Improved hydrograph prediction through subsurface characterization: conditional stochastic hillslope simulations     

Steven B. Meyerhoff  Reed M. Maxwell  Wendy D. Graham  John L. Williams III 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(6):1329-1343

Subsurface heterogeneity is one of the largest sources of uncertainty associated with saturated hydraulic conductivity. Recent work has demonstrated that uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity can impart significant uncertainty in runoff generation processes and surface-water flow. Here, the role of site characterization in reducing hydrograph prediction bias and uncertainty is demonstrated. A fully integrated hydrologic model is used to conduct two sets of stochastic, transient simulation experiments comprising different overland flow mechanisms: Dunne and Hortonian. Conditioning hydraulic conductivity fields using values drawn from a simulated synthetic control case are shown to reduce both mean bias and variance in an ensemble of conditional hydrograph predictions when compared with the control case. The ensemble simulations show a greater reduction in uncertainty in the hydrographs for Hortonian flow. The conditional simulations predict surface ponding and surface pressure distributions with reduced mean error and reduced root mean square error compared with unconditional simulations. Uncertainty reduction in Hortonian and Dunne flow cases demonstrates different temporal signals, with more substantial reduction achieved for Hortonian flow.  相似文献   

A case study considering the comparability of mass and volumetric suspended sediment data     

Jason A. Hubbart  Elliott Kellner  Graham Freeman 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(9):4051-4060

Contemporary real-time instruments that advance suspended sediment monitoring capabilities often provide results in units (e.g. volumetric) that are not easily comparable to traditional mass (e.g. gravimetric) methods. A Midwest case study was initiated to assess the accuracy of three methods commonly used to convert volumetric data to mass. Water samples from rural, suburban, and urban stream reaches were analyzed for suspended sediment concentration using laser diffraction and wet sieving methods, resulting in paired volumetric (μl/l) and mass (mg/l) suspended sediment concentrations. Observed volumetric data were converted to mass using an assumed particle density (Pd) of 2.65 g/cm³, a calculated Pd, and linear regression. Using the assumed Pd, estimated mass data differed from observed mass data by as much as 60 %. Dividing mass concentration (mg/l) by the volumetric concentration (μl/l) resulted in site-specific average suspended sediment particle densities ranging from 2.17, 1.99, 1.76 g/cm³ for different land use types. Using a calculated Pd, estimated mass data differed from observed mass data by as much as 45 %. Paired sample t tests showed observed and estimated mass values to be significantly different (p < 0.01). R ² values for regression equations ranged from 0.82 to 0.88. Conversion difficulties likely result from temporal and spatial variations of Pd. The results illustrate the imprecision of conversion methods and highlight possible estimation errors assuming idealized conditions. Continued work is necessary to improve quantitative relationship(s) between mass and volumetric suspended sediment data and the utility of both types of information for science and land management practices.  相似文献   

Stratigraphic landscape analysis: Charting the Holocene movements of the Nile at Karnak through ancient Egyptian time     

J. M. Bunbury  A. Graham  M. A. Hunter 《Geoarchaeology》2008,23(3):351-373

Geological analysis of 5–10‐m‐long sediment cores in the context of the anthropologically derived materials within them has allowed us to identify ancient landscape features in the Theban area around Luxor, Egypt. From these observations we propose a sequence of island formation and northwestward movement of the Nile from the Middle Kingdom onward in the area of the temple complexes of Karnak. The geoarchaeological techniques used appear to document the Holocene lateral migration and vertical aggradation of the Nile. Our method can be used to test postulated movements and is applicable to sites in river or coastal plains where sediments were being deposited during the occupation of the site. The sediments were sieved to retrieve sherds and numerous other small items (2 mm and larger), which included worked stone fragments, rootlet concretions (rhizocretions), desert polished sand grains, and occasionally beads. The small stone fragments can be correlated with buildings and sherds of known age within the site, while the rhizocretions and desert sand grains indicate environmental conditions prevailing at the time of deposition. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

Effective Sample Size for Glacier Mass Balance     

J. Graham Cogley 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1999,81(4):497-507

Correlograms from multiple time series of point mass balance, measured on White Glacier (Axel Heiberg Island, Canada) and Abramov Glacier (Alai Range, Kirgizia), show that the correlation decreases with the difference in elevation between the points. The correlogram is used to calculate an integral spatial scale or effective sample area which, when divided into the area of the glacier, yields an estimate of the number of degrees of freedom in a stake-based estimate of the whole-glacier balance. This number – the 'effective sample size'– is a small fraction of the number of point measurements; indeed, it is independent of the number of measurements. Estimates of average balance for elevation bands are at one remove from raw stake measurements, but they are amenable to a principal component analysis which confirms that the effective sample size is very small. The small effective sample size means that uncertainty in a typical measurement of whole-glacier mass balance cannot be much less than the large value implied by the conservative assumption that stakes are perfectly correlated. One way around this difficulty would be to increase the role of prior physical understanding by seeking to model the spatial variability of mass balance. A successful model would need only a few parameters, and would allow for the joint estimation of both magnitude and uncertainty; the uncertainty in mass balance could be derived objectively from the uncertainty in the parameters. This, however, would require good estimates of the variability of mass balance at the elevation-band scale, which might in turn require that many measurement networks be redesigned.  相似文献   

Breaking Out: The Opportunities and Challenges of Multi-Method Research inPopulation Geography     

Elspeth Graham 《The Professional geographer》1999,51(1):76-89

Research traditions exert a powerful influence over the thinking of academic researchers. In population geography an entrenched empiricism and a reluctance to engage in wider debates on theory and method within human geography have resulted in a degree of separate development. Such methodological complacency has, until recently, threatened to undermine population geography's role within the discipline as a whole. Thus the discussion of multi-method research designs is of particular significance because it offers population geographers an opportunity to break out from the confines of a dominant research tradition and participate with other human geographers in an important methodological debate. This paper seeks not only to provide a critical overview of the current debate within population geography (as represented in the preceding papers in this Focus section) but also to extend that debate by raising issues of much more general concern. I argue that there are dangers in drawing the terms of the debate too narrowly. If we are to understand the nature and potential of multi-method research, we must first pose fundamental questions about the interrelationships among methods, data, and research problems. Pragmatic views on the choice of research method are inadequate because they fail to recognise the theory-driven nature of research. Only once we have achieved a better understanding of the philosophical grounding of research strategies will the opportunities afforded by multi-method research be fully realised.  相似文献   

Landslides control the spatial and temporal variation of channel width in southern Taiwan: Implications for landscape evolution and cascading hazards in steep,tectonically active landscapes          下载免费PDF全文

Brian J. Yanites  Nate A. Mitchell  Joshua C. Bregy  Grace A. Carlson  Kirstyn Cataldo  Margaret Holahan  Graham H. Johnston  Amelia Nelson  Jeffery Valenza  Matthew Wanker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(9):1782-1797

Intense precipitation or seismic events can generate clustered mass movement processes across a landscape. These rare events have significant impacts on the landscape, however, the rarity of such events leads to uncertainty in how they impact the entire geomorphic system over a range of timescales. Taiwan is steep, tectonically active, and prone to landslide and debris flows, especially when exposed to heavy rainfall events. Typhoon Morakot made landfall in Taiwan in August of 2009, causing widespread landslides in southern Taiwan. The south to north trend in valley relief in southern Taiwan leads to spatial variability in landslide susceptibility providing an opportunity to infer the long‐term impact of such landslide events on channel morphology. We use pre‐ and post‐typhoon imagery to quantify the propagating impact of this event on channel width as the debris is routed through the landscape. The results show the importance of cascading hazards from landslides on landscape evolution based on patterns of channel width (both pre‐ and post‐typhoon) and hillslope gradients in 20 basins along strike in southern Taiwan. Prior to Typhoon Morakot, the river channels in the central part of the study area were about 3–10 times wider than the channels in the south. Following the typhoon, aggradation and widening was also a maximum in these central to northern basins where hillslope gradients and channel steepness is high, accentuating the pre‐typhoon pattern. The results further show that the narrowest channels are located where channel steepness is the lowest, an observation inconsistent with a detachment‐limited model for river evolution. We infer this pattern is indicative of a strong role of sediment supply, and associated landslide events, on long‐term channel evolution. These findings have implications across a range of spatial and temporal scales including understanding the cascade of hazards in steep landscapes and geomorphic interpretation of channel morphology. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Variable hillslope-channel coupling and channel characteristics of forested mountain streams in glaciated landscapes     

Marwan A. Hassan  Stephen Bird  David Reid  Carles Ferrer-Boix  Dan Hogan  Francesco Brardinoni  Shawn Chartrand 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(3):736-751

Channel morphology of forested, mountain streams in glaciated landscapes is regulated by a complex suite of processes, and remains difficult to predict. Here, we analyze models of channel geometry against a comprehensive field dataset collected in two previously glaciated basins in Haida Gwaii, B.C., to explore the influence of variable hillslope–channel coupling imposed by the glacial legacy on channel form. Our objective is to better understand the relation between hillslope–channel coupling and stream character within glaciated basins. We find that the glacial legacy on landscape structure is characterized by relatively large spatial variation in hillslope–channel coupling. Spatial differences in coupling influence the frequency and magnitude of coarse sediment and woody material delivery to the channel network. Analyses using a model for channel gradient and multiple models for width and depth show that hillslope–channel coupling and high wood loading induce deviations from standard downstream predictions for all three variables in the study basins. Examination of model residuals using Boosted Regression Trees and nine additional channel variables indicates that ~10 to ~40% of residual variance can be explained by logjam variables, ~15–40% by the degree of hillslope–channel coupling, and 10–20% by proximity to slope failures. These results indicate that channel classification systems incorporating hillslope–channel coupling, and, indirectly, the catchment glacial legacy, may present a more complete understanding of mountain channels. From these results, we propose a conceptual framework which describes the linkages between landscape history, hillslope–channel coupling, and channel form. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The rise of corporate retailing and the impacts on small-scale retailing: the survival strategies of Kirana stores and informal street vendors in Durgapur,India     

Nabati Ray  Graham Clarke  Paul Waley 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2020,41(2):269-283

In many developing world economies in recent years, the state has been seen to encourage neoliberal economic expansion policies. This has involved both large-scale foreign corporations and sometimes large-scale domestic corporations. Many studies have discussed the new landscapes of economic hardship and the impacts on small businesses. The aim of this paper is to argue that the impacts on small traders are in fact more complex and varied than usually appears in the literature. The research was conducted in the industrial city of Durgapur in the Bardhaman district of West Bengal, India. First it is argued that the impact has been greatest on the ‘kirana’ owners, operating small convenience type stores with legalized trading arrangements and fixed premises. On the other hand, the street vendors (often unlicensed and having no fixed premises) seem not to be affected in terms of customer loss and indeed could be seen to be doing well against the backcloth of neoliberal expansion. In fact we argue that the growth in the number of street vendors provides as much of a threat to future livelihoods for traditional kirana owners as the growth of large corporations itself.  相似文献   

Hybrid Neoliberalism: Implications for Sustainable Development     

Claudia Baldwin  Graham Marshall  Helen Ross  Jim Cavaye  Janet Stephenson  Lyn Carter 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(5):566-587

Neoliberalism is frequently blamed for challenges in achieving sustainable development; consequently some also question if sustainability is still a useful concept. Neoliberal influence on natural resource management has evolved over the last 30?years to a hybrid form that seeks to compensate for its negative social and environmental externalities. Through review of literature and critical analysis of three case studies of resource development in Australia and New Zealand, we argue that, in spite of modifications under hybrid approaches, neoliberalism still tests achievement of sustainability goals, due to privileging industry and shifting risk and costs to future generations, through inadequate regulation, neglect of public consultation, lack of transparency, and weak impact assessment. We suggest that while neoliberal approaches bring both benefits and disadvantages, sustainability principles must continue to be kept at the forefront of legislation, regulation and management.  相似文献   

An ordovician fauna from Lough Shee,Partry Mountains,Co. Mayo,Ireland     

D. A. T. Harper  J. R. Graham  A. W. Owen  S. K. Donovan 《Geological Journal》1988,23(4):293-310

An hitherto undocumented early Ordovician fauna from mudrocks at Lough Shee in the Partry Mountains contains species of sponge, machaeridian, bivalve, gastropod, cephalopod, brachiopod, and trilobite, together consistent with a deep-water setting marginal to the North American province. The trilobite and brachiopod data suggest a correlation of the Lough Shee mudrocks with the upper Whiterock Stage (equivalent to a level near the D. ‘bifidus’ – D. murchisoni boundary, within the middle Llanvirn). The sparse, low-diversity assemblage is specialized and demonstrates the development of aspects of the Whiterock fauna in the South Mayo Trough.  相似文献