Carbon dioxide sequestration: how much and when?     

Klaus Keller  David McInerney  David F. Bradford 《Climatic change》2008,88(3-4):267-291

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration has been proposed as a key component in technological portfolios for managing anthropogenic climate change, since it may provide a faster and cheaper route to significant reductions in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations than abating CO₂ production. However, CO₂ sequestration is not a perfect substitute for CO₂ abatement because CO₂ may leak back into the atmosphere (thus imposing future climate change impacts) and because CO₂ sequestration requires energy (thus producing more CO₂ and depleting fossil fuel resources earlier). Here we use analytical and numerical models to assess the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration and analyze the optimal timing and extent of CO₂ sequestration. The economic efficiency factor of CO₂ sequestration can be expressed as the ratio of the marginal net benefits of sequestering CO₂ and avoiding CO₂ emissions. We derive an analytical solution for this efficiency factor for a simplified case in which we account for CO₂ leakage, discounting, the additional fossil fuel requirement of CO₂ sequestration, and the growth rate of carbon taxes. In this analytical model, the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration decreases as the CO₂ tax growth rate, leakage rates and energy requirements for CO₂ sequestration increase. Increasing discount rates increases the economic efficiency factor. In this simple model, short-term sequestration methods, such as afforestation, can even have negative economic efficiencies. We use a more realistic integrated-assessment model to additionally account for potentially important effects such as learning-by-doing and socio-economic inertia on optimal strategies. We measure the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration by the ratio of the marginal costs of CO₂ sequestration and CO₂ abatement along optimal trajectories. We show that the positive impacts of investments in CO₂ sequestration through the reduction of future marginal CO₂ sequestration costs and the alleviation of future inertia constraints can initially exceed the marginal sequestration costs. As a result, the economic efficiencies of CO₂ sequestration can exceed 100% and an optimal strategy will subsidize CO₂ sequestration that is initially more expensive than CO₂ abatement. The potential economic value of a feasible and acceptable CO₂ sequestration technology is equivalent – in the adopted utilitarian model – to a one-time investment of several percent of present gross world product. It is optimal in the chosen economic framework to sequester substantial CO₂ quantities into reservoirs with small or zero leakage, given published estimates of marginal costs and climate change impacts. The optimal CO₂ trajectories in the case of sequestration from air can approach the pre-industrial level, constituting geoengineering. Our analysis is silent on important questions (e.g., the effects of model and parametric uncertainty, the potential learning about these uncertainties, or ethical dimension of such geoengineering strategies), which need to be addressed before our findings can be translated into policy-relevant recommendations.  相似文献   

Abrupt climate change near the poles     

Klaus Keller  Richard S. J. Tol  Ferenc L. Toth  Gary W. Yohe 《Climatic change》2008,90(1-2):1-4

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Super earth explorer: a coronagraphic off-axis space telescope     

J. Schneider  A. Boccaletti  D. Mawet  P. Baudoz  J.-L. Beuzit  R. Doyon  M. Marley  D. Stam  G. Tinetti  W. Traub  J. Trauger  A. Aylward  J. Y-K. Cho  C.-U. Keller  S. Udry 《Experimental Astronomy》2009,23(1):357-377

The Super-Earth Explorer is an Off-Axis Space Telescope (SEE-COAST) designed for high contrast imaging. Its scientific objective is to make the physico-chemical characterization of exoplanets possibly down to 2 Earth radii. For that purpose it will analyze the spectral and polarimetric properties of the parent starlight reflected by the planets, in the wavelength range 400–1,250 nm.  相似文献   

Organic matter from comet 81P/Wild 2, IDPs,and carbonaceous meteorites; similarities and differences     

S. Wirick  G. J. Flynn  L. P. Keller  K. Nakamura‐Messenger  C. Peltzer  C. Jacobsen  S. Sandford  M. Zolensky 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(10):1611-1626

Abstract— During preliminary examination of 81P/Wild 2 particles collected by the NASA Stardust spacecraft, we analyzed seven, sulfur embedded and ultramicrotomed particles extracted from five different tracks. Sections were analyzed using a scanning transmission X‐ray microscope (SXTM) and carbon X‐ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra were collected. We compared the carbon XANES spectra of these Wild 2 samples with a database of spectra on thirty‐four interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) and with several meteorites. Two of the particles analyzed are iron sulfides and there is evidence that an aliphatic compound associated with these particles can survive high temperatures. An iron sulfide from an IDP demonstrates the same phenomenon. Another, mostly carbon free containing particle radiation damaged, something we have not observed in any IDPs we have analyzed or any indigenous organic matter from the carbonaceous meteorites, Tagish Lake, Orgueil, Bells and Murchison. The carbonaceous material associated with this particle showed no mass loss during the initial analysis but chemically changed over a period of two months. The carbon XANES spectra of the other four particles varied more than spectra from IDPs and indigenous organic matter from meteorites. Comparison of the carbon XANES spectra from these particles with 1. the carbon XANES spectra from thirty‐four IDPs (<15 micron in size) and 2. the carbon XANES spectra from carbonaceous material from the Tagish Lake, Orgueil, Bells, and Murchison meteorites show that 81P/Wild 2 carbon XANES spectra are more similar to IDP carbon XANES spectra then to the carbon XANES spectra of meteorites.  相似文献   

Magnetic Properties and Rotational Hysteresis of A Basalt With Homogeneous Ti-Rich Titanomagnetite Grains 10–20 μm In Diameter     

E. Schmidbauer  R. Keller 《Geophysical Journal International》1994,119(3):880-892

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The reflectance spectrum of Titan's surface at the Huygens landing site determined by the descent imager/spectral radiometer     

S.E. Schröder  H.U. Keller 《Planetary and Space Science》2008,56(5):753-769

The descent imager/spectral radiometer aboard the Huygens probe successfully acquired images and spectra of the surface of Titan. To counter the effects of haze and atmospheric methane absorption it carried a surface science lamp to illuminate the surface just before landing. We reconstruct the reflectance spectrum of the landing site in the 500-1500 nm range from downward looking visual and infrared spectrometers data that show evidence of lamp light. Our reconstruction is a followup to the analysis by Tomasko et al. [2005. Rain, winds and haze during the Huygens probe's descent to Titan's surface. Nature 438, 765-778], who scaled their result to the ratio of the up- and down flux measured just before landing. Instead, we use the lamp flux from the calibration experiment, and find a significantly higher overall reflectance. We attribute this to a phase angle dependance, possibly representing the opposition surge commonly encountered on solar system bodies. The reconstruction in the visible wavelength range is greatly improved. Here, the reflectance spectrum features a red slope, consistent with the presence of organic material. We confirm the blue slope in the near-IR, featureless apart from a single shallow absorption feature at 1500 nm. We agree with Tomasko et al. that the evidence for water ice is inconclusive. By modeling of absorption bands we find a methane mixing ratio of 4.5±0.5% just above the surface. There is no evidence for the presence of liquid methane, but the data do not rule out a wet soil at a depth of several centimeters.  相似文献   

Temperature lapse rate and methane in Titan's troposphere     

McKay CP  Chau Martin S  Griffith CA  Keller RM 《Icarus》1997,129(2):498-505

We have reanalyzed the Voyager radio occultation data for Titan, examining two alternative approaches to methane condensation. In one approach, methane condensation is facilitated by the presence of nitrogen because nitrogen lowers the condensation level of a methane/nitrogen mixture. The resulting enhancement in methane condensation lowers the upper limit on surface relative humidity of methane obtained from the Voyager occultation data from 0.7 to 0.6. We conclude that in this case the surface relative humidity of methane lies between 0.08 and 0.6, with values close to 0.6 indicated. In the other approach, methane is allowed to become supersaturated and reaches 1.4 times saturation in the troposphere. In this case, surface humidities up to 100% are allowed by the Voyager occultation data, and thus the upper limit must be set by other considerations. We conclude that if supersaturation is included, then the surface relative humidity of methane can be any value greater than 0.08--unless a deep ocean is present, in which case the surface relative humidity is limited to less than 0.85. Again, values close to 0.6 are indicated. Overall, the tropospheric lapse rate on Titan appears to be determined by radiative equilibrium. The lapse rate is everywhere stable against dry convection, but is unstable to moist convection. This finding is consistent with a supersaturated atmosphere in which condensation-and hence moist convection-is inhibited.  相似文献   

High stress late Maastrichtian – early Danian palaeoenvironment in the Neuquén Basin, Argentina     

G. Keller  T. Adatte  A.A. Tantawy  Z. Berner  W. Stinnesbeck  D. Stueben  H.A. Leanza 《Cretaceous Research》2007,28(6):939-960

During the late Maastrichtian to early Danian the Neuquén Basin of Argentina was adjacent to an active volcanic arc to the west and an extensive land area to the northeast. Mineralogical and geochemical studies of the Bajada del Jagüel in the Neuquén Basin indicate a generally warm climate with seasonal changes in humidity and an open seaway to the South Atlantic that maintained marine conditions. Biostratigraphic and quantitative foraminiferal and nannofossil analyses indicate that sediment deposition during the late Maastrichtian (zones CF4-CF2, N. frequens) occurred in relatively shallow middle neritic (100 m) depths with largely dysaerobic bottom waters (abundant low O₂ tolerant benthics) and fluctuating sea level. Calcareous nannofossils indicate a high stress marine environment dominated by Micula decussata. Planktic foraminifera mimic the post-K/T high stress environment with alternating blooms of the disaster opportunists Guembelitria and low oxygen tolerant Heterohelix groups, indicating nutrient-rich surface waters and an oxygen depleted water column. The high stress conditions were probably driven by high nutrient influx due to upwelling and terrestrial and volcanic influx. The K/T boundary is marked by an erosional surface that marks a hiatus at the base of a 15-25 cm thick volcaniclastic sandstone, which contains diverse planktic foraminiferal zone P1c assemblages and nannofossils of zone NP1b immediately above it. This indicates deposition of the sandstone occurred 500 ky after the K/T hiatus. No evidence of the Chicxulub impact or related tsunami deposition was detected.  相似文献   

Abundance and distribution of ichthyoplankton in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, 1989–1990     

Aimee A. Keller  Grace Klein-MacPhee  Jeanne St. Onge Burns 《Estuaries and Coasts》1999,22(1):149-163

An ichthyoplankton survey (18 stations in seven sampling sectors) was conducted in Narragansett Bay in 1990 to provide information on abundance, distribution, and seasonal occurrence of eggs and larvae of estuarine fishes, including seasonal migrants. An additional goal was to examine changes in species composition, abundance, and distribution occurring since the last baywide survey in 1972–73. The taxonomic composition of eggs and larvae in 1990 (41 species in 25 families from 684 plankton samples) and in 1972–73 (43 species in 28 families from 6900 samples) was similar. Maximum abundance of fish eggs occurred in June and larvae in July, minimum abundance in September to February. Species diversity was greatest in May–July and lowest during January in both surveys. However, egg and larval densities in 1990 were considerably lower than in 1972–73. Bay anchovy, tautog, and cunner accounted for 86% of the eggs and 87% of the larvae in the bay in 1990. These three species accounted for only 55% of the eggs and 51% of the larvae in 1972–73, with menhaden accounting for another 18% of the eggs and 34% of the larvae. Searobins, scup, and butterfish eggs were common in 1973 (19%) but rare in 1990 (2%). Ichthyoplankton abundance for several of the most abundant species was significantly lower (p<0.05) in the Providence River, upper bay, and Greenwich Bay in 1990 than in 1972–73. Density of fish eggs and larvae in the lower portions of the bay was lower in 1990 for some species but not others. Distribution data suggested a general down-bay shift in density in 1990. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY085 00015  相似文献   

A New Rapid Method for Measuring the Vertical Head Profile          下载免费PDF全文

Carl Keller 《Ground water》2017,55(2):244-254

This study describes a new technique for measuring the head profile in a geologic formation. The technique provides rapid, low cost information on the depth of water‐producing zones and aquitards in heterogeneous aquifers, yielding estimates of hydraulic heads in each zone while identifying any potential for cross contamination between zones. The measurements can be performed in a typical borehole in just a few hours. The procedure uses both the continuous transmissivity profile obtained by the installation (eversion) of a flexible borehole liner into an open borehole and the subsequent removal (inversion) of the same liner from the borehole. The method is possible because of the continuous transmissivity profile (T profile described by Keller et al. 2014) obtained by measuring the rate of liner eversion under a constant driving head. The hydraulic heads of producing zones are measured using the reverse head profile (RHP) method (patent no. 9,008,971) based on a stepwise inversion of the borehole liner. As each interval of the borehole is uncovered by inversion of the liner, the head beneath the liner is allowed to equilibrate to a steady‐state value. The individual hydraulic heads contributing to each measurement are calculated using the measured transmissivity for each zone. Application of the RHP method to a sedimentary bedrock borehole in New Jersey verified that it reproduced the head distribution obtained the same day in the same borehole instrumented with a multilevel sampling system.  相似文献