Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources Management in the Rhine Basin   总被引：18，自引：2，他引：18  

H. Middelkoop  K. Daamen  D. Gellens  W. Grabs  J. C. J. Kwadijk  H. Lang  B. W. A. H. Parmet  B. Schädler  J. Schulla  K. Wilke 《Climatic change》2001,49(1-2):105-128

The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR) hascarried out a researchproject to assess the impact of climate change on the river flow conditionsin the Rhine basin. Along abottom-up line, different detailed hydrological models with hourly and dailytime steps have beendeveloped for representative sub-catchments of the Rhine basin. Along atop-down line, a water balancemodel for the entire Rhine basin has been developed, which calculates monthlydischarges and which wastested on the scale of the major tributaries of the Rhine. Using this set ofmodels, the effects of climatechange on the discharge regime in different parts of the Rhine basin werecalculated using the results ofUKHI and XCCC GCM-experiments. All models indicate the same trends in thechanges: higher winterdischarge as a result of intensified snow-melt and increased winterprecipitation, and lower summerdischarge due to the reduced winter snow storage and an increase ofevapotranspiration. When the resultsare considered in more detail, however, several differences show up. These canfirstly be attributed todifferent physical characteristics of the studied areas, but different spatialand temporal scales used in themodelling and different representations of several hydrological processes(e.g., evapotranspiration,snow melt) are responsible for the differences found as well. Climate changecan affect various socio-economicsectors. Higher temperatures may threaten winter tourism in the lower wintersport areas. The hydrologicalchanges will increase flood risk during winter, whilst low flows during summerwill adversely affectinland navigation, and reduce water availability for agriculture and industry.Balancing the required actionsagainst economic cost and the existing uncertainties in the climate changescenarios, a policy of `no-regretand flexibility' in water management planning and design is recommended, whereanticipatory adaptivemeasures in response to climate change impacts are undertaken in combinationwith ongoing activities.  相似文献   

European Surface Pressure Patterns for Months with Outstanding Climatic Anomalies During the Sixteenth Century     

Jucundus Jacobeit  Heinz Wanner  Gerhard Koslowski  Martin Gudd 《Climatic change》1999,43(1):201-221

Monthly mean surface pressure patterns in the European area are reconstructed for those winter and summer seasons of the 16th century with outstanding climatic anomalies being either widespread over Europe or remarkably intensive in some European regions. From the available documentary information about weather characteristics and their sequences, it proved possible to infer prevalent processes of lower tropospheric advection of typical air masses and to assess the position and strength of major surface pressure centres on a monthly scale. For comparison with modern pressure patterns, monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) grids from the 20th century have been selected for seasons with similar climatic anomalies. There are broad coincidences between these pressure patterns of the 16th and the 20th centuries except for cold summer seasons. Finally, results from the 16th century are discussed in terms of circulation dynamics (different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter, decreasing frequency of anticyclonic ridging in summer).  相似文献   

Internal morphology, habit and U-Th-Pb microanalysis of amphibolite-to-granulite facies zircons: geochronology of the Ivrea Zone (Southern Alps)   总被引：52，自引：2，他引：50  

Gerhard Vavra  Rolf Schmid  Dieter Gebauer 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1999,134(4):380-404

Several types of growth morphologies and alteration mechanisms of zircon crystals in the high-grade metamorphic Ivrea Zone (IZ) are distinguished and attributed to magmatic, metamorphic and fluid-related events. Anatexis of pelitic metasediments in the IZ produced prograde zircon overgrowths on detrital cores in the restites and new crystallization of magmatic zircons in the associated leucosomes. The primary morphology and Th-U chemistry of the zircon overgrowth in the restites show a systematic variation apparently corresponding to the metamorphic grade: prismatic (prism-blocked) low-Th/U types in the upper amphibolite facies, stubby (fir-tree zoned) medium-Th/U types in the transitional facies and isometric (roundly zoned) high-Th/U types in the granulite facies. The primary crystallization ages of prograde zircons in the restites and magmatic zircons in the leucosomes cannot be resolved from each other, indicating that anatexis in large parts of the IZ was a single and short lived event at 299 ± 5 Ma (95% c. l.). Identical U/Pb ages of magmatic zircons from a metagabbro (293 ± 6 Ma) and a metaperidotite (300 ± 6 Ma) from the Mafic Formation confirm the genetic context of magmatic underplating and granulite facies anatexis in the IZ. The U-Pb age of 299 ± 5 Ma from prograde zircon overgrowths in the metasediments also shows that high-grade metamorphic (anatectic) conditions in the IZ did not start earlier than 20 Ma after the Variscan amphibolite facies metamorphism in the adjacent Strona–Ceneri Zone (SCZ). This makes it clear that the SCZ cannot represent the middle to upper crustal continuation of the IZ. Most parts of zircon crystals that have grown during the granulite facies metamorphism became affected by alteration and Pb-loss. Two types of alteration and Pb-loss mechanisms can be distinguished by cathodoluminescence imaging: zoning-controlled alteration (ZCA) and surface-controlled alteration (SCA). The ZCA is attributed to thermal and/or decompression pulses during extensional unroofing in the Permian, at or earlier than 249 ± 7 Ma. The SCA is attributed to the ingression of fluids at 210 ± 12 Ma, related to hydrothermal activity during the breakup of the Pangaea supercontinent in the Upper Triassic/Lower Jurassic. Received: 7 July 1998 / Accepted: 4 November 1998  相似文献   

Theoretical discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations for a Negative Binomial process paradox     

M. Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(3):183-200

The idea of an over-threshold sampling is to retain all the events of a time-series exceeding a given threshold. The probabilistic analysis implies estimating two statistical models, one describing the occurrence of the events (date of the events), the other describing their magnitude (value of the local maximum). These two models are then combined to obtain the distribution of the annual maxima. A well-known result of a Poisson process is that waiting time, defined as the duration between two successive events exceeding the threshold, is exponentially distributed. The assertion that the waiting time of a Negative Binomial process is also exponentially distributed seems to be in obvious contradiction with the Poisson process properties. A theoretical discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations are presented to solve this apparent paradox.  相似文献   

Diseases and parasites of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Mecklenburg Bight to the Estonian coast     

Mellergaard  S.; Lang  T. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1999,56(2):164-168

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Statistical facies classification from multiple seismic attributes: comparison between Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method and application in petrophysical inversion          下载免费PDF全文

Dario Grana  Xiaozheng Lang  Wenting Wu 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(2):544-562

We present here a comparison between two statistical methods for facies classifications: Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method. The classification can be performed using multiple seismic attributes and can be extended from well logs to three‐dimensional volumes. In this work, we propose, for both methods, a sensitivity study to investigate the impact of the choice of seismic attributes used to condition the classification. In the second part, we integrate the facies classification in a Bayesian inversion setting for the estimation of continuous rock properties, such as porosity and lithological fractions, from the same set of seismic attributes. The advantage of the expectation–maximization method is that this algorithm does not require a training dataset, which is instead required in a traditional Bayesian classifier and still provides similar results. We show the application, comparison, and analysis of these methods in a real case study in the North Sea, where eight sedimentological facies have been defined. The facies classification is computed at the well location and compared with the sedimentological profile and then extended to the 3D reservoir model using up to 14 seismic attributes.  相似文献   

Effect of irregular structural configuration on floor acceleration demand in hill‐side buildings          下载免费PDF全文

Mitesh Surana  Yogendra Singh  Dominik H. Lang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(10):2032-2054

A suite of reinforced‐concrete frame buildings located on hill sides, with 2 different structural configurations, viz step‐back and split‐foundation, are analyzed to study their floor response. Both step‐back and split‐foundation structural configurations lead to torsional effects in the direction across the slope due to the presence of shorter columns on the uphill side. Peak floor acceleration and floor response spectra are obtained at each storey's center of rigidity and at both its stiff and flexible edges. As reported in previous studies as well, it is observed that the floor response spectra are better correlated with the ground response spectrum. Therefore, the floor spectral amplification functions are obtained as the ratio of spectral ordinates at different floor levels to the one at the ground level. Peaks are observed in the spectral amplification functions corresponding to the first 2 modes in the upper portion of the hill‐side buildings, whereas a single peak corresponding to a specific kth mode of vibration is observed on the floors below the uppermost foundation level. Based on the numerical study for the step‐back and split‐foundation hill‐side buildings, simple floor spectral amplification functions are proposed and validated. The proposed spectral amplification functions take into account both the buildings' plan and elevation irregularities and can be used for seismic design of acceleration‐sensitive nonstructural components, given that the supporting structure's dynamic characteristics, torsional rotation, ground‐motion response spectrum, and location of the nonstructural components within the supporting structure are known, because current code models are actually not applicable to hill‐side buildings.  相似文献   

西南某岩溶区地下水系统示踪试验与解析     

张浪  李俊  潘晓东  黄晓荣  彭聪 《中国岩溶》2020,39(1):42-47

以西南某典型岩溶区为例,解析示踪试验在岩溶管道连通性以及获取水文地质参数中的应用。选择落水洞为投放点,分别从落水洞西侧和东侧寻找地下水出露点作为接收点,判别落水洞地下径流的实际去向以及落水洞与接收点之间的水力联系。结合Qtracer2软件对示踪试验成果进行定量解析,确定示踪剂回收率、地下水平均流速、最快流速,估算出岩溶管道结构特征和水文地质参数。结果表明:落水洞与接收点JS01、JS03之间不存在直接水力联系;落水洞与接收点JS02存在水力联系且岩溶管道极为发育,含水介质不均匀,地下水运移路径较为通畅,为典型的紊流流态;落水洞地下径流的主要方向是由西向东,但在丰水期雨量较大期间,接收点JS04能够接收到荧光素钠,说明丰水期水位上涨后两者间会有水力联系,导致部分水量向落水洞西侧排泄。  相似文献   

基于组合权重与灰色关联度分析法的地铁深基坑开挖稳定性评价     

郎秋玲  王伟  高成梁 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(6):1823-1832

伴随着城市的快速发展,地铁深基坑工程越来越多。在开挖过程中如何对其稳定性进行评价,是当前需要重点关注的问题。以成都地铁十七号线凤溪站深基坑支护开挖工程为依托,利用层次分析确定的主观权重与利用熵值法确定的客观权重计算获得组合权重,并与灰色关联度分析法相结合,通过现场数据采集并进行综合评判,客观评价地铁深基坑开挖的稳定性。结果表明,各监测项目对基坑稳定性的重要程度从大到小依次为桩顶水平位移（0.29）、地表沉降（0.24）、建筑物沉降（0.19）、桩顶沉降（0.18）、内支撑轴力（0.10）,基坑稳定性综合评判结果等级为"非常好"。所建立的评价模型可为类似地铁深基坑开挖稳定性评价提供新的方法。  相似文献   

Pure elastic stiffness of sand represented by response envelopes derived from cyclic triaxial tests with local strain measurements     

Knittel  Lukas  Wichtmann  Torsten  Niemunis  Andrzej  Huber  Gerhard  Espino  Edgar  Triantafyllidis  Theodoros 《Acta Geotechnica》2020,15(8):2075-2088

Acta Geotechnica - The elastic stiffness of a fine sand at small to moderate strains ( $$\varepsilon \le 2 \times 10^{-4}$$ ) has been studied based on cyclic triaxial tests on cube-shaped samples...  相似文献