High-frequency maximum observable shaking map of Italy from fault sources     

Gaetano Zonno  Roberto Basili  Fabrizio Meroni  Gemma Musacchio  P. Martin Mai  Gianluca Valensise 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2012,10(4):1075-1107

We present a strategy for obtaining fault-based maximum observable shaking (MOS) maps, which represent an innovative concept for assessing deterministic seismic ground motion at a regional scale. Our approach uses the fault sources supplied for Italy by the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources, and particularly by its composite seismogenic sources (CSS), a spatially continuous simplified 3-D representation of a fault system. For each CSS, we consider the associated Typical Fault, i.e., the portion of the corresponding CSS that can generate the maximum credible earthquake. We then compute the high-frequency (1–50?Hz) ground shaking for a rupture model derived from its associated maximum credible earthquake. As the Typical Fault floats within its CSS to occupy all possible positions of the rupture, the high-frequency shaking is updated in the area surrounding the fault, and the maximum from that scenario is extracted and displayed on a map. The final high-frequency MOS map of Italy is then obtained by merging 8,859 individual scenario-simulations, from which the ground shaking parameters have been extracted. To explore the internal consistency of our calculations and validate the results of the procedure we compare our results (1) with predictions based on the Next Generation Attenuation ground-motion equations for an earthquake of M_w 7.1, (2) with the predictions of the official Italian seismic hazard map, and (3) with macroseismic intensities included in the DBMI04 Italian database. We then examine the uncertainties and analyse the variability of ground motion for different fault geometries and slip distributions.  相似文献   

Ground motion observations and simulation for local earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area     

Danilo Galluzzo  Francesca Bianco  Mario La Rocca  Gaetano Zonno 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(7):1903-1916

Ground motion produced by low magnitude earthquakes can be used to predict peak values in high seismic risk areas where large earthquakes data are not available. In the present work 20 local earthquakes (M_D∈[?0.3, 2.2]) occurred in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decade were analyzed. We followed this strategy: empirical relations were used to calibrate synthetic modeling, accounting for the source features and wave propagation effects. Once the source and path parameters of ground motion simulation were obtained from the reference data set, we extrapolated scenarios for stronger earthquakes for which real data are not available. The procedure is structured in two steps: (1) evaluation of ground motion prediction equation for Campi Flegrei area and assessment of input parameters for the source, path and site effects in order to use the finite fault stochastic approach (EXSIM code); (2) simulation of two moderate-to-large earthquake scenarios for which only historical data or partial information are available (M_w4.2 and M_w5.4). The results show that the investigated area is characterized by high attenuation of peak amplitude and not negligible site effects. The stochastic approach has revealed a good tool to calibrate source, path and site parameters on small earthquakes and to generate large earthquake scenario. The investigated magnitude range represents a lower limit to apply the stochastic method as a calibration tool, due to the small size of involved faults (fault length around 200/300 m).  相似文献   

Seismic demand on light acceleration‐sensitive nonstructural components in European reinforced concrete buildings          下载免费PDF全文

Crescenzo Petrone  Gennaro Magliulo  Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(8):1203-1217

In this paper, a parametric study is conducted in order to evaluate the seismic demand on light acceleration‐sensitive nonstructural components caused by frequent earthquakes. The study is motivated by the inconsistent approach of current building codes to the design of nonstructural components; the extensive nonstructural damage recorded after recent low‐intensity earthquakes also encouraged such a study. A set of reinforced concrete frame structures with different number of stories, that is, 1 to 10 stories, are selected and designed according to Eurocode 8. The structures are subjected to a set of frequent earthquakes, that is, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Dynamic nonlinear analyses are performed on the reference structures in order to assess the accuracy of the equations to predict seismic forces acting on nonstructural components and systems in Eurocode. It is concluded that the Eurocode equations underestimate the acceleration demand on nonstructural components for a wide range of periods, especially in the vicinity of the higher mode periods of vibration of the reference structures; for periods sufficiently larger than the fundamental period of the structure, instead, the Eurocode formulation gives a good approximation of the floor spectra. Finally, a novel formulation is proposed for an easy implementation in future building codes based on the actual Eurocode provisions. The proposed formulation gives a good estimation of the floor spectral accelerations and is able to envelope the floor spectral peaks owing to the higher modes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing reparability: simple tools for estimation of costs and performance loss of earthquake damaged reinforced concrete buildings          下载免费PDF全文

Maria Polese  Marco Di Ludovico  Marco Marcolini  Andrea Prota  Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(10):1539-1557

Tools for assessing building reparability via the estimation of expected performance loss (PL) and associated costs for repair of existing RC building classes damaged by an earthquake are presented. The assessment approach relies on the availability of a number of suitably developed: (i) capacity curves for representative building classes; (ii) curves relating global ductility demand μ to the expected PL for the same classes; and (iii) PL–cost for repair relationship calibrated on database collecting cost data of more than 2300 buildings damaged after 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. The tools are developed applying a simplified procedure involving the simulated design of existing building classes, the assumption of predefined collapse mechanism types and the analyses of the seismic behavior of equivalent SDOF systems representative of ‘intact’ and ‘damaged’ structures after an earthquake. The use of these tools may give useful preliminary indications to decision makers for establishing reparability priorities in the aftermath of damaging earthquakes or to insurance companies to value sound insurance premium for existing building classes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment          下载免费PDF全文

Hossein Ebrahimian  Fatemeh Jalayer  Domenico Asprone  Anna M. Lombardi  Warner Marzocchi  Andrea Prota  Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(14):2179-2197

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Bayesian Cloud Analysis: efficient structural fragility assessment using linear regression   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Fatemeh Jalayer  Raffaele De Risi  Gaetano Manfredi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(4):1183-1203

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Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy     

M. Murru  R. Console  G. Falcone   《Tectonophysics》2009,470(3-4):214-223

We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of M_l ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km² around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an M_l ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km² is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.  相似文献   

Momentum and energy transport in the Sun's convection zone under the observational constraint of flux and temperature homogeneity at the surface     

Gaetano Belvedere  Lucio Paternò 《Solar physics》1978,60(1):203-206

A previous authors' non-Boussinesq model of solar differential rotation (BPCM) is used to determine the angular velocity distribution within the convection zone, when the momentum and energy equations are solved with boundary conditions expressing the homogeneity of flux and temperature at the Sun's surface.  相似文献   

Some SH-wave seismic reflections from depths of less than three metres     

Gian Piero Deidda  Gaetano Ranieri 《Geophysical Prospecting》2001,49(5):499-508

Shallow SH-wave reflections are far from routine, although their study can provide insights into important properties of near-surface materials that cannot be inferred from P-wave data alone. Difficulties in separating SH-wave reflections from Love waves are generally considered the major obstacle to progress in shallow SH-wave seismic reflection. This may be the case in surveys undertaken at great depths, but it is not necessarily true for reflection data gathered at shallow and ultra-shallow depths. This paper shows that when SH-wave data possess wavelengths greater than the thickness of the superficial layer, Love waves are not greatly dispersed. In this case, misinterpretation between parts of reflection hyperbolae and waveguide arrivals is sufficiently limited. In a one-layer model earth, which well approximates typical situations of the near-surface underground, the most energetic modes (the lowermost modes) of the dispersed surface waves have a dominant frequency band that falls below the wavelet spectrum of the shallow reflections; therefore, they can be filtered out in the frequency domain. Higher modes, although their spectral content overlaps that of the reflections, exhibit small amplitudes on seismograms and leave strong reflections unaffected.We present field examples from three different sites where we were able to obtain ultra-shallow reflections (< 3 m) in unconsolidated sediments. The high level of resolution (vertical resolution up to 15 cm) suggests that SH-wave reflection imaging has the potential to complement other high-resolution techniques, such as P-wave reflection and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) imaging, allowing a better and more complete characterization of the near-surface environments.  相似文献   

On the influence of nonlinearities on the eigenfrequencies of five-minute oscillations of the Sun     

Gaetano Belvedere  Douglas Gough  Lucio Paternò 《Solar physics》1983,82(1-2):343-354

Fitting the results of linear normal-mode analysis of the solar five-minute oscillations to the observed k - ω diagram selects a class of models of the Sun's envelope. It is a property of all the models in this class that their convection zones are too deep to permit substantial transmission of internal g modes of degree 20 or more. This is in apparent conflict with Hill and Caudell's (1979) claim to have detected such modes in the photosphere. A proposal to resolve the conflict was made by Rosenwald and Hill (1980). They pointed out that despite the impressive agreement between linearized theory and observation, nonlinear phenomena in the solar atmosphere might influence the eigenfrequencies considerably. In particular, they suggested that a correct nonlinear analysis could predict a shallow convection zone. This paper is an enquiry into whether their hypothesis is plausible. We construct k - ω diagrams assuming that the modes suffer local nonlinear distortions in the atmosphere that are insensitive to the amplitude of oscillation over the range of amplitudes that are observed. The effect of the nonlinearities on the eigenfrequencies is parameterized in a simple way. Taking a class of simple analytical models of the Sun's envelope, we compute the linear eigenfrequencies of one model and show that no other model can be found whose nonlinear eigenfrequencies agree with them. We show also that the nonlinear eigenfrequencies of a particular solar model with a shallow convective zone, computed with more realistic physics, cannot be made to agree with observation. We conclude, therefore, that the hypothesis of Rosenwald and Hill is unlikely to be correct.  相似文献