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131.
132.
Jenő Reiczigel Katharina Brugger Franz Rubel Norbert Solymosi Zsolt Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(3):455-462
The Usutu virus is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes and causing disease in birds. The virus was detected in Austria
for the first time in 2001, while a major outbreak occurred in 2003. Rubel et al. (2008) developed a nine-compartment deterministic SEIR model to explain the spread of the disease. We extended this to a hierarchical
Bayes model assuming random variation in temperature data, in reproduction data of birds, and in the number of birds found
to be infected. The model was implemented in R, combined with the FORTRAN subroutine for the original deterministic model.
Analysis was made by MCMC using a random walk Metropolis scheme. Posterior means, medians, and credible intervals were calculated
for the parameters. The hierarchical Bayes approach proved to be fruitful in extending the deterministic model into a stochastic
one. It allowed for Bayesian point and interval estimation and quantification of uncertainty of predictions. The analysis
revealed that some model parameters were not identifiable; therefore we kept constant some of them and analyzed others conditional
on them. Identifiability problems are common in models aiming to mirror the mechanism of the process, since parameters with
natural interpretation are likely to exhibit interrelationships. This study illustrated that Bayesian modeling combined with
conditional analysis may help in those cases. Its application to the Usutu model improved model fit and revealed the structure
of interdependencies between model parameters: it demonstrated that determining some of them experimentally would enable estimation
of the others, except one of them, from available data. 相似文献
133.
Asteroids can be considered as sources of contamination of point sources and also sources of confusion noise, depending whether their presence is detected in the image or their flux is under the detection limit. We estimate that at low ecliptic latitudes, ≈10,000–20,000 asteroids/sq. degree will be detected with an E-ELT like telescope, while by the end of Spitzer and Herschel missions, infrared space observatories will provide ≈100,000 serendipitous asteroid detections. The detection and identification of asteroids is therefore an important step in survey astronomy. 相似文献
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137.
Dezső Nagy 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1965,62(1):5-12
Summary A computational scheme has been derived to generateHeuman's Lambda function. This has been applied to compute the gravitational attraction of a right vertical circular cylinder. Test computations show that the error introduced by assuming a semifinite cylinder in place of a finite one of depth 30 times its radius is 1.77%. 相似文献
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139.
Tin Lukić Dajana Bjelajac Kathryn E. Fitzsimmons Slobodan B. Marković Biljana Basarin Dragan Mlađan Tanja Micić Randall J. Schaetzl Milivoj B. Gavrilov Miško Milanović György Sipos Gábor Mezősi Nevenka Knežević-Lukić Miroljub Milinčić Aleš Létal Ivan Samardžić 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(13):519
Among the numerous factors that trigger landslide events, the anthropogenic impact caused by inadequate planning and faulty land use in urban areas is increasing. The Zemun settlement on the northern outskirts of Belgrade has experienced a number of landslides in the last three decades, endangering buildings and roads, and claiming human lives, particularly in the case of the 2010/2011 landslides. Selected meteorological parameters were used to calculate rainfall erosivity indices such as Precipitation Concentration Index and Modified Fournier Index over the period 1991–2015. Drought indices, Lang aridity index and Palfai Drought Index were calculated as well. Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to identify potential rising and/or declining trends both in meteorological parameters and calculated indices. Trend analysis of the annual and seasonal scales yielded a statistically significant trend in the spring time series. Stable arid and pronounced drought conditions were recorded. The modified Fournier index based on monthly mean values yields moderate aggressiveness, with several extreme values indicating very high erosivity classes, especially for 2010/2011. The geological substrate is predominantly loess and hence highly susceptible to erosion and slope failure when climatological conditions are suitable. Accelerated urbanization at the end of the last century reduced vegetation cover, intensified pressure on the vertical loess slope, and lacked suitable rain drainage systems so that surface-water runoff was directed into the porous loess, thereby endangering slope stability. We proposed a geomorphic model to describe the nature of the erosional processes on the loess cliffs of the Zemun loess plateau. Results from this study have implications for mitigation strategies. 相似文献
140.
László Szabó Ágnes Kelemen András Mezősi Zsuzsanna Pató Enikő Kácsor Gustav Resch 《Climate Policy》2019,19(4):495-510
One of the most important challenges for the South East Europe region will be replacing more than 30% of its presently installed fossil fuel generation capacity by the end of 2030, and more than 95% by 2050 if its age structure is considered. This requires a strong policy framework to incentivise new investments in a region currently lacking investors, but also presents an opportunity to shape the electricity sector over the long term according to the broader energy transition strategy of the EU and the Energy Community. The aim of this paper is to assess what type of long-term pathways exist for electricity sector development in the region if they follow the energy transition process of the EU. In this model-based scenario assessment, long term electricity sector futures are explored using a set of interlinked electricity models evaluating the level of renewable energy investment required in the region to reach a deep decarbonization target, assuming emission reduction above 94% by 2050 compared to 1990 in line with the long term market integration and climate policy goals of the EU. It also explores what are the most important system wide impacts of the high deployment of renewable energy concerning generation adequacy and security of supply.
Key policy insights
Energy policies in the South East Europe (SEE) region, both at the national and regional level, should focus on enabling renewable energy integration, as this will be a key component of the future energy mix.
EU and Energy Community policies should be incorporated into national energy planning to ensure that SEE countries embark on the energy transition process at an early stage.
Stranded costs should be carefully considered in decision-making on new fossil-fuel generation and gas network investment in order to avoid lock-in to carbon intensive technologies.
If consistent decarbonization policy prevails, with a significant and persistent CO2 price signal, the role of natural gas remains transitory in the region.
The SEE region offers relatively cheap decarbonization options: the power sector can reduce GHG emissions above 94% by 2050 in the modelled scenarios.