Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes     

E. M. Igumnova  I. E. Timchenko 《Physical Oceanography》2004,14(6):348-359

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.  相似文献   

Record-breaking chemical destruction of ozone in the arctic during the winter of 2004/2005     

N. D. Tsvetkova  V. A. Yushkov  A. N. Luk’yanov  V. M. Dorokhov  H. Nakane 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(5):592-598

The extremely cold winter of 2004/2005 was accompanied by an intensive formation of polar stratospheric clouds and a significant chemical destruction of ozone. The results of calculating chemical losses of ozone in the polar cyclone from the SAGE-III satellite data are given. Over the period January 1–March 25, 2005, at the isentropic levels 450–500 K, about 60% of ozone was destroyed. During that winter, the zone of formation of polar stratospheric clouds went down to levels with very low values of potential temperature (down to 350 K), thus resulting in a noticeable destruction of ozone at low altitudes. By March 25, 2005, the chemical losses of total ozone attained 116 ± 10 DU (128 ± 10 DU at the cyclone boundary), which is a recordbreaking value of the Arctic.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of a quasi-tropical cyclone over the Black Sea     

V. V. Efimov  M. V. Shokurov  D. A. Yarovaya 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(6):667-686

The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and its evolution and physical formation mechanisms are discussed. The balances of the momentum components have been estimated, and sensitivity experiments have been performed. It is shown that, according to its main physical properties and energy supply mechanisms, the cyclone can be related to quasi-tropical cyclones.  相似文献   

Third international conference on “Current Problems in Optics of Natural Waters” (ONW’2005)     

I. M. Levin  O. V. Kopelevich  V. Yu. Osadchii 《Oceanology》2007,47(1):141-143

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Assessment of the impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and enstrophy as a diagnostic     

A. R. Lupo  I. I. Mokhov  S. Dostoglou  A. R. Kunz  J. P. Burkhardt 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(1):45-51

It was shown that abrupt changes in the large-scale structure of atmospheric flows may lead to the rapid decay of blocking. Analysis of phase diagrams made it possible to identify when sharp changes occurred in the dynamics of the system. The connection of these changes to the decay of blocking was estimated for three blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to phase diagrams, enstrophy was used as a diagnostic tool for the analysis of blocking events. From the results of this analysis, four scenarios for the decay mechanisms were determined: (i) decay with a lack of synoptic-scale support, (ii) decay with an active role for synoptic processes, and (iii–iv) either of these mechanisms in the interaction with an abrupt change in the character of the planetary-scale flow.  相似文献   

Determination of temperature and humidity of air,wind speed,and sensible and latent heat fluxes on the ocean surface according to the satellite data     

N. A. Timofeev  A. V. Yurovskii 《Physical Oceanography》2007,17(2):113-127

Formulas for the evaluation of temperature and humidity of air, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes on the ocean surface according to the satellite data on the sea-surface temperature and cloudiness are deduced on the basis of the analysis of many-year radiosonde, meteorological, shipborne, and satellite data. The proposed formulas can also be used for the interpretation of the results of remote sensing of the ocean and atmosphere by radiometers in the visible, infrared, and microwave regions. The transformations of radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes are described depending on the sea-surface temperature for various cloudiness conditions. The computed values of the amount of water in the atmosphere agree with the radiosonde data obtained throughout the Earth, including the data of research vessels and stationary weather ships, as well as the data obtained in the ATEP test ranges and in the Arctic. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 56–70, March–April, 2007.  相似文献   

Method and results of assimilation of climatic data on temperature,salinity, and sea level into a numerical model of the Black Sea     

V. V. Knysh  S. G. Demyshev  G. K. Korotaev  A. S. Sarkisyan 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(3):363-377

A method for combined assimilation of climatic hydrologic fields of temperature, salinity, and the climatic dynamic level of the Black Sea into a model of sea dynamics is proposed. The monthly mean fields of the dynamic sea level were obtained from the results of assimilation of satellite altimetry data into the model. The statistical characteristics of errors in the forecasts of the level, salinity, and temperature were assumed to be proportional to the statistical characteristics of the differences between monthly mean climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and sea level calculated by means of assimilating altimetry observations of the sea level and analogous climatic hydrologic fields. The climatic fields of currents are reconstructed and analyzed. The assimilation of the climatic altimetry level allows the reproduction (in current fields) of quasi-stationary synoptic anticyclonic eddies located along the periphery of the Black Sea Rim Current.  相似文献   

Characteristics of tsunami waves in the Black Sea according to the data of measurements     

S. F. Dotsenko  A. V. Ingerov 《Physical Oceanography》2007,17(1):17-28

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Numerical Simulation of Wind Currents and Propagation of Impurities in the Balaklava Bay     

V. V. Fomin  L. N. Repetin 《Physical Oceanography》2005,15(4):232-246

We present the results of numerical experiments aimed at the simulation of the circulation of waters and transport of impurities in the Balaklava Bay for typical wind conditions established on the basis of the analysis of the data of in-situ measurements. The currents are computed by using the nonlinear σ-coordinate model. The specific features of the integral circulation and three-dimensional structure of the current field are investigated. The statistical characteristics of currents are estimated on the basis of the in-situ data on winds and model calculations. Possible scenarios of propagation of impurities from the coastal sources are analyzed for various hydrodynamic conditions. It is shown that the localized eddy structures in the current fields (in combination with the zones of intense vertical motion) can result in a complex character of the transport of substances in the bay and lead to the formation of local regions of maximum concentrations of impurities on the boundary of the north and central parts of the bay. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 43–58, July–August, 2005.  相似文献   

Quantitative distribution of meiobenthos in deep-water zones of the World Ocean     

V. O. Mokievskii  A. A. Udalov  A. I. Azovskii 《Oceanology》2007,47(6):797-813

An analysis of published and original data on the meiobenthos abundance in the depth interval from 100 to 9807 m (in total, 665 records, 445 of them obtained for depths exceeding 1000 m) revealed general regularities in its distribution. The influence of the sampling and data processing methods on the quantitative estimates of the meiobenthos abundance is considered to demonstrate changes in the proportions of the main meiobenthic taxa at different depths and to characterize latitudinal changes in the meiobenthos abundance. The dependence of the abundance of free-living nematodes, the most abundant group of metazoan meiobenthos, on trophic conditions is analyzed. No significant differences in the meiobenthos abundance in the samples obtained by box-and multicorers are established. It is shown that the share of nematodes in metazoan meiobenthos communities increases with the depth. In temperate latitudes, a distinct maximum in the population density confined to depths exceeding 1 km is observed. The quantitative distribution of the meiobenthos at the depths gradient is controlled by the bottom macrotopography and trophic conditions.  相似文献