ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）     

ZHANGXue-qin GEQuan-sheng ZHENGJing-yun 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):207-215

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.  相似文献   

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

TRIFFID observations of the cores of the three globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712     

S. Ó Tuairisg  R. F. Butler  A. Shearer  R. M. Redfern  D. Butler  A. Penny 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(3):960-980

We present the results of TRIFFID simultaneous V - and B -band observations of the cores of the globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712. A variability search of their dense centres was made feasible through performing post-exposure image sharpening on the images, increasing the image resolution by a factor of ∼2. The isis implementation of the image subtraction technique developed by Alard & Lupton was then used to detect flux variations in our image sets. We have obtained periods for all observable variables (in our field of view) in NGC 6712 and we have found two new RR Lyrae variables (an RRab and an RRc). We have confirmed three variables in our field of view of the M92. For M15, we detect 48 variables in our field of view, 23 of which are new discoveries. We obtain periods and amplitudes for all variables and classify new ones based on the light-curve shape, the most significant period and the mean magnitude in the V band. Among the detected RR Lyrae we find 19 RRc, 12 RRab and two RRd types. In the subsequent analysis we find a marked increase in RRc over RRab variables in the core. In a refined procedure to search for fainter objects we find no dwarf novae in our field of view of M15. Simulations performed on the data set to quantify our sensitivity to such objects indicate that an upper limit of 10 dwarf novae (at 92 per cent probability) exist in our field of view. The implications this result has on globular clusters are discussed.  相似文献   

WR 7a: a V Sagittae or a qWR star?     

A. S. Oliveira  J. E. Steiner  D. Cieslinski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(3):963-967

The star WR 7a, also known as SPH 2, has a spectrum that resembles that of V Sagittae stars although no O  vi emission has been reported. The Temporal Variance Spectrum – TVS – analysis of our data shows weak but strongly variable emission of O  vi lines which is below the noise level in the intensity spectrum.
Contrary to what is seen in V Sagittae stars, optical photometric monitoring shows very little, if any, flickering. We found evidence of periodic variability. The most likely photometric period is   P _phot= 0.227(±14) d  , while radial velocities suggest a period of   P _spec= 0.204(±13) d  . One-day aliases of these periods can not be ruled out. We call attention to similarities with HD 45166 and DI Cru (= WR 46), where multiple periods are present. They may be associated to the binary motion or to non-radial oscillations.
In contrast to a previous conclusion by Pereira et al., we show that WR 7a contains hydrogen. The spectrum of the primary star seems to be detectable as the N  v 4604 Å  absorption line is visible. If so, it means that the wind is optically thin in the continuum and that it is likely to be a helium main sequence star.
Given the similarity to HD 45166, we suggests that WR 7a may be a qWR – quasi Wolf–Rayet – star. Its classification is WN4h/CE in the Smith, Shara & Moffat three-dimensional classification system.  相似文献   

Shapelets – II. A method for weak lensing measurements     

Alexandre Refregier  David Bacon 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(1):48-56

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The fundamental plane of ellipticals – I. The dark matter connection     

Annamaria Borriello  Paolo Salucci  Luigi Danese 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(4):1109-1120

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Asteroseismological studies of three β Cephei stars: IL Vel, V433 Car and KZ Mus     

G. Handler  R. R. Shobbrook  F. F. Vuthela  L. A. Balona  F. Rodler  T. Tshenye 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(3):1005-1019

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The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1     

M Grande  R BrowningN Waltham  D ParkerS.K Dunkin  B KentB Kellett  C.H PerryB Swinyard  A PerryJ Feraday  C HoweG McBride  K PhillipsJ Huovelin  P MuhliP.J Hakala  O VilhuJ Laukkanen  N ThomasD Hughes  H AlleyneM Grady  R LundinS Barabash  D BakerP.E Clark  C.D MurrayJ Guest  I CasanovaL.C d'Uston  S MauriceB Foing  D.J Heather  V FernandesK Muinonen  S.S RussellA Christou  C OwenP Charles  H KoskinenM Kato  K SipilaS Nenonen  M HolmstromN Bhandari  R ElphicD Lawrence 《Planetary and Space Science》2003,51(6):427-433

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.  相似文献   

Palaeo-ice streams: an introduction     

Chris D. Clark  David J. A. Evans  Jan A. Piotrowski 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2003,32(1):1-3

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Mezen Bay—a key area for understanding Weichselian glaciations in northern Russia     

Kurt H. Kjr  Igor N. Demidov  Eiliv Larsen  Andrew Murray  Jan K. Nielsen 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(1):73-93

Sediment successions in coastal cliffs around Mezen Bay, southeastern White Sea, record an unusually detailed history of former glaciations, interstadial marine and fluvial events from the Weichselian. A regional glaciation model for the Weichselian is based on new data from the Mezen Bay area and previously published data from adjacent areas. Following the Mikulinian (Eemian) interglacial a shelf‐centred glaciation in the Kara Sea is reflected in proglacial conditions at 100–90 ka. A local ice‐cap over the Timan ridge existed between 75 and 65 ka. Renewed glaciation in the Kara Sea spread southwestwards around 60 ka only, interrupted by a marine inundation, before it advanced to its maximum position at about 55–50 ka. After a prolonged ice‐free period, the Scandinavian ice‐sheet invaded the area from the west and terminated east of Mezen Bay about 17 ka. The previously published evidence of a large ice‐dammed lake in the central Arkhangelsk region, Lake Komi, finds no support in this study. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献