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11.
The influence of systematically incomplete shallow landslide inventories on statistical susceptibility models and suggestions for improvements 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Complete landslide inventories are rarely available. The objectives of this study were to (i) elaborate the influence of incomplete landslide inventories on statistical landslide susceptibility models and to (ii) propose suitable modelling strategies that can reduce the effects of inventory-based incompleteness. In this context, we examined whether the application of a novel statistical approach, namely mixed-effects models, enables predictions that are less influenced by such inventory-based errors.The study was conducted for (i) an area located in eastern Austria and (ii) a synthetically generated data set. The applied methodology consisted of a simulation of two different inventory-based biases and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Inventory-based errors were simulated by gradually removing landslide data within forests and selected municipalities. The resulting differently biased inventories were introduced into logistic regression models while we considered the effects of including or excluding predictors that are directly related to the respective inventory-based bias. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to account for variation that was due to an inventory-based incompleteness.The results show that most erroneous predictions, but highest predictive performances, were obtained from models generated with highly incomplete inventories and predictors that were able to directly describe the respective incompleteness. An exclusion of such bias-describing predictors led to systematically confounded relationships. The application of mixed-effects models proved valuable to produce predictions that were least affected by inventory-based errors.This paper highlights that the degree of inventory-based incompleteness is only one of several aspects that determine how an inventory-based bias may propagate into the final results. We propose a four-step procedure to deal with incomplete inventories in the context of statistical landslide susceptibility modelling. 相似文献
12.
Towards Establishing Climatic Thresholds for Slope Instability: Use of a Physically-based Combined Soil Hydrology-slope Stability Model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
S. M.?BrooksEmail author M. J.?Crozier T. W.?Glade M. G.?Anderson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(4):881-905
— Shallow landslides are often linked to high magnitude rainstorms. Research has attempted to establish threshold rainfall totals that trigger shallow landslides, based mainly on field evidence. Complications arise because not all regolith has the same hydrological behaviour, and research frequently fails to take this into account. This paper uses a combination of field and modelling approaches to explore the triggering rainfall thresholds for shallow failures in deforested hill country of New Zealand. It emphasises the role of variations in regolith hydrology, focussing on unsaturated and saturated zone responses. By using a modelling approach, detailed variations in pore pressure (positive and negative) responses are investigated, developing ideas initially derived from field evidence. This paper defines and develops earlier research that establishes values for maximum and minimum probability thresholds for shallow landslides, and provides a more generalised model that can be applied more widely. Hydrological mechanisms for shallow landslides are investigated in greater detail than previously possible using a Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM).Received: 20 August 2001 相似文献
13.
Elmar M. Schmaltz L.P.H. Van Beek Thom A. Bogaard Sabine Kraushaar Stefan Steger Thomas Glade 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(6):1259-1273
Despite the importance of land cover on landscape hydrology and slope stability, the representation of land cover dynamics in physically based models and their associated ecohydrological effects on slope stability is rather scarce. In this study, we assess the impact of different levels of complexity in land cover parameterisation on the explanatory power of a dynamic and process-based spatial slope stability model. Firstly, we present available and collected data sets and account for the stepwise parameterisation of the model. Secondly, we present approaches to simulate land cover: 1) a grassland landscape without forest coverage; 2) spatially static forest conditions, in which we assume limited knowledge about forest composition; 3) more detailed information of forested areas based on the computation of leaf area development and the implementation of vegetation-related processes; 4) similar to the third approach but with the additional consideration of the spatial expansion and vertical growth of vegetation. Lastly, the model is calibrated based on meteorological data sets and groundwater measurements. The model results are quantitatively validated for two landslide-triggering events that occurred in Western Austria. Predictive performances are estimated using the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC). Our findings indicate that the performance of the slope stability model was strongly determined by model complexity and land cover parameterisation. The implementation of leaf area development and land cover dynamics further yield an acceptable predictive performance (AUC ~0.71-0.75) and a better conservativeness of the predicted unstable areas (FoC ~0.71). The consideration of dynamic land cover expansion provided better performances than the solely consideration of leaf area development. The results of this study highlight that an increase of effort in the land cover parameterisation of a dynamic slope stability model can increase the explanatory power of the model. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
14.
15.
Early warning systems for natural hazards and risks 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
16.
Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review 总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3
Melanie S. Kappes Margreth Keiler Kirsten von Elverfeldt Thomas Glade 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1925-1958
Many areas of the world are prone to several natural hazards, and effective risk reduction is only possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. However, in contrast to single-hazard analyses, the examination of multiple hazards poses a range of additional challenges due to the differing characteristics of processes. This refers to the assessment of the hazard level, as well as to the vulnerability toward distinct processes, and to the arising risk level. As comparability of the single-hazard results is strongly needed, an equivalent approach has to be chosen that allows to estimate the overall hazard and consequent risk level as well as to rank threats. In addition, the visualization of a range of natural hazards or risks is a challenging task since the high quantity of information has to be depicted in a way that allows for easy and clear interpretation. The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties. 相似文献
17.
Stefan Haselberger Lisa-Maria Ohler Robert R. Junker Jan-Christoph Otto Thomas Glade Sabine Kraushaar 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(10):1941-1952
Proglacial slopes provide suitable conditions for observing the co-development of abiotic and biotic systems. The frequency and magnitude of geomorphic processes and plant composition govern this interplay, which is described in the model of biogeomorphic succession. In high mountain environments, this model has only been tested in a limited number of studies. The study aimed to quantify small-scale sediment transport via erosion plots along a plant cover gradient and to investigate the influence of sediment transport on plant communities. We aimed to generate quantitative data to test existing biogeomorphic models. Small-scale biogeomorphic interactions were investigated on 30 test plots of 2 × 3 m size on proglacial slopes of the Gepatschferner (Kaunertal) in the Austrian Alps during the snow-free summer months over three consecutive years. The experimental plots were established on slopes along a plant cover gradient. A detailed vegetation survey was carried out to capture biotic conditions, and specific sediment yield was measured at each plot. Species abundance and composition at each site reflected successional stages. Additional environmental parameters, such as terrain age, geomorphometry, grain size distribution, soil nutrients, and precipitation, were also included in the analyses. We observed two pronounced declines in geomorphic activity on plots with both above 30% and above 75% plant cover. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling showed distinct clusters of vegetation composition that mainly followed a successional gradient. Sites that were affected by high-magnitude geomorphic events showed different environmental conditions and species communities. Quantified process rates and observed species composition support the concept of biogeomorphic succession. The findings help to narrow down a biogeomorphic feedback window. 相似文献
18.
Establishing the frequency and magnitude of landslide-triggering rainstorm events in New Zealand 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
Thomas Glade 《Environmental Geology》1998,35(2-3):160-174
Landslide erosion has an established history in New Zealand. Some broad estimates of economic costs for short-term event
damage, long-term landslide damage, and proactive measures are provided and compared on a national and international level.
Frequency and magnitude analysis based on historical records of landslide-triggering rainstorms demonstrates that 1) landslides
are a nationwide problem, 2) recognition and recording of these events is dependent on public awareness and therefore related
to population distribution and extent of urbanized areas, and 3) deforestation increases the frequency of landslide events,
but not necessarily the total magnitude of their impact. However, some regions such as Northland and Wellington in the North
Island and Greymouth and North Otago in the South Island are more frequently and more strongly affected than others. Landslide
occurrence in time and space, within representative study areas in Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa, and Wellington, is correlated with
the climatic variable daily precipitation. Different regional hydrological thresholds for landslide triggering are established.
Received: 15 Ocotober 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
19.
Effectiveness of visually analyzing LiDAR DTM derivatives for earth and debris slide inventory mapping for statistical susceptibility modeling 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Landslide inventories are the most important data source for landslide process, susceptibility, hazard, and risk analyses. The objective of this study was to identify an effective method for mapping a landslide inventory for a large study area (19,186 km2) from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital terrain model (DTM) derivatives. This inventory should in particular be optimized for statistical susceptibility modeling of earth and debris slides. We compared the mapping of a representative set of landslide bodies with polygons (earth and debris slides, earth flows, complex landslides, and areas with slides) and a substantially complete set of earth and debris slide main scarps with points by visual interpretation of LiDAR DTM derivatives. The effectiveness of the two mapping methods was estimated by evaluating the requirements on an inventory used for statistical susceptibility modeling and their fulfillment by our mapped inventories. The resulting landslide inventories improved the knowledge on landslide events in the study area and outlined the heterogeneity of the study area with respect to landslide susceptibility. The obtained effectiveness estimate demonstrated that none of our mapped inventories are perfect for statistical landslide susceptibility modeling. However, opposed to mapping polygons, mapping earth and debris slides with a point in the main scarp were most effective for statistical susceptibility modeling within large study areas. Therefore, earth and debris slides were mapped with points in the main scarp in entire Lower Austria. The advantages, drawbacks, and effectiveness of landslide mapping on the basis of LiDAR DTM derivatives compared to other imagery and techniques were discussed. 相似文献
20.
Applying Probability Determination to Refine Landslide-triggering Rainfall Thresholds Using an Empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model” 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
—Rainfall-triggered landslides constitute a serious hazard and an important geomorphic process in many parts of the world. Attempts have been made at various scales in a number of countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to identify patterns in behaviour and, ultimately, to define or calculate landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. This study was carried out in three landslide-prone regions in the North Island of New Zealand. Regional landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds were calculated using an empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model.” In this model, first introduced by, triggering rainfall conditions are represented by a combination of rainfall occurring in a period before the event (antecedent rainfall) and rainfall on the day of the event. A physically-based decay coefficient is derived for each region from the recessional behaviour of storm hydrographs and is used to produce an index for antecedent rainfall. Statistical techniques are employed to obtain the thresholds which best separate the rainfall conditions associated with landslide occurrence from those of non-occurrence or a given probability of occurrence.The resultant regional models are able to represent the probability of occurrence of landsliding events on the basis of rainfall conditions. The calculated thresholds show regional differences in susceptibility of a given landscape to landslide-triggering rainfall. These differences relate to both the landslide database and the difference of existing physical conditions between the regions. 相似文献