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161.
In a probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability, the Monte Carlo simulation technique has been widely used to evaluate
the probability of slope failure. While the Monte Carlo simulation technique has many advantages, the technique requires complete
information of the random variables in stability analysis; however, in practice, it is difficult to obtain complete information
from a field investigation. The information on random variables is usually limited due to the restraints of sampling numbers.
This is why approximation methods have been proposed for reliability analyses. Approximation methods, such as the first-order
second-moment method and the point estimate method, require only the mean and standard deviation of the random variable; therefore,
it is easy to utilize when the information is limited. Usually, a single closed form of the formula for the evaluation of
the factor of safety is needed for an approximation method. However, the commonly used stability analysis method of wedge
failure is complicated and cumbersome and does not provide a simple equation for the evaluation of the factor of safety. Consequently,
the approximation method is not appropriate for wedge failure. In order to overcome this limitation, a simple equation, which
is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation method for wedge failure, is utilized to calculate the probability of failure.
A simple equation for the direct estimation of the safety factors for wedge failure has been empirically derived from failed
and stable cases of slope, using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The developed technique has been applied to a practical
example, and the results from the developed technique were compared to the results from the Monte Carlo simulation technique. 相似文献
162.
Moung-Jin Lee Jae-Won Choi Hyun-Joo Oh Joong-Sun Won Inhye Park Saro Lee 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,67(1):23-37
Ensemble techniques were developed, applied and validated for the analysis of landslide susceptibility in Jinbu area, Korea using the geographic information system (GIS). Landslide-occurrence areas were detected in the study by interpreting aerial photographs and field survey data. Landslide locations were randomly selected in a 70/30 ratio for training and validation of the models, respectively. Topography, geology, soil and forest databases were also constructed. Maps relevant to landslide occurrence were assembled in a spatial database. Using the constructed spatial database, 17 landslide-related factors were extracted. The relationships between the detected landslide locations and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio, weight of evidence, logistic regression and artificial neural network models and their ensemble models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create landslide susceptibility indexes and maps. Then, the four landslide susceptibility maps were used as new input factors and integrated using the frequency ratio, weight of evidence, logistic regression and artificial neural network models as ensemble methods to make better susceptibility maps. All of the susceptibility maps were validated by comparison with known landslide locations that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble-based landslide susceptibility map that used the new landslide-related input factor maps showed better accuracy (87.11% in frequency ratio, 83.14% in weight of evidence, 87.79% in logistic regression and 84.54% in artificial neural network) than the individual landslide susceptibility maps (84.94% in frequency ratio, 82.82% in weight of evidence, 87.72% in logistic regression and 81.44% in artificial neural network). All accuracy assessments showed overall satisfactory agreement of more than 80%. The ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model. 相似文献
163.
Combined analyses of chemometrics and kriging for identifying groundwater contamination sources and origins at the Masan coastal area in Korea 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Tae Hyung Kim Sang Yong Chung Namsik Park Se-Yeong Hamm Seung Yeop Lee Byung-Woo Kim 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,67(5):1373-1388
Hydrogeochemical analyses including the basic statistics of chemical components, Piper??s trilinear diagram, and Mazor??s compositional bivariate diagram revealed that the main source and origin of groundwater contamination was seawater intrusion in the study area. However, the other sources and origins of groundwater contamination could be found by the combined analyses of chemometrics and kriging. Cluster analysis was helpful for the classification on the basis of the contamination characteristics of groundwater quality; however, it was not sufficient for the apportionment of groundwater contamination sources. Factor analysis (FA) determined three factors with 81.07% in total variance: Factor 1 for seawater contamination, Factor 2 for nitrate contamination, and Factor 3 for iron contamination. Factor analysis determined the sources of groundwater contamination; however, it could not discover the origins of contaminants except Factor 1. In backward stepwise mode, discriminant analysis decreased the number of parameters from 18 to 6 in discriminating the contaminant type with 96.2% correctness. TDS, Ca, NO3, Mn, Fe, and Br were the most significant parameters for the discrimination of contaminants. Kriging analysis was very useful for the understanding of correlation and similarity between contaminants and factors of FA, and for the investigation of contaminant origins. It also showed that the similarity between factor scores and contaminant concentrations was proportional to the magnitudes of factor loadings for contaminants. This study represented that the combined analyses of chemometrics and kriging were very indispensable to the identification of groundwater contamination sources and origins, as well as for the spatial classification and assessment of groundwater quality. 相似文献
164.
Jae-Seok Kim Anna Liza Bais Sun-hee Kang Jaehoon Lee Kihong Park 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2011,68(3):251-263
Ammonia has a short residence time in the atmosphere and rapidly neutralizes acid gases that occur near its source, requiring a rapid measurement system for ammonia and particulate ammonium concentrations to better understand their sources, temporal variation of ammonia emissions, and the formation of secondary ammonium aerosols. A semi-continuous measurement system, consisting of a diffusion scrubber, a particle growth chamber, an air-liquid separator, and a fluorescent detector, was developed to determine both gaseous ammonia (NH3) and particulate ammonium (NH 4 + ) in PM2.5 in the ambient atmosphere of Gwangju, South Korea, during the months of March, April, July, and September of 2007. During the sampling periods, the average concentrations of ammonia and ammonium were found to be 2.33?±?1.29 μg/m3 and 1.89?±?0.99 μg/m3, respectively. Although the average gaseous ammonia concentration was highest in March, the particulate ammonium concentration was higher during the warmer season, reaching 2.08?±?1.07 μg/m3 and 2.32?±?0.94 μg/m3 in April and July, respectively, while only 1.68?±?0.61 μg/m3 in March and 1.24?±?0.99 μg/m3 in September. It is proposed that the higher availability of acid species during the warmer months produced a significant amount of particulate ammonium sulfate. Diurnal fluctuation of ammonia and ammonium during the warmer months showed that their peak time occurred at approximately 10:00 am. Both ammonia and ammonium concentrations were better correlated during the warmer months than during the cooler months. Further, the data suggest that the ammonia and ammonium were measured under well dispersed conditions, and multiple sources contributed to the ammonia at the sampling site. 相似文献
165.
Su-Jong Jeong Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Jinwon Kim Samuel Levis 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):821-833
This study examines the potential impact of vegetation feedback on the changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) due to the doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations during summer over the Northern Hemisphere using a global climate model equipped with a dynamic vegetation model. Results show that CO2 doubling induces significant increases in the daily mean temperature and decreases in DTR regardless of the presence of the vegetation feedback effect. In the presence of vegetation feedback, increase in vegetation productivity related to warm and humid climate lead to (1) an increase in vegetation greenness in the mid-latitude and (2) a greening and the expansion of grasslands and boreal forests into the tundra region in the high latitudes. The greening via vegetation feedback induces contrasting effects on the temperature fields between the mid- and high-latitude regions. In the mid-latitudes, the greening further limits the increase in T max more than T min, resulting in further decreases in DTR because the greening amplifies evapotranspiration and thus cools daytime temperature. The greening in high-latitudes, however, it reinforces the warming by increasing T max more than T min to result in a further increase in DTR from the values obtained without vegetation feedback. This effect on T max and DTR in the high latitude is mainly attributed to the reduction in surface albedo and the subsequent increase in the absorbed insolation. Present study indicates that vegetation feedback can alter the response of the temperature field to increases in CO2 mainly by affecting the T max and that its effect varies with the regional climate characteristics as a function of latitudes. 相似文献
166.
Md. Sharwar Murshed Sangil Kim Jeong-Soo Park 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(7):897-911
The beta-κ distribution is a distinct case of the generalized beta distribution of the second kind. In previous studies, beta-p and beta-κ distributions have played important roles in representing extreme events, and thus, the present paper uses the
beta-κ distribution. Further, this paper uses the method of moments and the method of L-moments to estimate the parameters
from the beta-κ distribution, and to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model, the paper presents a simulation study
using three estimation methods (including the maximum likelihood estimation method) and beta-κ and non beta-κ samples. In
addition, this paper evaluates the performance of the beta-κ distribution by employing two widely used extreme value distributions
(i.e., the GEV and Gumbel distributions) and two sets of actual data on extreme events. 相似文献
167.
A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Boksoon Myoung Yong-Sang Choi Seon Ki Park 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(5):463-475
The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson’s rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed. 相似文献
168.
Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business
interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy
has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption)
loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production
after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated
sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework
for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously
been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum
recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is
a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the
maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow
a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over
time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption
time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical
data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using
simulation methods. 相似文献
169.
Ji-ning Song Lin Lu Bin Teng Han-il Park Guo-qiang Tang Hao Wu 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(11-12):1308-1322
Laboratory tests have been conducted on vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a long flexible riser towed horizontally in a wave basin. The riser model has an external diameter of 16 mm and a total length of 28.0 m giving an aspect ratio of about 1750. Reynolds numbers ranged from about 3000 to 10,000. Fiber optic grating strain gages are adopted to measure the dynamic response in both cross-flow and in-line directions. The cross-flow vibrations were observed to vibrate at modes up to 6 and the in-line reached up to 12. The fundamental response frequencies can be predicted by a Strouhal number of about 0.18. Multi-mode responses and the asymmetry of the bare pipe response in uniform flow were observed and analyzed. The experimental results confirmed that the riser pipe vibrated multi-modally despite it being subject to a uniform current profile and all of the excited modes vibrated at the Strouhal frequency. The asymmetrical distribution of displacement mainly resulted from the modal composition. Higher harmonics of the VIV response such as the third, fourth and fifth harmonics frequencies were found to be steady over the entire duration of the test even if they varied along the length of the riser pipe. 相似文献
170.
Byung-Hak Cho Dong-Soon Yang Shin-Yeol Park Kyung-Shik Choi Do-Hwan Lee Seung-Hyun Byun Hoon Jung 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(2-3):436-443
The modeling and control of a variable liquid-column oscillator having a liquid filled U-tube with air chambers at its vertical columns are presented. As an ocean wave energy extracting device, the structure of the variable liquid-column oscillator (VLCO) is analogous to that of the tuned liquid-column damper used to suppress oscillatory motion in large structures like tall buildings and cargo ships. However, owing to an air spring effect caused by the dynamic pressure of air chambers, the amplitude of response of the VLCO becomes significantly amplified for a desired wave period. The governing equations for the motion of VLCO structure under wave excitation and the motion of liquid with an air spring effect caused by an air–liquid interaction are described by a series of nonlinear differential equations. A set of control parameters for extracting maximum power from various wave conditions is determined for the efficient operation of the VLCO. It is found that the effect of the air spring has an important role to play in making the oscillation of the VLCO match with the ocean wave. In this way, the VLCO provides the most effective mode for extracting energy from the ocean wave. 相似文献