themselves being younger or the formative processes being less active. Less complicated patterns of erosion resulting from reduced sediment availability have developed in northern KwaZulu-Natal. The reduction in slope concavity on the New Jersey margin may be the result of grading of the upper slope by intensive headward erosion, a process more subdued—or less evident—on the KwaZulu-Natal margin.  相似文献