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161.
时间序列异常值探测的Bayes方法及其在电离层VTEC数据处理中的应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
基于Bayes统计推断理论,提出了自回归模型中异常值定位的Bayes方法;在正态-Gamma先验分布下,分别基于均值漂移模型和方差膨胀模型,提出了后验概率的计算方法,并运用Bayes方法估计了异常扰动;最后将该方法应用到电离层VTEC数据处理的建模中,比较模型修正前后预报的结果,验证了新方法的有效性。 相似文献
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163.
采取了皖北任楼煤矿太原组灰岩和灰岩水样品进行稀土元素测试分析,结果显示灰岩样品稀土总量较低,平均为36.947×10-6,灰岩样品稀土配分模式表现为轻稀土富集、重稀土亏损型;灰岩水样品稀土总量平均为0.052 6×10-6,灰岩水样品轻、重稀土均富集,轻、重稀土之间分异明显。对灰岩含水层水岩相互作用进行研究,结果表明:轻稀土表现稳定,重稀土分异明显,尤其在Y处有一个明显的峰值;Y元素与Ca元素呈正相关关系,相比石灰岩,灰岩水的Y/Ho、Y/Dy分异更为明显。研究认为,灰岩水中Y元素的峰值效应也可作为灰岩水源识别的依据。 相似文献
164.
利用1998—2016年TRMM和CMORPH两种遥感卫星资料降水和同期三峡库区气象观测站数据,通过比较干、支流和远、近库区气象站点的降水变化和蓄水前后降水量、雨日、降水强度和频率等变化特征,分析评估了基于两种卫星遥感降水和测站降水的三峡库区局地降水变化。结果表明:库区TRMM和CMORPH卫星降水年际变化特征总体上与气象观测站相符,反演效果在日尺度TRMM略逊于CMORPH,在季尺度CMORPH略逊于TRMM;两种卫星资料对冬季降水反演效果都偏弱。三峡库区干流和支流站点的降水变化总体一致,干、支流各站点降水量均具有较强的年际变化特征。TRMM相比CMORPH更能重现干、支流测站降水的年际变化特征,CMORPH降水年际波动振幅总体上比测站偏大。蓄水前后时段(1998—2003年与2004—2016年)对比,从不同等级降水的强度和雨日、季节降水频率和总量等变化反演效果来看,CMORPH资料分布相比TRMM更接近测站的变化趋势,反演效果略优于TRMM;但两种卫星资料的降水频率和降水量分布与测站的误差在蓄水前后变化都不明显。此外,气象测站、TRMM、CMORPH资料都表现出蓄水后三峡远、近库区年降水量的比值呈平稳波动状态,表明三峡水库蓄水后附近地区降水没有明显变化。 相似文献
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166.
The Petalodontiformes are a small intriguing group of Permo–Carboniferous chondrichthyans. Petalodus is the longest known petalodont genus generally considered representative of the order. The first definite fossil record of seven well-preserved Petalodus teeth has been found in the Qianshi limestone in the Lower Permian(Cisuralian) middle–upper Taiyuan Formation in Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, North China. The specimens are characterized by petal-shaped teeth with a spade-like crown, and a long, tongue-shaped root; the crown is circled with a band or cingulum composed of imbricated ridges at the base. All seven teeth are assigned to the species P. ohioenesis because of their vertically narrow cingulum and much longer root. Petalodus is a worldwide genus, with fossil localities mainly concentrated in the Laurussia supercontinent. The occurrence of Petalodus teeth in Yangquan not only is the first fossil record in China, but also only the second record in Asia. The Yangquan fossil site was part of the paleoequatorial North China Craton during the Early Permian, and was isolated from Laurusia and East Gondwana by the Paleo-Tethys Ocean. The successful dispersal of Petalodus from Laurusia to the North China Block along Paleo-Tethys may support the possibility that Petalodus taxa were active free-swimmers rather than bottom dwellers. The new finding increases the petalodont diversity in eastern Asia, and also sheds new light on the distribution and stratigraphic range. 相似文献
167.
Mg同位素体系被证明在示踪硅酸盐矿物风化方面颇具优势.通过总结近年来大陆硅酸盐风化过程中Mg同位素地球化学的研究,归纳出以下认识:①化学风化方面,原生矿物溶解使得液相的Mg同位素组成变轻,而固相残留的Mg同位素组成变重;次生矿物中含有两种形态的Mg(交换态Mg和结构态Mg),二者δ26Mg不同,次生矿物形成过程中Mg同位素分馏方向与矿物种类、结构和形成机制等因素有关;黏土矿物吸附和解吸Mg2+引起Mg同位素分馏,但方向尚不确定;土壤可交换复合物倾向于优先吸附和解吸26Mg.②物理风化方面,水流、风等造成的矿物分选会引起风化产物Mg同位素组成发生变化.③植物—土壤体系Mg同位素的分馏很小.目前,大陆硅酸盐风化中一些重要过程的Mg同位素地球化学行为还存在争议,亟待通过室内试验、模拟计算,以及与其他同位素联用等途径完善理论基础,推动Mg同位素在示踪大陆风化中的广泛应用. 相似文献
168.
Xiongqi Pang Chengzao Jia Junqing Chen Maowen Li Wenyang Wang Qinhong Hu Yingchun Guo Zhangxin Chen Junwen Peng Keyu Liu Keliu Wu 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(2):695-711
The discovery and large-scale exploration of unconventional oil/gas resources since 1980s have been considered as the most important advancement in the history of petroleum geology;that has not only changed the balance of supply and demand in the global energy market,but also improved our understanding of the formation mechanisms and distribution characteristics of oil/gas reservoirs.However,what is the difference of conventional and unconventional resources and why they always related to each other in petroliferous basins is not clear.As the differences and correlations between unconventional and conventional resources are complex challenging issues and very critical for resources assessment and hydrocarbon exploration,this paper focused on studying the relationship of formations and distributions among different oil/gas reservoirs.Drilling results of 12,237 exploratory wells in 6 representative petroliferous basins of China and distribution characteristics for 52,926 oil/gas accumulations over the world were applied to clarify the formation conditions and genetic relations of different oil/gas reservoirs in a petroliferous basin,and then to establish a unified model to address the differences and correlations of conventional and unconventional reservoirs.In this model,conventional reservoirs formed in free hydrocarbon dynamic field with high porosity and permeability located above the boundary of hydrocarbon buoyancy-driven accumulation depth limit.Unconventional tight reservoirs formed in confined hydrocarbon dynamic field with low porosity and permeability located between hydrocarbon buoyancy-driven accumulation depth limit and hydrocarbon accumulation depth limit.Shale oil/gas reservoirs formed in the bound hydrocarbon dynamic field with low porosity and ultra-low permeability within the source rock layers.More than 75%of proved reserves around the world are discovered in the free hydrocarbon dynamic field,which is estimated to contain only 10%of originally generated hydrocarbons.Most of undiscovered resources distributed in the confined hydrocarbon dynamic field and the bound hydrocarbon dynamic field,which contains 90%of original generated hydrocarbons,implying a reasonable and promising area for future hydrocarbon explorations.The buried depths of hydrocarbon dynamic fields become shallow with the increase of heat flow,and the remaining oil/gas resources mainly exist in the deep area of“cold basin”with low geothermal gradient.Lithology changing in the hydrocarbon dynamic field causes local anomalies in the oil/gas dynamic mechanism,leading to the local formation of unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the free hydrocarbon dynamic field or the occurrence of oil/gas enrichment sweet points with high porosity and permeability in the confined hydrocarbon dynamic field.The tectonic movements destroy the medium conditions and oil/gas components,which leads to the transformation of conventional oil/gas reservoirs formed in free hydrocarbon dynamic field to unconventional ones or unconventional ones formed in confined and bound hydrocarbon dynamic fields to conventional ones. 相似文献
169.
Grain-size distribution data,as a substitute for measuring hydraulic conductivity(K),has often been used to get K value indirectly.With grain-size distribution data of 150 sets of samples being input data,this study combined the Artificial Neural Network technology(ANN)and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method(MCMC),which replaced the Monte Carlo method(MC)of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation(GLUE),to establish the GLUE-ANN model for hydraulic conductivity prediction and uncertainty analysis.By means of applying the GLUE-ANN model to a typical piedmont region and central region of North China Plain,and being compared with actually measured values of hydraulic conductivity,the relative error ranges are between 1.55%and 23.53%and between 14.08%and 27.22%respectively,the accuracy of which can meet the requirements of groundwater resources assessment.The global best parameter gained through posterior distribution test indicates that the GLUEANN model,which has satisfying sampling efficiency and optimization capability,is able to reasonably reflect the uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters.Furthermore,the influence of stochastic observation error(SOE)in grain-size analysis upon prediction of hydraulic conductivity was discussed,and it is believed that the influence can not be neglected. 相似文献
170.
当前,地理国情监测制度的"四进"建设是常态化地理国情监测的重要研究内容。"进规划"是"四进"建设中的基础性工作。本文分析了"进规划"的必要性,调研了国家和地方层面地理国情监测"四进"制度中"进规划"的建设进展,分析了目前国家与地方层面"进规划"建设存在的不足与短板,重点对省级推进地理国情监测"进规划"制度建设提出若干建议。 相似文献