Impact of prescribed Arctic sea ice thickness in simulations of the present and future climate     

Gerhard Krinner  Annette Rinke  Klaus Dethloff  Irina V. Gorodetskaya 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(4):619-633

This paper describes atmospheric general circulation model climate change experiments in which the Arctic sea-ice thickness is either fixed to 3 m or somewhat more realistically parameterized in order to take into account essentially the spatial variability of Arctic sea-ice thickness, which is, to a first approximation, a function of ice type (perennial or seasonal). It is shown that, both at present and at the end of the twenty-first century (under the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas scenario), the impact of a variable sea-ice thickness compared to a uniform value is essentially limited to the cold seasons and the lower troposphere. However, because first-year ice is scarce in the Central Arctic today, but not under SRES-A1B conditions at the end of the twenty-first century, and because the impact of a sea-ice thickness reduction can be masked by changes of the open water fraction, the spatial and temporal patterns of the effect of sea-ice thinning on the atmosphere differ between the two periods considered. As a consequence, not only the climate simulated at a given period, but also the simulated Arctic climate change over the twenty-first century is affected by the way sea-ice thickness is prescribed.  相似文献   

中国季降水量的气候噪声和潜在可预报性估计   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

赵晓川  吴洪宝  何浪 《南京气象学院学报》2008,31(6):819-827

利用中国130个测站1961—2004年的日降水量资料,使用低频白噪声延伸法和方差分析法估计了中国季降水量的气候噪声方差和潜在可预报性。结果表明：中国季降水量的气候噪声方差由南向北、由沿海向内陆逐渐减小,且有明显的季节变化,夏季最高,其次是春秋季,冬季最小,而且内陆的季节变化比东南沿海的季节变化显著。季降水量的潜在可预报性有较大的季节和区域差异,但总体来说,全国大部分地区的季降水量是潜在可预报的。以绝对误差小于均方差0.68倍作为预测正确标准,全国大部分地区季降水量的预报正确率上限为50%-60%。  相似文献   

Outward transport of CAIs during FU‐Orionis events     

Gerhard WURM  Henning HAACK 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(5):689-699

Abstract— Evidence from meteorites shows that the first solids to form in the solar system, calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs), were transported outward from the Sun by several AU in the early solar system. We introduce a new concept of levitation and outward transport of CAIs at the surface of protoplanetary disks. Thermal radiation from the disk and the Sun can cause particles to levitate above the disk and drift outward through a process known as photophoresis. During normal conditions this process only works for dust‐sized particles but during high luminosity events like FU‐Orionis outbursts, the process can provide an efficient lift and transport of CAIs from within the inner 1 AU to a distance of several AU from the Sun. This might explain why CAIs, believed to have formed close to the Sun, are common in meteorites believed to come from the outer asteroid belt but are rare or absent in samples from the inner solar system. Since the process only works during the FU‐Orionis event and only for particles up to cm‐size, it may also explain why the CAIs we find in meteorites appear to have formed within a short period of time and why they rarely exceed cm size.  相似文献   

Impact of climate and CO₂ on a millennium-long tree-ring carbon isotope record     

Kerstin S. Treydte  David C. Frank  Gerhard Helle  Jan Esper 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(16):4635-7303

We present one millennium-long (1171-year), and three 100 year long annually resolved δ¹³C tree-ring chronologies from ecologically varying Juniperus stands in the Karakorum Mountains (northern Pakistan), and evaluate their response to climatic and atmospheric CO₂ changes. All δ¹³C records show a gradual decrease since the beginning of the 19th century, which is commonly associated with a depletion of atmospheric δ¹³C due to fossil fuel burning. Climate calibration of high-frequency δ¹³C variations indicates a pronounced summer temperature signal for all sites. The low-frequency component of the same records, however, deviates from long-term temperature trends, even after correction for changes in anthropogenic CO₂. We hypothesize that these high-elevation trees show a response to both climate and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the latter might explain the offset with target temperature data. We applied several corrections to tree-ring δ¹³C records, considering a range of potential CO₂ discrimination changes over the past 150 years and calculated the goodness of fit with the target via calibration/verification tests (R², residual trend, and Durbin-Watson statistics). These tests revealed that at our sites, carbon isotope fixation on longer timescales is affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at a discrimination rate of about 0.012‰/ppmv. Although this statistically derived value may be site related, our findings have implications for the interpretation of any long-term trends in climate reconstructions using tree-ring δ¹³C, as we demonstrate with our millennium-long δ¹³C Karakorum record. While we find indications for warmth during the Medieval Warm Period (higher than today’s mean summer temperature), we also show that the low-frequency temperature pattern critically depends on the correction applied. Patterns of long-term climate variation, including the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and 20th century warmth are most similar to existing evidence when a strong influence of increased atmospheric CO₂ on plant physiology is assumed.  相似文献   

Rapid and cyclic aeolian deposition during the Last Glacial in European loess: a high-resolution record from Nussloch, Germany   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Pierre Antoine  Denis-Didier Rousseau  Olivier Moine  Stphane Kunesch  Christine Hatt  Andreas Lang  Hlne Tissoux  Ludwig Zller 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(25-26):2955-2973

This paper reports the results of an investigation of the Weichselian Upper Pleniglacial loess sequences of Nussloch (Rhine Valley, Germany) based on stratigraphy, palaeopedology, sedimentology, palynology, malacology and geochemistry (δ¹³C), supported by radiocarbon, TL and OSL dating. Grain-size and magnetic susceptibility records are taken at 5 cm intervals from the Upper Pleniglacial (UPG) loess. The data indicate cyclic variations in loess deposition between ca 34 and 17 ka, when the sedimentation rate is especially high (1.0–1.2 m per ka for more than 10 m). The grain-size index (GSI: ratio of coarse silt versus fine silt and clay) shows variations, which are assumed to be an indirect measurement of wind intensity. The sedimentation rate, interpreted from the profiles, indicates high values in loess (Loess events LE-1 to LE-7) and low or negligible values in tundra gley horizons G1 to G8. OSL ages from the loess and ¹⁴C dates from organic matter in the loess show that loess deposition was rapid but was interrupted by shorter periods of reduced aeolian sedimentation. Comparison between the data from Nussloch and other European sequences demonstrates a progressive coarsening of the loess deposits between ca 30 and 22 ka. This coarsening trend ends with a short but major grain-size decrease and is followed by an increase to a new maximum at 20 ± 2 ka (“W” shape). Correlation between the loess GSI and the Greenland ice-core dust records, suggests a global connection between North Atlantic and Western European global atmospheric circulation and wind regimes. In addition, the typical Upper Pleniglacial loess deposition begins at ca 30–31 ka, close to Heinrich event (HE) 3, and the main period of loess sedimentation at about 25 ± 2 ka is coeval to HE 2. Correlation of magnetic susceptibility and grain-size records shows that the periods, characterised by high GSI, coincide with an increase in the amount of ferromagnetic minerals reworked from the Rhine alluvial plain. They suggest enhancement in the frequency of the storms from N–NW. These results are integrated within a palaeogeographical model of dust transport and deposition in Western Europe for the Weichselian Upper Pleniglacial (or Late Pleniglacial).  相似文献   

Spectral and geological study of the sulfate-rich region of West Candor Chasma, Mars     

Nicolas Mangold  Aline Gendrin  Stephane LeMouelic  Véronique Ansan  Yves Langevin  Gerhard Neukum 《Icarus》2008,194(2):519-543

Sulfates have been discovered by the OMEGA spectrometer in different locations of the planet Mars. They are strongly correlated to light toned layered deposits in the equatorial regions. West Candor Chasma is the canyon with the thickest stack of layers and one with the largest area covered by sulfates. A detailed study coupling mineralogy derived from OMEGA spectral data and geology derived from HRSC imager and other datasets leads to some straightforward issues. The monohydrated sulfate kieserite is found mainly over heavily eroded scarps of light toned material. It likely corresponds to a mineral present in the initial rock formed either during formation and diagenesis of sediments, or during hydrothermal alteration at depth, because it is typically found on outcrops that are eroded and steep. Polyhydrated sulfates, that match any Ca-, Na-, Fe-, or Mg-sulfates with more than one water molecule, are preferentially present on less eroded and darker outcrops than outcrops of kieserite. These variations can be the result of a diversity in the composition and/or of the rehydration of kieserite on surfaces with longer exposure. The latter possibility of rehydration in the current, or recent, atmosphere suggests the low surface temperatures preserve sulfates from desiccation, and, also can rehydrate part of them. Strong signatures of iron oxides are present on sulfate-rich scarps and at the base of layered deposits scarps. They are correlated with TES gray hematite signature and might correspond to iron oxides present in the rock as sand-size grains, or possibly larger concretions, that are eroded and transported down by gravity at the base of the scarp. Pyroxenes are present mainly on sand dunes in the low lying terrains. Pyroxene is strongly depleted or absent in the layered deposits. When mixed with kieserite, local observations favor a spatial mixing with dunes over layered deposits. Sulfates such as those detected in the studied area require the presence of liquid water to form by precipitation, either in an intermittent lacustrine environment or by hydrothermal fluid circulation. Both possibilities require the presence of sulfur-rich groundwater to explain fluid circulation. The elevation of the uppermost sulfate signatures suggests the presence of aquifers up to 2.5 km above datum, only 1 km below the plateau surface.  相似文献   

Dark matter content and internal dynamics of NGC 4697: nmagic particle models from slit data and planetary nebula velocities     

Flavio De Lorenzi  Ortwin Gerhard  Roberto P. Saglia  Niranjan Sambhus  Victor P. Debattista †  Maurilio Pannella  Roberto H. Méndez 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,385(4):1729-1748

  相似文献   

Comparison of Meteoroid Flux Models for Near Earth Space     

Gerhard Drolshagen  Valeri Dikarev  Markus Landgraf  Holger Krag  Wim Kuiper 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):191-197

Over the last decade several new models for the sporadic interplanetary meteoroid flux have been developed. These include the Divine-Staubach and the Dikarev model. They typically cover mass ranges from 10⁻¹⁸ g to 1 g and are applicable for model specific Sun distance ranges between 0.1 AU and 20 AU Near 1 AU averaged fluxes (over direction and velocities) for all these models are tuned to the well established interplanetary model by Grün et al. However, in many respects these models differ considerably. Examples are the velocity and directional distributions and the assumed meteoroid sources. In this paper flux predictions by the various models to Earth orbiting spacecraft are compared. Main differences are presented and analysed. The persisting differences even for near Earth space can be seen as surprising in view of the numerous ground based (optical and radar) and in situ (captured Inter Stellar Dust Particles, in situ detectors and analysis of retrieved hardware) measurements and simulations.  相似文献   

基于地震波速度预测岩体物性参数模型与应用     

王大兴  赵兴华  孟凡彬  郎玉泉 《中国煤炭地质》2019,(4):71-74,79

以地震属性和钻孔测井参数为基础,依据试验数据构建数学模型,实现对煤层顶底板岩石物性参数的定量预测。通过试验拟合出纵横波波速之间关系、波速与密度的关系、动静杨氏模量、动静泊松比之间的关系,且相关程度较高。依据试验模拟结果对淮南刘庄区煤层顶底板岩石物性参数及孔隙度进行了预测。结果表明该地区的物性参数分布规律明显,且与实测结果吻合较好。模型计算与实例应用证实地震信息用于预测岩石力学参数具有可行性。  相似文献   

Pembrokeshire,South Wales          下载免费PDF全文

Howard Falcon‐Lang 《Geology Today》2018,34(3):113-120

Unravelling the geology of Pembrokeshire (southwest Wales) has been a rite of passage for British undergraduate students for generations. A favourite destination for an Easter fieldtrip, this complex region contains diverse geology of late Precambrian to Carboniferous age. In the course of a five‐day excursion, a student can uncover evidence for two plate tectonic cycles: the birth of the early Palaeozoic Iapetus Ocean and its death in the Caledonian Orogen, and the reworking of the late Palaeozoic Rheic back‐arc basins on the northern margins of the Variscides. In doing so, there is an opportunity to examine highly variable palaeoenvironments including the deposits of alluvial fans, flood plains, deltas, estuaries, carbonate shelves and deeper marine settings, as well as developing fundamental field skills in geological mapping, structural analysis and sedimentary logging. In this article, I introduce the fascinating story of the geological evolution of Pembrokeshire and describe some of the classic localities useful for basic geological training.  相似文献