Neural network prediction of the reliability of heterogeneous cohesive slopes          下载免费PDF全文

Y.H. Chok  M.B. Jaksa  W.S. Kaggwa  D.V. Griffiths  G.A. Fenton 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(11):1556-1569

The reliability of heterogeneous slopes can be evaluated using a wide range of available probabilistic methods. One of these methods is the random finite element method (RFEM), which combines random field theory with the non‐linear elasto‐plastic finite element slope stability analysis method. The RFEM computes the probability of failure of a slope using the Monte Carlo simulation process. The major drawback of this approach is the intensive computational time required, mainly due to the finite element analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation process. Therefore, a simplified model or solution, which can bypass the computationally intensive and time‐consuming numerical analyses, is desirable. The present study investigates the feasibility of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to develop such a simplified model. ANNs are well known for their strong capability in mapping the input and output relationship of complex non‐linear systems. The RFEM is used to generate possible solutions and to establish a large database that is used to develop and verify the ANN model. In this paper, multi‐layer perceptrons, which are trained with the back‐propagation algorithm, are used. The results of various performance measures indicate that the developed ANN model has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the reliability of heterogeneous slopes. The developed ANN model is then transformed into relatively simple formulae for direct application in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Corrigendum to: Incremental CH4 and N2O mitigation benefits consistent with the U.S. Government's SC-CO2 estimates     

Alex L. Marten  Elizabeth A. Kopits  Charles W. Griffiths  Stephen C. Newbold  Ann Wolverton 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):678-679

The light bulb ban introduced by the EU is used as an example to illustrate how to assess the climate impact of a policy that overlaps with a cap-and-trade scheme. The European Commission estimates that by 2020 the reduction in GHG emissions induced by banning incandescent light bulbs will reach 15 million tons annually. The number is a conservative estimate for the reduction in emissions from lighting if the total residential stock of incandescent light bulbs in 2008 is replaced by more efficient lighting sources. However, it ignores that use-phase and some non-use-phase emissions are covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This drastically reduces the amount of GHG emissions saved.

Policy relevance

Several policies such as the EU-wide ban on incandescent light bulbs, energy efficiency mandates and support mechanisms for renewable energy overlap with the EU ETS. While there are typically several justifications for these policies, a chief reason is the reduction of GHG emissions. However, given that the aggregate emissions of the industries covered are fixed by the EU ETS, the climate change mitigation aspect of these policies is not obvious. Using the light bulb ban as an example, this article illustrates how a focus on non-EU ETS emissions changes the assessment of an intervention in terms of GHG reductions.  相似文献   

Bulk Mixing and Decoupling of the Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer Characterized Using a Ubiquitous Natural Tracer   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

A. G. Williams  S. Chambers  A. Griffiths 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,149(3):381-402

Vertical mixing of the nocturnal stable boundary layer (SBL) over a complex land surface is investigated for a range of stabilities, using a decoupling index ( $0 < D_{rb} < 1$ ) based on the 2–50 m bulk gradient of the ubiquitous natural trace gas radon-222. The relationship between $D_{rb}$ and the bulk Richardson number ( $R_{ib}$ ) exhibits three broad regions: (1) a well-mixed region ( $D_{rb} \approx 0.05$ ) in weakly stable conditions ( $R_{ib} < 0.03$ ); (2) a steeply increasing region ( $0.05 < D_{rb} < 0.9$ ) for “transitional” stabilities ( $0.03 < R_{ib} < 1$ ); and (3) a decoupled region ( $D_{rb} \approx 0.9$ –1.0) in very stable conditions ( $R_{ib} > 1$ ). $D_{rb}$ exhibits a large variability within individual $R_{ib}$ bins, however, due to a range of competing processes influencing bulk mixing under different conditions. To explore these processes in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space, we perform a bivariate analysis of the bulk thermodynamic gradients, various indicators of external influences, and key turbulence quantities at 10 and 50 m. Strong and consistent patterns are found, and five distinct regions in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space are identified and associated with archetypal stable boundary-layer regimes. Results demonstrate that the introduction of a scalar decoupling index yields valuable information about turbulent mixing in the SBL that cannot be gained directly from a single bulk thermodynamic stability parameter. A significant part of the high variability observed in turbulence statistics during very stable conditions is attributable to changes in the degree of decoupling of the SBL from the residual layer above. When examined in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space, it is seen that very different turbulence regimes can occur for the same value of $R_{ib}$ , depending on the particular combination of values for the bulk temperature gradient and wind shear, together with external factors. Extremely low turbulent variances and fluxes are found at 50 m height when $R_{ib} > 1$ and $D_{rb} \approx 1$ (fully decoupled). These “quiescent” cases tend to occur when geostrophic forcing is very weak and subsidence is present, but are not associated with the largest bulk temperature gradients. Humidity and net radiation data indicate the presence of low cloud, patchy fog or dew, any of which may aid decoupling in these cases by preventing temperature gradients from increasing sufficiently to favour gravity wave activity. The largest temperature gradients in our dataset are actually associated with smaller values of the decoupling index ( $D_{rb} < 0.7$ ), indicating the presence of mixing. Strong evidence is seen from enhanced turbulence levels, fluxes and submeso activity at 50 m, as well as high temperature variances and heat flux intermittencies at 10 m, suggesting this region of the $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ distribution can be identified as a top-down mixing regime. This may indicate an important role for gravity waves and other wave-like phenomena in providing the energy required for sporadic mixing at this complex terrain site.  相似文献   

Challenges of deep-sea biodiversity assessments in the Southern Ocean     

Angelika Brandt  Huw Griffiths  Julian Gutt  Katrin Linse  Stefano Schiaparelli  Tosca Ballerini  Bruno Danis  Olaf Pfannkuche 《极地研究(英文版)》2014,(3):204-212

Despite recent progress in deep-sea biodiversity assessments in the Southern Ocean （SO）, there remain gaps in our knowledge that hamper efficient deep-sea monitoring in times of rapid climate change. These include geographical sampling bias, depth and size-dependent faunal gaps in biology, ecology, distribution, and phylogeography, and the evolution of SO species. The phenomena of species patchiness and rarity are still not well understood, possibly because of our limited understanding of physiological adaptations and thresholds. Even though some shallow water species have been investigated physiologically, community-scale studies on the effects of multiple stressors related to ongoing environmental change, including temperature rise, ocean acidification, and shifts in deposition of phytoplankton, are completely unknown for deep-sea organisms. Thus, the establishment of long-term and coordinated monitoring programs, such as those rapidly growing under the umbrella of the Southern Ocean Observing System （SOOS） or the Deep Ocean Observing Strategy （DOOS）, may represent unique tools for measuring the status and trends of deep-sea and SO ecosystems.  相似文献   

Localization of submicron inclusion re-equilibration at healed fractures in host garnet     

T. A. Griffiths  G. Habler  D. Rhede  R. Wirth  F. Ram  R. Abart 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(6):1-21

Microstructures in Permian inclusion-bearing metapegmatite garnets from the Koralpe (Eastern Alps, Austria) reveal re-equilibration by coarsening of abundant submicron-sized inclusions (1 μm–2 nm diameter) at the site of healed brittle cracks. The microstructures developed during Cretaceous eclogite-facies deformation and the related overprinting of the host–inclusion system. Trails of coarsened inclusions (1–10 μm diameter) crosscut the garnet, defining traces of former fractures with occasional en-echelon overlaps. Trails are flanked by 10- to 100-μm-wide ‘bleaching zones’ characterized by the absence of ≤1-μm-sized inclusions in optical and SE images. FEG-microprobe data show that trails and bleaching zones can form isochemically, although some trails exhibit non-isochemical coarsening. Cross-correlation-based EBSD analysis reveals garnet lattice rotation of up to 0.45°, spatially correlated with bleaching zones. The garnet lattice in the center of trails is misoriented around different axes with respect to the lattice either side of the trail. Elevated dislocation density within bleaching zones is confirmed by TEM observations. Dislocations represent a plastic wake formed by crystal plastic deformation at the crack tip. Fracture enhanced diffusion rates in the lattice adjacent to crack planes by introducing dislocations, priming these areas to behave differently to the bulk of the garnet during Cretaceous metamorphism and facilitating localized coarsening of inclusions. Diffusion within the bleaching zone was enhanced by a minimum factor of 10². The partially closed host–inclusion system records the influence of deformation mechanisms on re-equilibration and contributes to understanding of the interaction between deformation and chemical reaction during metamorphism.  相似文献   

The Beagle 2 stereo camera system     

A.D. Griffiths  A.J. Coates  J.-L. Josset  G. Paar  B. Hofmann  D. Pullan  P. Rüffer  M.R. Sims  C.T. Pillinger 《Planetary and Space Science》2005,53(14-15):1466-1482

The stereo camera system (SCS) was designed to provide wide-angle multi-spectral stereo imaging of the Beagle 2 landing site. Based on the Space-X micro-cameras, the primary objective was to construct a digital elevation model of the area in reach of the lander's robot arm. The SCS technical specifications and scientific objectives are described; these included panoramic 3-colour imaging to characterise the landing site; multi-spectral imaging to study the mineralogy of rocks and soils beyond the reach of the arm and solar observations to measure water vapour absorption and the atmospheric dust optical density. Also envisaged were stellar observations to determine the lander location and orientation, multi-spectral observations of Phobos & Deimos and observations of the landing site to monitor temporal changes.  相似文献   

Fluvial system response to Late Devensian (Weichselian) aridity,Baston, Lincolnshire,England     

Rebecca M. Briant  G. Russell Coope  Richard C. Preece  David H. Keen  Steve Boreham  Huw I. Griffiths  Mary B. Seddon  Philip L. Gibbard 《第四纪科学杂志》2004,19(5):479-495

Little is known about the impact of Late Devensian (Weichselian) aridity on lowland British landscapes, largely because they lack the widespread coversand deposits of the adjacent continent. The concentration of large interformational ice‐wedge casts in the upper part of many Devensian fluvial sequences suggests that fluvial activity may have decreased considerably during this time. The development of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating enables this period of ice‐wedge cast formation to be constrained for the first time in eastern England, where a marked horizon of ice‐wedge casts is found between two distinctive dateable facies associations. Contrasts between this horizon and adjacent sediments show clear changes in environment and fluvial system behaviour in response to changing water supply, in line with palaeontological evidence. In addition to providing chronological control on the period of ice‐wedge formation, the study shows good agreement of the radiocarbon and OSL dating techniques during the Middle and Late Devensian, with direct comparison of these techniques beyond 15 000 yr for the first time in Britain. It is suggested that aridity during the Late Devensian forced a significant decrease in fluvial activity compared with preceding and following periods, initiating a system with low peak flows and widespread permafrost development. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Land instability and the legal responsibilities of the landowner, developer and consultant earth scientist     

J.S. Griffiths  J.C. Doornkamp 《地学学报》1995,7(5):550-553

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The clay mineralogy of particulate material from some surface seawaters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean     

A.K Behairy  R Chester  A.J Griffiths  L.R Johnson  J.H Stoner 《Marine Geology》1975,18(1):M45-M56

The concentrations of the clay minerals montmorillonite and illite have been determined in 28 samples of particulate material from surface (0–～5 m) waters along the eastern margins of the Atlantic Ocean, and the concentrations of chlorite and kaolinite have been determined in nineteen of the samples.The average concentration of the four clays in the particulate material decreases in the following order: illite (～42%) > kaolinite (～25%) > chlorite (～19%) > montmorillonite (～14%). There are specific trends in the latitudinal distributions of illite and kaolinite in the particulate material; illite decreases and kaolinite increases towards low latitudes. These trends are also found in eolian dusts and deep-sea sediments from the same region, and these clays are considered to have a detrital origin.The concentrations of montmorillonite in the particulate material and deep-sea sediments are similar in the North Atlantic. However, in the South Atlantic the sediments contain about twice as much montmorillonite as does the particulate material. It is suggested that whereas the montmorillonite in North Atlantic deep-sea sediments is largely detrital, that in South Atlantic sediments is both detrital and authigenic.  相似文献   

Mid-Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte on oceanic island Mauritius provides a window into the ecosystem of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus)     

Kenneth F. Rijsdijk  Julian P. Hume  Frans Bunnik  F.B. Vincent Florens  Claudia Baider  Beth Shapiro  Johannes van der Plicht  Anwar Janoo  Owen Griffiths  Lars W. van den Hoek Ostende  Holger Cremer  Tamara Vernimmen  Perry G.B. De Louw  Assenjee Bholah  Salem Saumtally  Nicolas Porch  James Haile  Mike Buckley  Matthew Collins  Edmund Gittenberger 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(1-2):14-24

Although the recent history of human colonisation and impact on Mauritius is well documented, virtually no records of the pre-human native ecosystem exist, making it difficult to assess the magnitude of the changes brought about by human settlement. Here, we describe a 4000-year-old fossil bed at Mare aux Songes (MAS) in south-eastern Mauritius that contains both macrofossils (vertebrate fauna, gastropods, insects and flora) and microfossils (diatoms, pollen, spores and phytoliths). With >250 bone fragments/m² and comprising 50% of all known extinct and extant vertebrate species (n_s = 44) of Mauritius, MAS may constitute the first Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte identified on an oceanic volcanic island. Fossil remains are dominated by extinct giant tortoises Cylindraspis spp. (63%), passerines (～10%), small bats (7.8%) and dodo Raphus cucullatus (7.1%). Twelve radiocarbon ages [four of them duplicates] from bones and other material suggest that accumulation of fossils took place within several centuries. An exceptional combination of abiotic conditions led to preservation of bones, bone collagen, plant tissue and microfossils. Although bone collagen is well preserved, DNA from dodo and other Mauritian vertebrates has proved difficult. Our analysis suggests that from ca 4000 years ago (4 ka), rising sea levels created a freshwater lake at MAS, generating an oasis in an otherwise dry environment which attracted a diverse vertebrate fauna. Subsequent aridification in the south-west Indian Ocean region may have increased carcass accumulation during droughts, contributing to the exceptionally high fossil concentration. The abundance of floral and faunal remains in this Lagerstätte offers a unique opportunity to reconstruct a pre-human ecosystem on an oceanic island, providing a key foundation for assessing the vulnerability of island ecosystems to human impact.  相似文献